RACE 1: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/16 MILES

3-5-1-7

We’re ready to rock for a fantastic 14-race card. Note the early first post time. #3 Castle Island (2-1) ran off the screen to break his maiden two starts back (albeit in a race he kind of had to win), then fought hard in the stretch and finished a game second to Sherriff Ronnie, a four-time winner on the year, in his most recent try. He ran brisnet figures in the 90s in both those races, something the rest of the field struggles to do at all. #5 Patient Capital (12-1) ran in that range steadily last year, but came up empty in his first start off an eight-month layoff last out at Aqueduct. He’s had some good workouts since then for Horacio De Paz, who is sharp second off the claim, and has plenty of early speed. #1 Under the Radar (7-2), my preferred half of the Jamie Ness-trained entry, has struggled to break in his last few starts, which has cost him crucial early position. Earlier in the year, he raced a bit closer to the pace, and was always right there at the end, including a three-race streak with figures of at elast 89. We’ll know where he stands within the first few seconds of this one.

RACE 2: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 5 FURLONGS (GRASS)

10-12-7-6

Many of these are coming out of the same race at this condition April 21. #10 One Whirlwind Ride (5-2) ran the best of anyone in this field that day. He chased pacesetting Where’s Ray, who drew off in the stretch and couldn’t be caught, but this one worked his way through some traffic and got up to win in a blanket finish. This one also ran well in a tougher first-level field last year, and is a half-sibling to a pair of grass winners, including one who was stakes-placed on this surface. #12 Fun Notion (7-2) races for the first time since November 19, where he converted the trip and won going away against Maryland-restricted rivals. He ran a 91 two starts back in a gigantic effort, where he overcame some traffic and lost by a nose. He might be a bit short compared to some of these, but he has worked well since late March, and has enough ability to be a contender regardless. #7 Tidewater (3-1) finished fourth behind One Whirlwind Ride first off the layoff last out, and just missed in some races against similar types last fall. He has tons of upside and should run a big one second off the bench.

RACE 3: MAIDEN CLAIMING $45,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, 6 FURLONGS

9-3-2-5

#9 Car Ride (5-1) ran well as the lone first-timer in the field two starts ago, chasing down a loose leader and losing by a nose. He was outkicked by the well-bet Jay last out, but still ran on well in his own right and secured second. He ran in the mid/upper-70s in both of those races, and should get a pace to run at. #3 Without Pretence (9-2) stopped badly going two turns in his last start, and faded after a wide trip two starts back, but ran a big 84 first off a five-month layoff three races ago. At his peak, he packs a strong closing punch, and his excuse-filled lines could drive up his price. #2 Irish Hero (6-1) has shown abundant early speed and faded in each of his first three starts. He’s sure to make the rail and the lead once again here; from there, it’s a matter of how long he can last.

RACE 4: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W2X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 5 FURLONGS (GRASS)

3-6-5-1

If Fun Notion or Tidewater win race 2, it’ll further validate the form of #3 Childers (4-1), who beat both those rivals last October 27. This one made his first grass start since then, and second start off the bench, in his last start, where he chased gate-to-wire winner That’s Right and finished a clear-cut second with a more than respectable 86. He should get a much more contested pace to rate off of today. #6 Talented Man (12-1) is one of the more talented speedsters in the field, having gone gate-to-wire to win twice on the Parx lawn last year, including a hard-ought victory in the Marshall Jenney Handicap. He stopped badly in his first start of the year on February 27, and hasn’t raced since, but at least has some solid recent workouts, and he’s a little more recently raced than most of his rivals. He’s proven he can withstand pace pressure. #5 Dr Oseran (5-2) races for the first time in almost a year. He ran some big races n the winter of 2023 at Gulfstream Park, with marks of 92 and 88 in his first two starts of the season, then finished a strong-closing third despite a slow break in the Roar Stakes last May. He has the highest ceiling of anyone in the field, but while he must be respected, he’s hard to swallow at low odds.

RACE 5: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W2X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS

6-10-5-9

#6 North Highland (8-1) has form obscured by excessive ambition. He ran two lousy races going a mile or longer earlier in the year, but if you take out those races, he looks a lot better. He’s run at least an 87 in each of his last four races at seven furlongs or shorter, the only one in the field to do so, and has by far the best late pace figures in the race. #10 Golden Candy (2-1) sat the trip and got up to win at this level two starts back with a giant 97, defeating next-out stakes winner Take a Hint in the process. He should rate right off the paced from the outside and be in a prime position to pounce. #5 Point Dume (7-2) tries older horses for the first time. He didn’t run well in the Private Terms Stakes last out around two turns, but ran at least an 88 in three straight starts, including a solid second behind a determined Speedyness in the Miracle Wood Stakes two starts ago. He looks much better suited for races like this.

RACE 6: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, 1 1/16 MILES (GRASS)

4-10-8-1

Here’s an example of where local knowledge comes in handy, especially with the giant pools of Black-Eyed Susan day. It doesn’t show up in the past performances, but #4 Mission North (12-1) won at the Old Dominion Point-to-Point in Virginia in early April, taking a 1 1/4 mile race where he defeated winners. He made his first pari-mutuel start of the season last out, and ran a respectable 77 despite never really getting settled. He takes the blinkers off here, an angle trainer Jack Fisher is very potent with, and looks very live third off the layoff. #10 Cinder Block (7-2) saved plenty of ground and held on for third on debut at Keeneland last out, running the best of the four first-time starters while losing only to the two chalks. His dam, Zucchini Flower, was multiple stakes-placed on grass, and two of his siblings have won on this surface. #8 Wow Whata Party (15-1), whose half-brother, Wow Whata Summer, runs later today, gobbled up ground on debut going 5 1/2 furlongs and was beaten three lengths. He has room to improve at second asking at a price. The distance shouldn’t be a problem; his brother’s most famous accomplishment is winning the Penn Mile around two turns on the sod.

RACE 7: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W2X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 MILE (GRASS)

11-6-3-5

One more to go, then we’re on to the stakes action. #11 Sun Bee (3-1) held her own against stakes company last summer and fall, and has the best late pace figures in the race. If she gets any kind of pace to close into, she’ll have an especially potent kick for the Graham Motion/Jorge Ruiz duo. Should she win, she’ll likely have to run down #6 Paper Mansion (5-2) to do so. She’s won her last six starts, five of them in gate-to-wire fashion. Without a ton of other speed, she’s likely to get a pretty lonely lead. Her only problem might be the class hike. It can be harder holding off second-level types than the starter handicap foes she saw at Tampa Bay Downs this winter. #3 Chelichna (20-1) races for the first time since November 4. She ended her year in ascending form, including a near-miss in the Maryland Million Turf Distaff Starter Handicap in the penultimate start of the season, and also has great late pace figures. Jeiron Barbosa gets abord for the first time.

RACE 8: ALLAIRE DUPONT DISTAFF STAKES, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/8 MILES

1-7-5-8

The first stakes race of the weekend is named for the legendary mid-Atlantic owner and breeder, best-known for campaigning the great Kelso. #1 Julia Shining (5-2) ran some big races against some nice horses towards the end of last year, then returned in a second-level contest at Keeneland last out. She raced wide off slow fractions in that race, and made a bold move to strike the front at the top of the stretch, but flattened out and finished second to a rival who, even though she also came from off the pace, saved much more ground. As long as the pace in front of her isn’t too slow, she’ll be a serious late threat. The gigantic #7 Intrepid Dream (8-1) hasn’t done much wrong in two races this year, coming from off the pace and drawing off to win easily both times. She looked sharp in victory in the Heavenly Cause Stakes last out, albeit in a short field, and gets her class test here. She’ll rate just off the pace under Jaime Rodriguez, subbing for the injured Jevian Toledo, and should get every shot to pull away and make it six wins in a row. #5 Queen of Missoula (8-1) ran some big races at Turfway Park over the winter, then ran a respectable 86 when fifth against better in the Doubledogdare Stakes last out. She’ll get a similar trip as Julia Shining, and even if that rival outkicks her, this one should get up for a minor share.

RACE 9: HILLTOP STAKES, 3-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 1 MILE (GRASS)

6-2-5-1

RACE 10: MISS PREAKNESS STAKES, 3-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 6 FURLONGS

7-3-10-1

#7 Carmelina (12-1) turned in back-to-back impressive performances on the lead in stakes company to cap her 2-year-old season. She lasted through pace pressure to hold second in the Busher Stakes two starts back, but couldn’t hang around going 1 1/8 miles in the Gazelle Stakes last out and faded. This distance is right in her wheelhouse, and she’s a serious threat to wire them. #3 Youalmosthadme (2-1) has similar form as Carmelina, but will go off at much lower odds. She also won two stakes in row top cap her season, also with figures in the 90s both times, then came up empty first off the bench in the Beaumont Stakes at Keeneland last out. She’ll get first crack at Carmelina if that one fades on the lead. #10 Discreet Ops (12-1) is a perfect 2-for-2 lifetime, and matched her debut mark of 86 first off a 4 1/2-month layoff in her most recent outing. She’s getting a class test here, but should get her trip and looks like a live longshot.

RACE 11: THE VERY ONE STAKES, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 5 FURLONGS (GRASS)

8-4-10-12