Timonium picks AND PONDERINGS: SEPTEMBER 4, 2023

John Piassek is here to provide Timonium picks and analysis for every day of live racing at the Maryland State Fair.

Post time: 12:25 p.m.

Carryovers: Late Pick 5: $0

RACE 1: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT, 2-YEAR-OLDS, 4 FURLONGS

  1. #2 – Never Grew Up (8-5): If there’s ever going to be a day for this $85,000 purchase, it’s probably going to be this one.
  2. #3 – Catahoula Moon (6-5): Improved second time out despite a wide trip; white-hot Robb contingent will try to start closing day on a winning note.
  3. #4 – No Foolin Mo (6-1): Speaking of purchases, this colt cost $200,000 earlier this year; first foal out of a stakes-winning mare.

RACE 2: CLAIMING $5,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 1/2 FURLONGS

  1. #5 – Notion to Tapit (6-1): He ran a game race on the lead last out and is in improving form.
  2. #2 – Pompous Prince (2-1): Has speed from towards the rail, but both rivals he lost to last out have lost at this meet.  
  3. #1– Here and Nofurther (5-2): Easy winner against softer here last Saturday.

RACE 3: CLAIMING $5,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/16 MILES

  1. #3–  Can’t Pass It Up (5-2): Rallied to win against first off the layoff last out.
  2. #6 – Honor the Fleet (7-2): Returns to the Kieron Magee barn and looks like the main speed threat.
  3. #1 – Royal Thunder (4-1): Marshall Mendez came here from West Virginia to ride this one to victory last Sunday; he’s back today and will try to convert another stalking trip.                

RACE 4: CLAIMING $25,000 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 6 1/2 FURLONGS

  1. #3 – Looking for Water (15-1): Broke her maiden in style last out, albeit in a soft field, and is in rapidly improving form
  2. #2 – Lovely Liza (1-1): This perpetual bridesmaid is finally in position to catch the bouquet; her speed figures are superior to those of the rest, but it’s hard to take low odds on a horse with so many runner-up finishes against these types.  
  3. #5 – Quantico Creek (5-1): Goes second off a nine-month layoff and should work out a good trip.                           

RACE 5: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $20,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 6 1/2 FURLONGS

  1. #4 – Hashtag Lucky (9-5): Hasn’t had an anxious moment in her last two starts; securing the early lead will be key.
  2. #6 – Spicy Margarita (3-1): The Jimmy Buffett tribute hunch play; she didn’t break well last out but is usually forwardly placed.  
  3. #2 – Illusion of Hope (9-2): Closed nicely for second last out and will take advantage if the aforementioned two burn each other out.  

RACE 6: STARTER ALLOWANCE $5,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 4 FURLONGS

  1. #1 – Dancer’s Melody (2-1): Was in a bit too tough last out and showed little; won at this condition in her previous two races.
  2. #8 – Betcha By Golly (7-2): Got outkicked by Divine Fashion last out, a seven-time winner this year, but she held well for second; now she doesn’t have to face anyone that tough.
  3. #2 – Esperannna (5-1): Axel Concepcion, who already rode her to victory twice this year, gets back aboard; he’ll almost certainly send this filly straight to the lead.

RACE 7: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W2X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 4 FURLONGS

  1. #2 – Bandits Warrior (4-1): Another Robb trainee; her full brother, Bandits Heart, won here yesterday and her half-sister, Anna’s Bandit, is one of the best West Virginia-breds ever.
  2. #1 – R Averie Lynn (7-2): She’s already won three times in this year in gate-to-wire style.   
  3. #5 – Golden Effects (2-1): She’s tailed off from her best but could rally for a small slice

RACE 8: ALLOWANCE (OPEN), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 MILE

  1. #5 – Malibu Beauty (1-1): She was most recently second in the Timonium Distaff and should handle these with ease.
  2. #7 – Peyton Elizabeth (4-1): Winner of two straight for ever-dangerous Jamie Ness barn.
  3. #6 – Quiet Imagination (12-1): Hasn’t run a bad race in three dirt tries this year.

RACE 9: MAIDEN CLAIMING $45,000, 2-YEAR-OLDS, 4 FURLONGS

  1. #3 – Force of Justice (2-1): Ran hard against much better last out and should find things easier on the lead today.  
  2. #6 – Buckin’ Dreamer (5-1): One more tough name for Dave Rodman to get through before the meet ends; another entrant for dangerous Robb/Perez duo.
  3. #5 – Tocayo (4-1): Looks for rebound off dull last race; form was promising before that.

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