LAUREL PARK PICKS AND PONDERINGS: april 20, 2024
In which we pick the races from Laurel Park each day…
Post time: 12:25 p.m.
Carryovers:
Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 —$4,751
Jackpot Super High 5 — $3,083
Late Pick 5 — $0
Check out our other handicapping here!
RACE 1: CLAIMING $30,000 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 7 FURLONGS
7-6-4-2
We’ve got 11 races on the Tesio day slate. Let’s get the party started! #7 I Can Do It (3-1) took a big swing in Maryland-restricted allowance company last out, and didn’t fire nearly her best shot. However, she was an impressive maiden winner three starts ago, then finished a solid-closing third despite being rank early on two starts back. Her peak performance wins this. #6 Solving Progress (7-5) tried 1 1/16 miles first off a 7 1/2-month layoff last out. She set the pace before tiring badly. She showed some promise as a 3-year-old last year, and should be much better off at this distance and class level. #4 Maddie Ten (10-1) has improved with each recent race, and lasted through an early duel to break her maiden at sixth asking last out. That race was going a mile; she might benefit from a cutback to seven furlongs.
RACE 2: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 5 1/2 FURLONGS (GRASS)
9-4-8-11
#9 Caroline Krystyna (3-1) made waves when she broke her maiden in gate-to-wire fashion on the Black-Eyed Susan day undercard last year, but hasn’t found the winner’s circle since, though she more than held her own at this level in subsequent starts. She’s making her first start of the year in this spot, and fortunately for her, most of the other major contenders also haven’t raced in a while. #4 Wise and Elegant (6-1) is one of two in here who has raced on grass this year. She’s just missed in each of her last two starts against non-winners of two types at Gulfstream Park. It took her a little while to get going last out, but when she does, she accelerated strongly and surged in the final strides. #8 Golden Heart (7-2) was a three-time winner on the Delaware Park grass last year, and chased the pace to finish third in her final start of the year, the Maryland Million Ladies. She’s run well going one turn before, and Gary Capuano is sharp first off a long break, but he might be thinking of this race more as a prep for a two-turn spot down the road.
- What we learned on Maryland Juvenile Stakes dayHere’s what we learned at Laurel Park for Saturday’s Maryland Juvenile and Maryland Juvenile Filly Stakes.
RACE 3: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $12,500, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS
1-5-4-7
#1 Big Rowdy Dan (9-5) lost by a half-length at this level last out despite encountering some traffic trouble in the stretch. He’s racing first off the Anthony Farrior claim today. #5 Austin From Boston (4-1) bounced back nicely last out, closing from the center of the track to win a non-winners of three claiming affair with a solid brisnet figure of 78. He ran a bit higher than that last year, so it’s likely he can improve third off the bench. #4 Addy’s Laddy T N T (7-2) nosed out Big Rowdy Dan for second two starts back, and finished fourth behind better rivals at this condition in his most recent try.
RACE 4: CLAIMING $40,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS, 1 1/16 MILES
3-5-7-2
Many of these are exiting the same race at this condition on March 29. #3 Derbyness (8-5) won easily that day, coming from off the pace to win going away with a new career-best mark of 86, a slight improvement from the 85 he earned in a sharp score two starts back. He should be able to swoop the field once again. #5 Raika (3-1) finished second to Derbyness that day, running a career-best figure of his own in 83. He’s gotten better with each of his three career starts, and looks for further improvement in his two-turn debut. #7 Magical Monarch (7-2), a stablemate of Derbyness’s, has won three in a row with rapidly ascending figures, including a gate-to-wire win against softer in his most recent try. This will be his biggest class test so far.
RACE 5: DAHLIA STAKES, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 MILE (GRASS)
1-8-5-7
The first stakes of the day is named for the champion mare of the mid-1970s. #1 Five Towns (6-1) ran a nice race on the Tapeta at Gulfstream second off the layoff last out, kicking on in the last jumps to win, in a visually much-improved effort from her American debut two starts ago. She showed promise in her native England last year, and could be on the precipice of a big effort here. #8 Safeen (5-2) was a two-time stakes winner on grass in the Midwest last year, and makes her first start since Mrs. Revere Stakes last fall in this spot. Her closing kick didn’t have as much punch against better towards the end of her campaign, but facing these types, she should be able to kick on and be a late threat.
RACE 6: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 6 FURLONGS
3-7-2-1
#3 Royal Seamstress (8-5) has a gigantic figure edge on these. She’s run in the 80s in each of her last three starts, something only two of her rivals have ever done on dirt at any point in their careers. She pressed the pace and got up to win a Maryland-bred allowance last out, defeating next-out winner Devil Pays in Gold in the process. #7 How Sweet She Is (5-2) was visually unimpressive in her first start off a 4 1/2-month layoff last out, but still ran a career-best mark of 78, and was a fast-closing third in her 2023 finale at Presque Isle Downs. #2 Mo Traffic (8-1) didn’t do much in her first start off a seven-month break at Charles Town last out, but ran some solid numbers in the mid-70s last year, and has solid late pace figures.
- Maryland Juvenile: A mystery solved, decades laterSaturday’s Maryland Juvenile Stakes should be a fun race, but it’s unlikely to launch the careers of two Classic winners, like the 1982 edition did.
RACE 7: KING LEATHERBURY STAKES, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 5 1/2 FURLONGS (GRASS)
5-10-7-4
Fittingly, the man who bred, owned, and trained Ben’s Cat gets a grass sprint named after him. #5 Witty (6-1) has a strong closing kick, and that will play well in a race loaded with speed. He closed off fast fractions on a grass course labeled “firm” but taking on water in the Maryland Million Turf Sprint last fall on this track. #10 Outlaw Kid (5-1) goes out for the first time since September 16. He ran in the 90s steadily last year in New York and at Woodbine, capping his grass season with a stalk-and-pounce win in the Vice Regent Stakes. He’s worked well for a while at Palm Beach Downs getting ready for this spot, and he looks live as long as he runs close to his race first off the layoff. #7 Future is Now (7-2) ran a pair of huge races on the lead at Gulfstream Park in her last two efforts, including a near-miss in the Captiva Island Stakes last out for her first stakes placing. If anyone is going to last through a destructive pace, it’s her.
RACE 8: WEBER CITY MISS STAKES, 3-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 1 1/16 MILES
5-3-4-6
The final local Black-Eyed Susan prep is named for the star Maryland-bred filly of the early 1980s. Fittingly, I’ve got a Maryland-bred on top. #5 Determined Driver (7-2) made a powerful move to win the Beyond the Wire Stakes going away last out, running a career-best 95. She’s never gone beyond a mile, but the way she’s been improving despite increasingly longer distances suggests this shouldn’t be a problem. #3 Jeanne Marie (15-1) went gate-to-wire to win the mile and 70-yard Main Line Stakes last out, in what was both her 3-year-old debut and her first start beyond 4 1/2 furlongs. It’ll be a tougher task to wire this field, but to run that big facing such a big test is encouraging. #4 Shimmering Allure (9-5) has the class edge over these, having faced the likes of Leslie’s Rose and Just F Y I in the Ashland Stakes last out. She didn’t make much of a dent against that group, but matched her career-best mark of 89, which contends against these.
RACE 9: HENRY CLARK STAKES, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 MILE (GRASS)
4-5-7-6
We’re back to the grass for a race named for a Hall of Fame trainer (and namesake of a bookshelf at the Maryland Horse Library & Education Center). #4 Forever Souper (5-2) kicked on to win the Esmark Turf Classic Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs last out, with a very strong 97. He’ll in prime shape to sit another pretty trip today. #5 English Bee (9-2) has gotten outkicked in his first two starts of the year, but has recent experience, a high ceiling, and is a Graham Motion horse in a Maryland stakes, which means he can’t be discounted. #7 Heaven Street (15-1) is largely unproven around two turns, but has lots of early speed, and is a threat to wire this group.
RACE 10: FEDERICO TESIO STAKES, 3-YEAR-OLDS, 1 1/8 MILES
2-1-11-9
The legendary Italian breeder is honored with this race, a “win and you’re in” for the Preakness in four weeks’ time. #2 Celtic Contender (20-1) broke his maiden in very impressive style two races ago, then was pinched back at the start of the Private Terms, lost forward position, and didn’t do much from there. If he breaks cleanly today, he’ll get a nice trip sitting just off of #1 Speedyness (6-1), who is likely to set the early pace, and based on what we saw two races ago, could pack a serious punch at a price. Speedyness led most of the way in the Private Terms, his first start going two turns, and ended up beaten a neck. I’m not sure how much distance he wants, but he’ll at least get an idyllic trip. #11 Copper Tax (7-2) took a drop in class in the Private Terms following two graded stakes tries, and rallied boldly to get up and win with a career-best 98. He ran some big races as a 2-year-old last year going two turns, and looks like the type who thrives in these mid-level 3-year-old races. If he can avoid losing too much ground from his far outside post, he’s got a good shot to repeat his Private Terms performance.
RACE 11: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, 1 MILE (GRASS)
11-3-6-9
Local knowledge pays off when dissecting the form of #11 Mission North (8-1). Though it doesn’t show up in his running lines, he made his 2024 debut two weeks ago at the Old Dominion Hounds Point-to-Point in 1 1/4-mile amateur flat race. He beat four others that day, all of whom were winners, setting him up nicely for this spot. He improved sharply in his most recent sanctioned grass start last November at Pimlico, running a career-best 85. #3 Primed to Go (4-1) surged and just missed in his two starts on this track last fall, and has worked well for his return for Jorge Duarte. #6 Righthere Rightnow (7-2) had a bit of a bumpy trip in his grass debut at Fair Grounds last out, but still ran on well and just missed third behind Bolt From Above, who broke his maiden on grass next out.
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