PIMLICO PICKS AND PONDERINGS: may 16, 2024
In which we pick the races from Pimlico each day…
Post time: 12:25 p.m.
Carryovers:
Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 —$2,744
Jackpot Super High 5 — $6,977
Late Pick 5– $0
Check out our other handicapping here!
RACE 1: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $12,500, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 5 FURLONGS
2-7-10-9
The real ones are firing away today. If only it would stop raining for a little bit…#2 Speak Your Mind (6-1) faded after getting confronted with pace pressure in her last few starts against better, but now drops to the lowest level she’s been at in a while on dirt, and looks like the controlling speed from towards the inside. #7 Bandits Warrior (7-2) fought hard from just off the pace and just missed against Utterly Enchanting last out. She also has plenty of early speed, but might be better off rating near Speak Your Mind. #10 Golden Can (5-2) got some time off following a flat effort in early March, and returned with a game runner-up finish despite racing wide on grass in her most recent try.
RACE 2: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $20,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS
8-3-7-4
Brad Cox will have many starters here this weekend, most prominently Catching Freedom in the Preakness. The first of them is #8 Communication Memo (3-1), coming off a big win at Oaklawn Park where he sliced through traffic to win from well off the pace. There’s plenty of cheap speed in here that should set things up for him. #3 Strugar (5-1) won after sitting a nice stalking trip in his most recent dirt start, his first race off the Jonathan Maldonado claim. Runner-up Nottoway came in off a win and is a 14-time winner in his career, while third-place finisher Pit Stop Man came back to win next out. He’ll also get a nice trip while racing closer to the early pace than Communication Memo. #7 Kadri (7-2) has lots of early speed, and will have to deal with those cheap speeds from his inside. He should be able to press them into submission and get the jump on his rivals turning for home. He’s also faced a lot better rivals in recent times.
- Executive Order looks to bounce back in Maryland JuvenileExecutive Order, a debut winner at Saratoga, leads a nine-horse field into Saturday’s Maryland Juvenile Stakes at Laurel Park.
RACE 3: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $20,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 1/16 MILES
12-2-6-1
#12 Joya Del Sur (7-5), entered for main-track-only, looks well-spotted by Anthony Farrior, since she has easily the best dirt form of anyone in this field. She cruised on the lead in her last two starts at Thistledown and Mahoning Valley, and should get to the front and jog once again. #2 Mo Tough (30-1) got entangled in a duel three starts back, but drew off to win by open lengths, while her dueling partner lost by almost 17 lengths. I don’t think she can keep up with Joya Del Sur early on, but she can at least rate off her and try to outkick the others. #6 True Blue Pearl (5-1) has been in improving form on dirt, and gets a surface switch after a dull try on the lawn last out.
RACE 4: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 6 FURLONGS
4-5-3-2
This race begins the late pick 5. #4 Buckin’ Great (7-2) showed some promise in her 2-year-old season before it ended in mid-August. She returned to the races against $40,000 claimers in late April, and came from off the pace to win going away with an impressive brisnet figure of 86, by far a career-best. If she improves even a bit second off the bench, she’ll be tough to beat. #5 Kilo Road (6-1) improved sharply second time out last out, lasting through pace pressure to draw off, also running an 86 in the process. She’s facing winners in the first time here, and this will be a nice class test. #3 Goodnightngodbless (9-5) beat winners going away two races ago, then ran a solid second behind Discreet Ops last out. That rival will compete in tomorrow’s Miss Preakness Stakes; if this one runs well here, it’ll boost Discreet Ops’s stock.
RACE 5: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $20,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 5 FURLONGS
1-4-8-2
#1 Charging Aero (4-1) lasted through pace pressure on the front end last out at Tampa Bay Downs, and held third behind Group Hug, who finished second against better next out, and stakes winner Buff Hello. He usually comes from further off the pace, so it’s nice to see he has options. #4 Star Shopping (10-1) makes his first start since December 7. He held his own after a wide, pace-compromised trip in his last dirt effort, and ran well in a string of five-furlong races on the lawn last year. #8 Valiant Vinny (2-1) also goes first off the layoff, having last competed in mid-November. He hasn’t raced on dirt in a while, but is 9-for-15 in the exacta on this surface, and showed good tactical speed in his grass starts last year.
RACE 6: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W2X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 6 FURLONGS
2-1-6-3
#2 Night Cap (3-1) races first off the claim by Darien Rodriguez. She ran in the 90s three times in five starts at the Tampa Bay meet, and while she declined to an 85 last out, that was in a three-horse field, and subsequently had strange race dynamics. She’ll likely sit just off the leaders and pounce. #1 Fuhgeddaboudit (8-1) returned off a seven-month break in late December and has been in slowly improving form since. She rated off very fast fractions and just missed to fellow closer Bella Bettina with an 84, her best figure in over a year. #6 Goodgirl Badhabits (6-5) has the highest ceiling of anyone in the field. She won her first two starts by a combined 22 lengths, but sunk like a stone in the Acorn Stakes after prompting the pace following an awkward break, and hasn’t been seen since. She’s worked well recently, and as noted, has a ton of upside, but you’ll have to take an awfully low price on a horse who hasn’t raced in almost a year.
- CT: Septarian off to speedy startTwo-year-old Septarian has hit the ground running, winning first out at Charles Town and then doubling up with a win at Laurel for Javier Contreras.
RACE 7: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 1/16 MILES (GRASS)
2-7-8-9
#2 Circle Home (7-2) was last seen in the Geisha Stakes at Laurel Park in late January, where she came from well off the pace on a track not favoring her style. She should gobble up ground late and get up for the win in a field where most of the others don’t have a lot of dirt ability. #7 Priyanka (6-1) makes her American debut for Graham Motion, and her first start off a year-plus layoff. She just missed third in last year’s UAE Oaks in her dirt debut, and showed some mild late kick in her next start on that surface. As alluded to, she gets a soft landing for her return to the races. #8 Doesn’thurttoflirt (8-1) broke her maiden going away on dirt last November, and has shown improving form on grass since then. We’ll see if it translates over.
RACE 8: CLAIMING $12,500 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 1/16 MILES
1-7-2-5
#1 Something Silly (9-2) is the only one in the field who hasn’t lost against winners, and is very lightly-raced, with only three starts to her name. She stretched out to this distance for the first time last out and handled it without much trouble, coming from just off the pace to break her maiden with a respectable 64. #7 Search (6-5) broke her maiden at 12th asking at Fair Grounds last out, then just missed in her local debut last out, finishing second in a blanket finish. She’s the only one in the field to run at least a 65 around two turns; she’s done so twice. #2 G’s Fireball (3-1) has run at least a 66 in four straight starts, the only one in the field to do so, but has never raced beyond seven furlongs.
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