LAUREL PARK PICKS AND PONDERINGS: july 7, 2023

In which we pick the races from Laurel Park each day…

Post time: 12:25 p.m.

Carryovers: Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 — $16,427 Jackpot Super High 5 $11,237 Late Pick 5 $0

Check out our other handicapping here!

RACE 1: MAIDEN CLAIMING $20,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, 1 MILE (GRASS)

10-5-11-1

#10 Nanga Parbat (2-1) takes a big drop in class for Niall Saville. He raced wide throughout against straight maidens both here and at Delaware Park in his last two, and while he wasn’t a factor in either race, his brisnet figures fit in with these. He’s run a 74 and an 84 within his last three starts. #5 Syncopated (15-1) closed well second off the layoff at Parx last out, albeit into a fast pace. He’ll look to keep improving in his third start of the year, and you’ll get the right price on that proposition. An improvement of just a few points likely means at least an exotics finish. In his most recent start at Tampa Bay Downs, #11 Rollercoaster Man (12-1) raced behind a freewheeling loose leader who set honest fractions but just kept on going and won gate-to-wire. The winner of that race, K’s Pick, won his next start, while runner-up Praline’s Cat finished second in each of his next two starts. This one has improved with each grass start and will try to rate close to the pace without getting caught wide.

RACE 2: CLAIMING $10,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/16 MILES

6-2-7-5

#6 Chrome Heir (3-1) ships from Charles Town for Crystal Pickett. He won two in a row on that track earlier in the year, showed little at 6 1/2 furlongs next out. That might’ve been too short for him, because he rebounded nicely with a solid-closing fourth at 1 1/16 miles in his most recent start. He’s never raced anywhere besides Charles Town, but if his form transfers, he’ll be tough to beat. Contrary to Chrome Heir, #2 Patriotic Party (2-1) has done his best work sprinting, and now goes two turns for the first time. He closed for second behind a front-running favorite in his last start and may have found a niche against these types. The distance is the only question. #7 Spectrier (8-1) stopped badly and was eased last out, but has worked since that race, and his previous figures fit in with these. It’s worth a shot to see if he can rebound.

RACE 3: MAIDEN CLAIMING $20,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, 1 MILE (GRASS)

7-1-10-4

While most of his New York compatriots are about to head north, Rob Atras, at least for today, is going the opposite direction and shipping #7 Peja Du (7-2) from Belmont Park. This one led most of the way in his grass debut two starts ago and ran a sharp 77, then was unable to settle next out and declined sharply. If he can calm down, he’ll likely set the pace and draw off. He’s a half-brother to four grass winners, and also Include Betty, who was a grade 1 winner on dirt. #1 Call Me a Dreamer (8-1) battled on the lead most of the way at Delaware last out first off the layoff, but held well for third, finishing two lengths clear of his sparring partner. He should sit near the pace on the rail. #10 Master Oogway (3-1) has tired on the lead in his last few, but should at least hold on for a share and could wire them if Peja Du doesn’t fire.

RACE 4: CLAIMING $40,000 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 7 FURLONGS

2-6-5-3

#2 Twice Gold (9-2) has lots of problems breaking from the gate, but it hasn’t slowed him down too much. He broke his maiden three starts ago going away, then recovered from a slow break and ran a career-best 84 in his last dirt try. He returns to this surface off a disappointing grass effort and should be able to handle these. #6 Carvellian Quest (9-5) also broke his maiden going away back in late April, improving sharply to an 81 second off the layoff. He faded after setting the pace against much better last out and now faces easier foes. Mike Trombetta has been on a heater. He’s looking for his ninth win of the meet in this race; last year, he won 11 races during the entire summer meet. #5 Switzer (8-5) goes first off the claim by Anthony Farrior. He’s run competitive figures in Kentucky, but has lacked a strong late punch. We’ll see how much he improves in Farrior’s barn.

RACE 5: CLAIMING $16,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 5 1/2 FURLONGS (GRASS)

7-10-3-4

#7 Aesthetically (5-2) cuts back from a mile after leading most of the way in his most recent. He’s shown tactical speed in the past, using it to win twice on grass here and at Pimlico last fall. That may prove important in a field with lots of speed. He could be in the catbird seat on the far turn. #10 Gussy Mac (7-2) ran in the 80s consistently last year, but hasn’t raced since last August. He rejoined the worktab at Delaware in mid-June for Niall Saville and has some good drills under his belt. Still, it’s a tall task. #3 Zen Master (9-2) ran a solid 75 in his grass debut last out and should close for a share. That 75 is the best mark anyone in here’s run on grass this year.

RACE 6: MAIDEN CLAIMING $12,500, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, 6 FURLONGS

10-4-2-3

It’s not often you see a horse with the best last-out figure by ten points at 30-1 on the morning line, but that’s the case with #10 Spunky Irishman (30-1). After five starts in a row where he was well-beaten, he improved drastically last out to get third while racing towards the rail. He ran a career-best 70 in the process. Almost no one in here can run that fast consistently, so as long as he doesn’t decline off that race, he could surprise. #4 Distant Fire (6-1) goes first off the claim by Lynn Cash having run in the 70s twice in his last four starts. He was completely flat last out, which is a bit spooky, but his prior form wins this, and you’ll get a much better price than the 3-2 you saw last out if you still believe. #2 Mizwarrior (6-1) is one of the lighter-raced horses in here, having competed just three times. He flattened out badly going a mile last out but ran a respectable 60 at this distance two starts ago.

RACE 7: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $20,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 5 1/2 FURLONGS (GRASS)

2-3-11-10

#2 Puppymonkeybaby (3-1) ships back up to the mid-Atlantic from Florida, and stopped in Virginia to have a workout two Sundays ago. She was very consistent last year, running the upper-70s every time out, and got two races on Tapeta at Gulfstream Park under her belt in preparation for a spot like this. #3 Bramble Bush (8-1) improved sharply going two turns at Delaware last out, running a career-best 89 while losing by a nose. She’s won going shorter before, so I’m not too concerned about the distance cutback. #11 Translate (7-2) has great tactical speed and competitive figures, but hasn’t raced since last November, and Ferris Allen isn’t great first off the layoff. She might need a race.

RACE 8: ALLOWANCE (OPEN), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/16 MILES

3-1A-4-5

#3 Zabracadabra (9-5) is cross-entered in Saturday’s Battery Park Stakes at Delaware. While I’d love to see him finally take the plunge back into stakes company, he’d be tough in this spot. He trounced a similar bunch last out, getting a great trip off the pace and kicking away to win by almost seven lengths. He’ll seek his revenge on #1A Ournationonparade (8-5), who beat him on April 14 but has not raced since then. The defending Maryland Million Classic champion picked up a string of checks in stakes company over the winter, but he often rated off the pace and couldn’t produce a late kick good enough to get the job done. He’s worked well at Delaware lately, and the time off may have done him some good. #4 Everett’s Song (6-1) beat a salty field last out, matching his career-best of 96. He’s getting good quickly and could surprise if he takes another step forward.

RACE 9: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $12,500, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 MILE (GRASS)

9-7-2-10

If Bramble Bush wins earlier today, it may flatter #9 Ms Merrabel (5-1). She finished third, beaten a neck, to Bramble Bush at Delaware two starts ago. Last out, she raced wide on a hot pace at Parx and tired, but should get a better trip here. #7 Red Wind (5-2) also made her last start at Parx, where she stalked the pace and kicked on to run a career-best 82. She closed well off a moderate pace at Monmouth Park in her prior race. #2 Cupids Dream (2-1) was no match in a salty allowance contest last out, but it looks like she’ll fit better with these. She won twice at Tampa Bay earlier this year and will be involved late with the right pace.

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