LAUREL PARK PICKS AND PONDERINGS: August 3, 2023
In which we pick the races from Laurel Park each day…
Post time: 12:25 p.m.
Carryovers: Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 — $8,016 Jackpot Super High 5 — $1,361 Late Pick 5 — $0
Check out our other handicapping here!
RACE 1: MAIDEN CLAIMING $10,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES AND MARES, 7 FURLONGS
4-3-6-7
This card was originally scheduled for last Friday, but pushed back due to weather. #4 Sky Buy (5-2) ran well on debut back in April, chasing the pace and getting up for second. Last out against slightly better, she battled for the early lead with the eventual winner and stopped badly. She was making her first start in almost three months that day, and now takes a slight drop in class. #3 Good Story (3-1) has picked up plenty of checks at this level, having hit the board in five of her last seven starts with brisnet figures in the low/mid-60s every time. She had little hope of catching gate-to-wire favorite Thunder Boss last out, but rallied well and won a photo for second over next-out winner Jane Street. #6 Hey Riri (7-2) exits the same race as Good Story. This one was fourth that day after racing near the pace, finishing with a career-best 56 third time out. She’s eligible to take a step forward here.
RACE 2: CLAIMING $40,000 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 5 1/2 FURLONGS (GRASS)
1-9-3-5
#1 Sure Can (2-1) goes second off the layoff and ships from Kentucky for Brian Lynch. She broke her maiden in determined style at Gulfstream Park over the winter with an 88, and now drops from first-level company at Ellis Park. Both of her recent workouts at Churchill Downs were bullets. In the season lidlifter, #9 Lady Mosler (5-1) rushed to the front when the early leader tired and pulled clear in the stretch, but was reeled in late. She loves finishing second, having done so four times at this distance without a win, and is likely to hang near the pace and secure a runner-up spot once again. #3 Angel Art (12-1) adds blinkers for Mark Shuman and cuts back around one turn on grass. She’s likely to set the early pace and will likely benefit from the distance reduction.
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RACE 3: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT, 2-YEAR-OLDS, 5 1/2 FURLONGS
7-5-1-4
#7 Under the Overpass (9-5) has burned a lot of money in his young career, losing at 4-5 in each of his first two starts. He improved to a 71 second time out at Monmouth Park last out, but chased the pace and was no match. Still, he’s had a recent bullet workout and is primed to keep moving forward third time out for Brittany Russell. The race could set up perfectly for him with the blazing speed of #5 Force of Justice (9-2). That one led most of the way on debut but was run down late and settled for third. If he goes out and sets fast fractions once again, Under the Overpass will be in the perfect spot to pick him up and lay him down. #1 Uncle Chinito (12-1) finished third first time out in a merry-go-round type of race. The horses who were 1-2-3 at first call stayed that way throughout the running. This one ran on well in the stretch and should also get a nice setup near the pace.
RACE 4: CLAIMING $40,000 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 5 1/2 FURLONGS (GRASS)
10-6-3-1
#10 Switzer (7-2) switches back to grass for the first time in the Anthony Farrior barn. He’s run at least a 79 four times in his five grass races, all of which came in the midwest last year. He battled while wide and held second on dirt last out, a positive sign for today’s race with his post. #6 Speed Warning (2-1) dueled in the two-path last out at Monmouth and faded, but still ran a respectable 79. He’s dropping from first-level allowance company and will be a major pace presence once again. #3 Flight of Bourbon (30-1) made his first start in almost a year last out, and lasted a long way dueling on the lead before fading in the last eighth. He’s coming off a shorter layoff here, having not run since June 10, and looks like an interesting wild card in this field.
RACE 5: CLAIMING $10,000 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 7 FURLONGS
2-1-4-7
#2 I Have Courage (2-1) is the only one in the field to have run in the 70s in each of her last four starts. She has the most early speed in the race and could find herself with a lonesome lead. #1 Auntie Rona (4-1) was completely empty in her last start, but ran in the mid-70s in back-to-back races prior to that. This closer might get pace-compromised if I Have Courage sneaks away, but she should be able to outrun the others and complete the exacta. #4 Top Mule (5-1) stopped badly first off the bench last out, but broke her maiden ins harp style on this track last November and will try to recover that form.
RACE 6: CLAIMING $8,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 7 FURLONGS
1-2-7-4
Every horse Jamie Ness sends out has to be respected right now, and #1 Shady Munni (5-2) is no exception. He’s had some time off since fading at 1 1/16 miles last out, but has been working very well at Delaware Park as he preps for his return. He ran in the mid/upper-80s consistently earlier this year and won at this level going longer. #2 Military Hop (3-1) stopped badly after racing wide on the pace last out, but he’s been given some time off since that June 11 effort. He goes through pretty dramatic form cycles, but his best race wins this. He should work out a much better trip racing towards the inside on the pace here. #7 Curlin’s Thrill (10-1) improved to an 80 second off the layoff last out and has some of the best late pace figures in the race.
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RACE 7: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $20,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 5 1/2 FURLONGS (GRASS)
7-3-8-6
#7 Canadian Ginger (2-1) coasted to a gate-to-wire score at this level last out for her second consecutive victory. She’s come from off the pace and raced well in the past, so while she’s not likely to get to the front end here, she should be fine rating off the lead. Early leader status will likely fall to #3 Expect Ours (3-1), who has spent most of this year in Louisiana and recently arrived in the mid-Atlantic for Brett Brinkman. She’s a tenacious customer on the lead, having battled and just missed last out at Evangeline Downs. Look for her to get to the lead and the rail early and to put up a fight from there. #8 Lady Jean (4-1) has a mild closing punch that gets her plenty of checks. It hasn’t gotten her in the winner’s circle on grass for a while, however. Unless the pace is very fast, it’ll be tough for her to reel the leaders in, but she should at least be able to get a slice.
RACE 8: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS, 6 FURLONGS
8-5-3-7
#8 The Khozan One (3-1) has rapidly improved in his last few starts, most recently coming from off the pace to beat conditioned claiming foes at Monmouth going away. There’s lots of speed in here, so he should get a pace to close into. #5 Paradise Valley (7-2) blew the doors off the field on debut at Parx a few starts ago, and while he hasn’t quite found that form since then, he’s run respectable figures in the 80s both times. He’s facing a fairly soft first-level field here and should be prominent near the early tempo. #3 On the Mark (8-1) almost defeated Johnyz From Albany two starts ago, but struggled last out at Delaware. He’ll also get the trip off the pace and has great middle pace figures.
RACE 9: CLAIMING $16,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 1/16 MILES (GRASS)
6-9-10-4
#6 Don’t Tell Deren (3-1) showed aptitude for grass in her first start on this surface last out, coming from just off the pace to kick away and win with a solid 79. She should get the trip once again and set herself up for a repeat performance. #9 True Blue Pearl (5-1) exits the same race as Don’t Tell Deren, where she won a photo for third after coming from well off the early pace. She hasn’t yet won on grass, but is in improving form on the surface. Last year’s Maryland Million Turf Distaff Starter Handicap winner, #10 Pounding Music (4-1), makes her season debut in this spot. She broke her maiden first off a long layoff last April and has been working well since mid-June.
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