• John Piassek
• November 4, 2023

In which we pick the races from Laurel Park each day…

Post time: 12:00 p.m.

Carryovers: Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 —$0

Jackpot Super High 5 — $663

Late Pick 5 — $0

Check out our other handicapping here!

RACE 1: MAIDEN CLAIMING $30,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, 1 1/16 MILES (GRASS)

3-12-5-8

The Breeders’ Cup isn’t the only game in town today. There’s 10 very competitive races on today’s Laurel slate. #3 World Factor (10-1), one of a few in here exiting the same race at this condition on October 13, made what looked like a promising move on the turn, but flattened out and finished fourth. In his prior race, he closed strongly at Colonial Downs and just missed, running a career-best brisnet figure of 78. As long as he doesn’t run into too much traffic, he’ll have every chance to run them down at a good price. #12 Dyna Blast (7-2) was no match in a strong maiden field last out, and now drops for a tag for the first time. He’s never gone two turns before, but a repeat of either of his prior two grass figures likely wins this. #5 Maryland Moon (4-1) drops in class first off a three-month layoff. He has good tactical speed and loves to hit the board, but will need to show a little more late punch to win this.

RACE 2: CLAIMING $10,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS

1-6-7-4

#1 Frog Town (2-1) has slowly improved with each start since joining the Anthony Farrior barn in May. He converted a great stalking trip to victory at Charles Town last out, and is primed to sit another one today. #6 Smooth Rico (7-2) had a very tough trip two starts back, then ran on well for second next out behind Trepat, who blew the doors off the field that day as the favorite and won next out for his fifth win in six starts. No one in this field is at Trepat’s level, which bodes well for this one. #7 Sponsored (6-1) was flat first off a three-month break last out, but his form from earlier in the year wins this.

RACE 3: CLAIMING $25,000 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 MILE (GRASS)

11-6-3-4

#11 Dark and Fitzy (5-2) led most of the way through ambitious fractions in his last start, and held on for third behind Home School, who returned to beat better on Thursday at 19-1. This one should once again set up shop on the front end, and as long as he doesn’t go too fast early, he’ll be tough to reel in. #3 King Swansboro (4-1) exits the same race as Dark and Fitzy, and outran his odds to get fifth at 71-1, with a career-best 81. He’ll try to build on that effort today. #6 Reel Well (6-1) has a strong closing punch, but often leaves himself with too much to do late, like he did in his last start at Delaware Park. He might want more distance than this.

RACE 4: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W2X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 6 FURLONGS

7-2-4-3

This is basically a rematch of the same race at this condition on October 13. The top four finishers from that race are all back here, including my top three selections. #7 Violent Vixen (7-2) stalked the pace that day and fought #2 Poggibonsi (9-2) down the lane, with the latter getting away with rather soft early fractions for the distance. Poggibonsi hit the wire first by a neck, and Violent Vixen now adds blinkers. She drifted in a bit in that race, so if she stays a bit straighter, and if Poggibonsi is forced into setting fast fractions, it could set up well for her. Of course, there’s a chance Poggibonsi keeps moving forward and leaves the rest in the dust. She’s won five times this year and has very potent early speed. #4 Mama G’s Wish (5-1) broke a bit slowly in that race and flattened out to fourth. She’s a bit inconsistent, but her best race contends with these.

RACE 5: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING $40,000 (N/W2X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 5 1/2 FURLONGS (GRASS)

6-7-1-10

Barring something completely unexpected, we know for sure that #6 Above the Limit (7-2) will set the early pace. She has by far the fastest early pace figures in the race. She took a similar field all the way around in her most recent grass start at Delaware, and will likely prove too tough to catch. #7 Next Episode (8-1) may have been outclassed in the Maryland Million Turf Sprint last out, but she ran two big races over the summer at Colonial, including a determined win two races ago. That last race might throw bettors off the scent and drive up her price. #1 Mainline (6-1) sat the trip and won going away in her last grass start, and has gotten better with every start on this surface since returning from a brief layoff in the spring.

RACE 6: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $30,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS

7-1-3-2

The big question: do you trust #1 Bob Marco (7-5) going shorter? He’s coming off a dominant front-running win around two turns, and was off the board in his only race going this short. He has blazing early speed, and may be so fast that the distance he runs at doesn’t matter, but it still seems like an unusual spot. I’ll try to beat him with #7 Raise the Rent (7-2), who has god tactical speed and just missed in his last two starts against similar rivals. If Bob Marco backs up on the front end, this one will get first jump. #3 Indian Lake (15-1) ran in the 90s consistently against better earlier this year, and will try to revitalize himself as he drops to this level for the first time on dirt.

RACE 7: CLAIMING $16,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 1/16 MILES (GRASS)

12-7-5-2

#12 Louise Brooks (10-1) was wide throughout against better in her last start and faded, although she still ran solid 80. She worked out a two-path trip and won away a few starts ago. A similar setup today would make her tough to hold off. If she rates like that, it’ll likely be off the flank of #7 Please Marry Me (8-1). That one looks like the lone speed of this field and is a serious threat to coast. #5 Proper Storm (3-1) came from far out of it to win two starts ago, but had a bit of a tougher time off of slower fractions last out. She’ll hope someone makes Please Marry Me work early on.

RACE 8: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W2X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 1/16 MILES

7-1-5-2

The question of this race: how much do you trust the last race of #5 Saddle Up Jessie (4-5)? She finished a strong second behind the precocious Opus Forty Two, with a 104, the best last-out figure by eleven points. The problem is, that figure’s a big outlier from her previous form, as she had run no better than an 84 in her previous nine career starts. While she’s been in improving form throughout the year, if she regresses even a bit off that last race, she’s quite vulnerable, and not worth anywhere near her morning line odds. I’ll try to beat her with #7 Peyton Elizabeth (7-2), who won impressively at this level last out, running at least a 93 for the third consecutive race. The runner-up in that race, Hashtag Lucky, won by 5 1/4 lengths at Delaware on Thursday for her fourth victory of the season. #1 I Can Run (7-2) recovered from a bad start to finish a fast-closing fourth behind Peyton Elizabeth in her most recent. She should rally late for a share once again.