Laurel Park picks and ponderings September 29, 2019

by | Sep 29, 2019 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Anna’s Bandit. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

by Frank Vespe

In which we pick the races from Laurel Park each day…

Post time: 12:25 p.m.

Carryovers: Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 — None; Super High 5 — $1,448; Late Pick 5 — $6,211

Notable: The Jackpot Pick 6 was hit yesterday for $23,136, so it starts anew today.

ANALYSIS

RACE 1 

A trip to the Spa could net #2 Prosperity (3-1) no better than fourth- and fifth-place finishes, but both were credible efforts, and the more recent has produced a next-out winner. She should find this company a bit more manageable, and her breeding — Tapit out of a Distorted Humor mare — says the added ground here should be no problem… We’ll give another crack to #6 Celestial Dream (6-1), who finished fourth last time out at Colonial; she was hung out wide throughout, and the winner of that race, Ledecka, came back to win a minor stake at PID…

Selections: 2-6-1-10

RACE 2 

Why can’t #1 Merry Maid (6-1) win in this spot? Granted, it took her 26 tries to break her maiden, but it was only her second try on turf, and she won off by six lengths. In her follow-up, she ran a good second in allowance company, and the winner, Dance or Stroll, returned to be a better-than-it-seems sixth in the Sensible Lady Turf Dash, beaten just three lengths by the redoubtable Goldwood… Of course, the favorite #2 Judi Blue Eyes (7-2) rates a big shot off a runner-up effort at this level…

Selections: 1-2-3-11

RACE 3

Low-level claiming sorts tangle in the third, and the fave here is the class-dropping #6 Rag Top (9-5), who has to be on the ticket but who has lost two straight versus similar. We’ll try to beat her with #5 Two Step Sis (5-1), who’s on the improve for trainer Cal Lynch and has won two of three. It seems notable that Lynch’s go-to rider, Trevor McCarthy, has ridden this runner only once, in her debut, but hops back aboard today…

Selections: 5-6-2-7

ANALYSIS

RACE 4

Off a third-place finish in the Stormy Blues Stakes followed by a win in the Miss Disco, #2 Introduced (7-5) appears to be a different class of runner than these and should handle this group to dispose of her first allowance condition… Her main threat looks to be the formful #9 Go Magician Go (7-2), who’s won three of four…

Selections: 2-9-5-1

RACE 5

Trainer Graham Motion could send out a couple of maiden winners today if #2 Phantom Dance (5-2) can step forward here after a rough-trip fourth at Woodbine. She got banged around leaving the gate and then put in tight in the lane but kept trying to the wire… Thinking #10 Degas (8-1) can take a step forward if she’s a bit more settled today… #6 Hero’s Return (6-1) is a half-sib to 3-for-4 Olympic Village, a two-time winner at two…#1 Law of the Land (9-2) is a half to a couple of stakes horses, one of which earned over $600,000…

Selections: 2-10-6-1

RACE 6 

In her first North American start, #1 Marshall Law (8-1) closed nicely to break his maiden at Colonial Downs going 1 1/4 miles, and he managed that despite a slow pace up ahead. That presages well for this 12-furlong affair in his first contest versus winners… Favorite #7 Bobby G (5-2) isn’t showing a turf race on the page but did break his maiden on the green stuff. His breeding suggests the distance should be in his scope, and he has run at least one decent race going 10 furlongs on the main track… Another who may offer value is #5 Barin (20-1), who’ll need a bounceback effort but who, five back, ran third at this level and distance…

Selections: 1-7-9-5

ANALYSIS

RACE 7 

Trainer Ham Smith had two runners entered in this maiden claimer but has scratched one of them, leaving only #9 What a Tart (6-1). This Done Talking filly will try the main track for the first time after two ok efforts on the lawn… His major competition looks to come from #7 Stylish Ninetynine (9-2), who flashed speed before tiring on debut and gets Lasix for the first time today…

Selections: 9-7-3-2

RACE 8 

It’ll be the third start off a layoff and first time in the Claudio Gonzalez barn for #4 My Aunt Tillie (4-1), who’s receiving major class relief in this spot, dropping from open $25,000 runners at Del Mar to $16,000, never-won-three types here. She should appreciate the break… If not, why not #1 Let’s Go Baby (6-1), who lands in the right spot two races after winning for $25,000?

Selections: 4-1-5-10

RACE 9 

It may be nothing, but we were intrigued enough by seeing leading rider Trevor McCarthy get off the Jane Cibelli-trained favorite, #1 Payntdembluesaway (5-2), and onto #3 Turko Treat (5-1), a pretty nondescript runner, to make the latter our top choice here. But don’t leave the chalk off your ticket… Thinking #4 Grand Skylark (6-1) can build off that good first turf try for trainer Susan Conney, in which she led a long way before tiring at 25-1 odds… Random observation: this race also is a battle of the Doozies, with It’s a Doozy (20-1) and Tizadoozi (20-1) squaring off…

Selections: 3-1-4-6

RACE 10

It’s an aggressive move, but not necessarily alarmingly so, for trainer Jose Corrales to drop #5 Masai Man (9-5) from allowance company at the Big T all the way into this $16,000 group, and if he runs to his previous couple, he should be tough. Corrales is 5-for-20 (with seven others in the money) dropping from allowance to claiming company… Let’s give a shot to the Bob Klesaris-trained #6 One More Tom (12-1) to outrun his odds. The More Than Ready gelding has some decent efforts in his background, and while his last — his first in seven months — was not promising, it seems notable that Klesaris liked what he was seeing enough to bring this one back waiving the claiming tag. He should be more cranked up today…

Selections: 5-6-3-2

RACE 11

In his first try on turf, #3 Cast the Lot (2-1) ripped off a 22 3/5 opening quarter and still stuck with it until very late before fading to fourth. That’s a solid effort to build on, and he’ll get hot-riding Sheldon Russell up today… We’ll use the logical #2 Cark (4-1), who should be fine with the added ground today, on the ticket; and we’ll give another crack to #10 Little Bay (30-1), who ran a little bit late on debut, gets added ground he should like, and will have Lasix for the first time…

Selections: 3-2-10-8

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About The Author

Frank Vespe

Frank Vespe, the founder and publisher of The Racing Biz, has owned, bought, sold, claimed, written, and talked about horses, in varying combinations, for a decade. Email him at [email protected] or follow him on twitter @TheRacingBiz.

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