Laurel Park picks and ponderings July 7, 2019

ANALYSIS

RACE 1

Nothing wrong with that last effort from #4 Victory Given (5-2), who chased the pace, bid nearing the quarter-pole — and then was bothered by a loose horse before fading late. He held second and with a loose-horseless trip today stands a good chance to graduate. We’ll keep the show horse from that same race, #7 Promising Pistol (8-5), on the ticket, along with #5 Jack’s Dreamer (9-2), who showed little on debut but drops from maiden special weight company to this claiming spot and can improve.

RACE 2

The favorite in this turf sprint is #5 McPherson (8-5), who has the best speed figs and has run competitvely at this level. But he’s winless on the lawn, including two recent tries versus similar. Let’s take a bit of a swing here with #1 Godlovesasinner (6-1). This one didn’t run especially well last out but is dropping from better company and shortening back up to a distance at which he’s finished in the top three is six of eight starts.

RACE 3

This looks like a cozy spot for #2 Lead Astray (3-1). The Beth Worton trainee ran a decent one last time out against slightly better, finishing third, and winner Incorporate returned to defeat open $12,500 claimers in his follow-up. There’s enough pace in here to unleash his late kick, and the added ground should put him in striking range. The favorite here is #7 The Robert (2-1), who, on best, should win here but who really threw in a clunker last out, when he was done by the half pole. We’ll keep him on the ticket but aren’t inclined to take short odds.

ANALYSIS

RACE 4

The favorite, and our top choice, is #5 Music Maker (8-5). This one obliterated never-won-two rivals two back and gave a respectable accounting of herself last out against better. Dropped back into an easier spot and with Trevor McCarthy up, she figures tough. We also wouldn’t toss #2 Mixways (8-1), who’s taking a multi-level drop from allowance company to this spot and gets Sheldon Russell in the irons.

RACE 5

Pretty competitive group in this turf sprint, and we settled on the formful #1 Market Money (5-2). The five-year-old mare has won two of three and her lone defeat came when third against better; winner Eye on Berlin had finished third prior to that in The Very One at Pimlico. We’ll also use #6 Go Magician Go (10-1). This one had previously proven herself competitive against these sorts, and while her last looks bad on the page, she ran like a horse who left her race in the paddock; she was noted as “unruly prerace,” pressed the pace for a half-mile, and then faded. Making her second start of the year, she can move forward here.

RACE 6

Good try last out by #3 High Society (6-1), who’s our top choice here. Two back he ran credibly against open claiming types, and in his last against never-won-three rivals, he was stalled for several jumps mid-stretch while awaiting room. He ran willingly enough to earn third once clear and can move forward today, especially with a cleaner trip. One knock against him is his unsightly 2-for-42 record, but it looks at least a little bit better once those 18 winless dirt and synthetic tries are removed. The favorite here also should be on the ticket; #1 Ride to the Sunset (3-1) made a big move while well wide on the far turn last time out before flattening out and today gets McCarthy up.

ANALYSIS

RACE 7

A fairly short but rugged field is set to line up in this Maryland-bred allowance. In a sense, the most intriguing horse here is #7 Bull Shark (2-1), who broke his maiden at first asking by six lengths with a big fig after a bit of an awkward break. The runner-up from that race returned to graduate next out. In a typical Maryland-bred allowance, he might be favored, but here he’ll have to contend with our top choice, #3 Taco Supream (9-5). This veteran crushed open a-other-than foes two back, and last out, he was a good second in a second-level allowance going seven furlongs. Had he won that, he would not be eligible for this spot, so that may be a blessing in disguise. This one should appreciate the distance cutback to 5 1/2 furlongs, a distance at which he has run one-two in five of six tries.

RACE 8

The last couple look kinda chalky to us. #4 Flyingontheground (8-5) won nicely last out at the never-won-two level, and the second- and third-place finishers both returned to win next out (the former now having won two straight). A repeat performance would make her tough.

RACE 9

We’ll go with #7 Creative Budgeting (9-5), who gets blinkers on for his first start in the Kelly Rubley barn. This one has kept some tough company, finishing third last out behind the talented Gnarly Mo, a $385,000 auction purchase, and next-out winner Edict; and two back having run second behind Top Line Growth, who on Friday won the $250,000 Iowa Derby via disqualification. Among the rvials he’ll face here are #6 Galerio (5-2), who finished just behind this one last time out after stalking the early pace; and #1 Awesome Tracker (8-1), who makes his first start for trainer Jose Corrales, drops from better company at Churchill, and gets Lasix and blinkers on for the first time.