Experts’ Kentucky Derby picks

  • userThe Biz
  • dateMay 3, 2024

Saturday’s 150th renewal of the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby is expected to have a full gate of 20 runners, as has become de rigeur in recent years. As is also the custom, some of them appear, on paper at least, to have little or no shot at wearing roses.

Who does have a shot at the roses? Well, that’s the question, isn’t it?

We asked our experts for their selections, and here is the consensus analysis:

  1. #11 Forever Young – Japanese invader is undefeated in five career starts and would make history as the first horse to prep in Dubai to wear the roses.
  2. #17 Fierceness – Morning line favorite aims to give trainer Todd Pletcher and owner Mike Repole redemption after their runner last year, morning line favorite Forte, was scratched the day of the race. A clean trip could make this one a winner; a less clean trip could leave him up the track.
  3. #4 Catching Freedom – Louisiana Derby winner closed sharply that day despite not having much pace to run into, not too dissimilar to his outing when third behind Sierra Leone in the Risen Star. Today may be the day he gets a pace.
  4. #2 Sierra Leone – Did somebody mention Sierra Leone? The Gun Runner colt, a $2.3 million yearling, is a nose from being 4-for-4 and closed nicely to win the Blue Grass last out, albeit with an assist from the pace. He might get it again in this spot but will have to navigate the bulky field from the two-hole. One concern: he acted up before the sizable crowd at the Blue Grass, and the Derby crowd is five times larger.
  5. #8 Just a Touch – He’s got tactical speed but has been cooked in his last two by hot paces all the same. If he can relax enough here, the breeding – by Justify out of a Tapit mare – says he’ll get the trip, and just three races on his resume says he can still improve.
  6. #14 Endlessly – Hasn’t put a foot wrong yet, but all of those feet were on turf and synthetic. His trainer’s reluctance to come here is a cause for concern, but if he can bring his synthetic form to the main track, he’ll be running at the end.
  7. #6 Just Steel – This D. Wayne Lukas trainee arrives with an old-school resume: 11 starts to date. He ran well at long odds to be second, behind the talented Bob Baffert trainee Muth in the Arkansas Derby; but his only two wins are at 6 ½ furlongs or less. On the plus side, he owns a win over the Churchill strip.

To see a horse-by-horse analysis and in-depth look at the Kentucky Derby field, please click here.

Eric RubinTed BlackDerby Bill WatsonJohn PiassekNick HahnGary Quill
111. Forever Young8. Just a Touch11. Forever Young11. Forever Young4. Catching Freedom4. Catching Freedom
22. Sierra Leone17. Fierceness17. Fierceness17. Fierceness17. Fierceness2. Sierra Leone
36. Just Steel2. Sierra Leone2. Sierra Leone2. Sierra Leone14. Endlessly14. Endlessly

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EXPERT KENTUCKY DERBY PICKS

OUR HANDICAPPERS ARE:

  • John Piassek, The Racing Biz Maryland handicapper
  • Ted Black, The Racing Biz West Virginia correspondent
  • Nick Hahn, The Racing Biz Virginia correspondent
  • Eric Rubin, host of Better Betting podcast
  • Gary Quill, co-host of Better Betting and former The Racing Biz Maryland handicapper
  • Derby Bill Watson, legendary former Colonial Downs on-air analylyst

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