Delaware Park picks and analysis: September 28, 2023

Live racing at Delaware Park kicks off May 24 and runs through late October.

Once again this year, we will have Delaware Park picks and analysis for every day of live racing at the venerable track. Today’s card features eight races, and first post is 12:30 EDT.

Today’s carryovers: None

Race #1 Picks: 5-2-7-4

In this $38,000 maiden special race for two-year-old fillies at 5 ½ furlongs, #5 Tiz Race Day (12-1) showed early speed and faded. She has several works since that race. Axel Concepcion is back on top, and we think there will be a big improvement today. #2 Hopesndreams (6-1) ran very well in her debut race but did not do as well in the slop in her second try. We think she will improve in her third start, and she looks like a contender. #7 Belle’s Blue Bell (8-1) is a first-time-starter that has been working well for the last couple of months. Trainer Carlos David has four wins in six attempts at Delaware this year. 

Race #2 Picks: 5-3-8-1

In this optional claiming/starter allowance race for fillies and mares at one mile and 70 yards, #5 Carroll Girl (3-1) has been running well with two victories and a second-place finish in her last three starts at Delaware. Her previous trainer, Michael Gorham, claimed her back in her last race, and we are looking for a big effort today. #3 Big Cheeks (5-2) just had a nice win at Parx after being freshened. She should continue that good form today and is a contender. #8 Baby Gundin (6-1) is a presser who finished 3 ½ lengths behind Big Cheeks in last. If the front speed does not hold up, this horse could take advantage.

Race #3 Picks: 8-2-6-4

In this $6250 claiming race for fillies and mares at one mile, #8 Dance Step (3-1) ran a closing third at this level in last and had several good races at Monmouth. We think this filly has a good chance to win today. #2 Merger of Equals (2-1) won going away in an N2L race here two back. That was by far her best race, but she may not need to repeat that effort to win again today. #6 Catalena (4-1) seems to be improving and should be in the mix today. Won last race here at Delaware by two lengths.


Race #4 Picks: 12-7-9-8

In this $6250 claiming race at one mile, if #12 The Bearrish One (7-2), who is also eligible, draws in, he is our top pick. He has some solid races at Monmouth this summer and has superior speed figures to the rest of this field. He will be making his first start for Michael Simone after the claim; he has won at 20% in 40 tries on first after a claim. #7 Ruthenian (12-1) won his last race and has been in the mix in all his races here this summer. He has been in the top two in five of his nine lifetime races at Delaware Park. #9 Assert Dominance (6-1) showed some flashes of speed at Colonial Downs and could be in the mix.

Race #5 Picks: 3-8-9-6

This $100,000 allowance race for Delaware certified fillies and mares at six furlongs is very competitive, and there are many contenders.  #3 Malibu Beauty (3-1) has been solid against tough competition. She ran second in the Timonium Distaff Stakes in last. She should improve in her third race back from an extended absence and she looks well placed here. #8 Intrepid Daydream (5-1) is a very consistent filly who seldom runs a bad race. She was very competitive in two recent $100,000 stakes races and won last out. She will run with the pace today and will be in contention in the stretch. A top contender. #9 Street Lute (4-1) has not won recently but has had some good races in Maryland, and her speed figure look very competitive with his group. She has run well against strong competition.

Joe’s Notes

  • Wednesday was a day of chalk at Delaware. The last five races went to odds-on favorites, and the late Pick 5 returned just $7.60 for a 50-cent wager…
  • Father Gary and son Phil Capuano took the two $100,000 Delaware certified events Wednesday. Gary has five more entered in today’s two Del-certified events…

Race #6 Picks: 2-3-7-1

In this optional claiming/starter allowance race at one mile, #2 Captain Quint (8-1) seems to be rounding into form. He was away for four months and then faced tougher than he will face today. He was running very well in Maryland earlier this year and may have a slight class edge over this field. #3 Affable Monarch (5-2) has a win and a place finish in two starts at Delaware Park. He found a $100,000 stakes race at Monmouth a little too tough, but fits very well here. A top contender. #7 Parkerness (7-2) won at this class level two back but faltered last time out. Adding blinkers today which might help.

Race #7 Picks: 13-10-3-7

In this $100,000 allowance race for Delaware certified horses at six furlongs, #13 Take a Hint (10-1) is a sprint specialist that has never run worse than second in six lifetime races. Paco Lopez (42% at Delaware this year) gets the mount. #10 Tappin Cat (7-2) has been running in routes recently but does have three wins in eleven tries at this distance and six wins at fourteen races at Delaware Park. His speed figures indicate he will be a contender. #3 Take Charge Too (12-1) is having a good year with three wins and a second in five races. He has lots of early speed and will be setting the pace. He should be able to hang on for a piece of the pie. 

Race #8 Picks: 4-6-2-9

In this $6250 N2L claiming Race for fillies and mares at 5 ½ furlongs, #4 Mighty Gin Gin (6-1) is moving down in class after struggling in an optional claiming race at Penn National. If she can match her winning maiden race, she has a good shot today. #6 Push (5-1) showed early speed in a $10,000 claiming race at Colonial Downs and might be able to hold that speed against this group.  #2 Sundog (12-1) left the maiden ranks after thirteen attempts and will now move down the claiming ladder.