Delaware Park picks and analysis: September 30, 2023

Live racing at Delaware Park kicks off May 24 and runs through late October.

Once again this year, we will have Delaware Park picks and analysis for every day of live racing at the venerable track. Today’s card features eight races, and first post is 12:30 EDT.

Today’s carryovers: None

Race #1 Picks: 3-5-6-1

In this $28,000 maiden claiming race for fillies and mares at one mile, #3 One Violent Affair (7-2) has been struggling all year and will now move back to dirt after struggling on the turf. Every horse finds its level, and the move down to $28,000 may help this one get over the hump. She will be running her first dirt route today. She had good speed figures in Tampa in sprints, and if she wants the extra distance she will be dangerous. #5 Intro (5-2) did show some closing speed in last and should improve in third race after returning from a long break. Trainer Tito Moreno and jockey Vladimir Diaz will be making their first appearance at Delaware Park this year. #6 Dixie Lark (9-5) has been facing maiden special company on the turf and will now move back to the dirt. Maybe the class drop and surface change will help her improve.

Race #2 Picks: 1-4-5-3

In this $16,000 N2L claiming race for fillies and mares at six furlongs, #1 Fancy Warrior (6-1) ran better in her last race and she may be starting to peak. #4 Bodacious Bren (7-2) was competitive in last after a nine-month break and should be better in her second back. She has been in the top three in three of four lifetime races. #5 Cloudy Bay was running against better horses on the turf and is now moving to dirt. The class drop and surface change could help her chances.

Race #3 Picks: 4-5-7-11

In this $16,000 maiden claiming race for fillies and mares that was taken off the turf and will be conducted on the main track at five furlongs, #4 Steph’s Top Nick (7-2) flashed speed in a maiden special sprint race at Canterbury before trying the turf. Now dropping in class and she looks like a contender with this group. #5 Tough Enough (3-1) has been showing speed on the turf but is entered for the main track only, which indicates Chelsey Moysey might think she will like running on the dirt.  #7 I Love Maria (10-1) ran second in her first race after an eight-month break. There should be some improvement in her second race back, and she could be in the mix.


Race #4 Picks: 3-8-7-6

In this $5000 N2Y claiming race at 1 1/16 miles, #3 Camp Pendleton (6-1) has two decent starts after the claim with good speed figures. He fell short in a starter allowance race in most recent effort, but now he is moving back down to the level where he was competitive two back. #8 Night Ops (5-2) has been running well at this level over the summer. Will be making his second start for Michael Simone and is moving back down to $5000 claiming. A contender. #7 Samurai Saint (4-1) is a Parx shipper and they usually run well here. He won last and will have Delaware’s leading jockey aboard.

Race #5 Picks: 3-2-5-6

In this $38,000 maiden special race for two-year olds at 5 ½ furlongs, #3 Cali Heat (7-2) flashed early speed in a maiden special race at Monmouth. He has been working well since that race and is our top choice. #2 Pappy’s Revenge (9-2) is a first-time starter that has been working very well. Trainer McLean Robertson has won at 26% in 53 attempts with first-time-starters. #5 Sanderson (6-1) had a series of five-furlong works followed by a turf try at Saratoga. This colt has a lot of furlongs under his belt and could surprise today.

Joe’s Notes

  • Trainer Jose Ramirez won a pair of races to reach 10 wins at the meet. He’s one of nine conditioners with double-digit wins…
  • The late Pick 5 sequence saw three winning favorites (granted, one was 7-2) and still paid over $7,400 after 14-1 and 6-1 winners spiced things up…

Race #6 Picks: 6-4-3-2

In this optional claiming/starter allowance race at one mile and 70 yards, #6 Winter’s Ghost (5-2) has won five of six lifetime races. He ran second on a muddy track so a fast track will be to his benefit. This is a game horse and we think he will prevail again today. #4 Little Demon (9-5) drew off winning by eight lengths posting a 90 speed figure at Parx in last. That was a very impressive effort, and if he repeats that performance he will win today. #3 Goldini (7-2) has been facing tough competition in New York and could be a factor if he runs his best.

Race #7 Picks: 4-7-6-8

In this $28,000 N3L claiming race for fillies and mares that was taken off the turf and will be contested on the main track at five furlongs, #4 O Shaughesey (4-1) ran a decent race at Timonium on first after a claim last time out. This filly should be able to get the lead with this group and there aren’t many other speedy horses that will be able to catch her. #7 Honey Bella (3-1) is the other horse with early speed in this race. This Canterbury shipper has shown she can run on grass or dirt and looks like a contender. #6 Lady Shylock (10-1) won a race taken off the turf at Monmouth in last with a 54 speed figure. If she can repeat that performance, she will be in the mix.

Race #8 Picks: 3-1-2-5

In this $5000 claiming race at one mile and 70 yards, we are had trouble landing on a horse to win but we are going with #3 Roaring River (2-1) who did show early speed in his last two starts. He seems to be in better form than his foes and if he repeats either of his last two he should win today. #1 Zipper Zapper (3-1) will be making his first start for Jose Ramirez after the claim. He had some good races over the summer with good speed figures. A contender. #2 Speakerit (4-1) has been running on the turf and is returning to dirt. He may have a slight class advantage over this field.