LAUREL PARK PICKS AND PONDERINGS: november 5, 2023

In which we pick the races from Laurel Park each day…

Post time: 12:25 p.m.

Carryovers: Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 — $0

Jackpot Super High 5 — $1,454

Late Pick 5 — $0

Check out our other handicapping here!

RACE 1: CLAIMING $16,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 5 1/2 FURLONGS (GRASS)

5-11-8-3

You could go in just about any direction in this race. The best last-out grass brisnet figure in the race is 80, shared by five horses; the worst is 77. #5 Pico d’Oro (4-1) gets a slight edge, as the only one int he field to have run in the 80s in each of his last two starts, coupled with a solid middle and late punch. He’s just missed at this level a few times in a row, but this looks like a spot where he can put it all together. #11 Storm Trappe (8-1) lost by a nose to Pico d’Oro first off a two-month layoff last out, and has matched or surpassed his career-best figure in each of his last two starts. #8 Where is Mike (9-5) chased better and got second at Colonial Downs last out, and races for the hot Brittany Russell/Jevian Toledo combination. However, a low price might be hard to swallow in a race as competitive as this one.

RACE 2: CLAIMING $5,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 7 FURLONGS

2-5-6-4

If the Gerald Brooks-trained duo of #5 Unicorn Sally (9-5) and #6 Beautiful Star (8-5) were coupled, they could’ve been odds-on on the morning line. Both are coming off strong performances; Unicorn Sally was second at Presque Isle Downs last out behind a favored rival who got a jump start on her, while Beautiful Star fought gamely to win going a mile last out. However, neither one have particularly great late pace figures, suggesting that they could tire late, and they’ll both be tough prices to swallow. While they merit respect, I’ll try to beat them both with #2 Ninja Abarrio (5-1) (no relation to Breeders’ Cup Classic champ White Abarrio). She got up to win from off the pace against similar last out, and has been competitive against these types all year long. She should get a nice trip off the pace and rally for a mild surprise.

RACE 3: MAIDEN CLAIMING $30,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 1/16 MILES (GRASS)

3-5-6-4

#3 Bolt of Paradise (6-1) turned in a much-improved effort at Monmouth Park last out, lasting through pace pressure to finish second. There’s not a lot of speed in this one, and could get a very cushy trip on the front end. #5 Compass Rises (5-2) ran a competitive 77 in a tough maiden special weight field last out. She’s dropping in for a tag for the first time, and should close well as long as the early pace isn’t too slow. #6 Rosy Tomorrows (2-1) had a brutal trip in an amateur rider contest last out, and now gets a professional aboard in Horacio Karamanos. With smoother sailing, she could prove dangerous late.

RACE 4: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W2X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/16 MILES

1A-5-2-6

With only eight races today, this race begins the late pick 5. #1A Berks (9-5) looks like the more potent half of the Jamie Ness entry. He’s had an excellent year, winning six of his last eight races, and he’s gone gate-to-wire in five of those wins. Once again, his early pace figures are the best in the field, so if he can work out his usual trip, the others will be left reeling. #5 It’s Viper (8-5) rallied well and just missed behind Irish Exit second off a brief layoff last out. While he probably won’t be able to catch Berks if that one runs his race, he should be able to outkick the others. #2 Luigi’s Spirit (8-1) was game in defeat first off the layoff at Delaware Park last out, and has consistently run in the mid-80s all year long.

RACE 5: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $30,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 5 1/2 FURLONGS (GRASS)

4-5-2-3

Yesterday, Brittany Russell and Jevian Toledo were the beneficiaries of a free-wheeling speed horse in grass tiring, as Mainline ran down Above the Limit. This time, they’re the ones with the speed horse, as #4 Nichiren (3-1) has the best early pace figures in the field. He led almost all the way last out despite setting very fast early fractions, and lost by less than a length. #5 Alexis S (6-1) has faced much better on grass this year, with three recent starts against stakes company. He ran in the upper-80s in two of those races, but is taking a bit of an alarming drop in class, as he’s being risked for the bottom claiming price of $24,000. Still, if he runs something close to his usual race, he’ll be tough. #2 The Judge and Jury (7-2) goes first off the claim by Jamie Ness and may try to press Nichiren from the inside. He sat the trip off the pace and just missed at Delaware in his most recent.

RACE 6: CLAIMING $10,000 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS

4-5-6-8

#4 Judy’s Army (5-2) has gotten better with every start this year, peaking at a career-best 80 last out, and should show good tactical speed. #5 Irish Warlock (8-1) faces one of the easier fields he’s seen in a while at this condition, and is the only one in the race to have run at least a 75 in his last four dirt starts. He’s had traffic trouble at varying points in his last few races and will hope for smoother sailing today. #6 Prins Fire (8-1) lost by just a half-length against these types last out, and got going once he worked out clear sailing.

RACE 7: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W2X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/16 MILES (GRASS)

3-7-1-5

Many of these comes out of the same race at this condition on October 19, which resulted in an exciting blanket finish. #3 The Addison Pour (3-1) rallied from fourteen lengths out of it to lose by a neck, In the start prior, he closed off slower fractions and finished a game fourth in the Find Stakes. He’ll likely sit well off the pace once again and make a big move on the far turn. #7 Clear Vision (7-2) was no match for much better at Kentucky Downs in September in his first start off the claim by Mike Maker, but improved sharply at Aqueduct last out when he won going away at Aqueduct. That was his first win in a while, and he’s had trouble converting the trip in his prior few races, but perhaps he’s turned a corner. #1 Eldest Son (9-2) finished a neck ahead of The Addison Pour last out, and will try to work out a trip off the pace on the rail.

RACE 8: CLAIMING $16,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/16 MILES

7-5-3-1

#7 Coco Shell (5-2) won three of his final four starts of the Monmouth Park season, showing various dimensions in those victories. He’s likely to rate off of #5 Uncaptured Storm (7-5), who has early speed, goes first off the claim by Anthony Farrior, and is dropping in class. #3 Elusive Agent (20-1) chased the pace and held third in his first try at this level, and will try to stay on for a slice.

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