Laurel Park picks and ponderings February 16, 2020

Anna’s Bandit. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

In which we pick the races from Laurel Park each day…

Post time: 12:25 p.m.

Carryovers: Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 — $23,322; Super High 5 — None; Late Pick 5 — None

Notable: Could be a day of shorter prices, but races 5 and 6 may offer value.

RACE 1

5-4-1-3
Let’s see if #5 Galerio (2-1) can get back on track here in this maiden event; this one’s had in-and-out form, with big races interspersed with stinkers and failed last out at 3-5, but Gonzalez legs up go-to rider Cintron in this spot… Morning line favorite #4 Vero Sun (8-5) has decent speed figs but is still a maiden after eighth tries, all but one at PRX; the winner of his last went to CT to win an allowance next-out…

RACE 2

3-1-6-4
Longshot #5 Slewzer (10-1) has a bit of early lick, but the only real speed in here is #3 Fender Baby (2-1); this one makes her first start in two months-and-change and first after being claimed by trainer Wayne Potts; Potts has a 21% strike rate first off the claim and similar layoffs and puts up a bug boy, so look for this one in front early… Morning line favorite #6 My T Talk (9-5) loves this trip and has the ability to compete with these but enters off a pretty bland performance against better; we’ll want to see her bounce back before accepting favoritism on her…

RACE 3

6-3-1-5
Good effort last out by favored #6 Gauzy (2-1), who bid up to even terms, perhaps even a head in front, in the lane before settling for second while clear of the rest; she should be set for a good effort in her third off a lengthy break… #3 Sweet Talking Girl (9-2) didn’t show a ton on debut but gets some added ground for her second start, and you like to see rider McCarthy remain aboard for trainer Motion… #1 Savedbythebelle (3-1) has run OK so far in her brief career…

ANALYSIS

RACE 4

3-4-6-1
Big effort on debut by #3 Bright Dawn (1-2), who chased the speed, made a bid to the lead, and was just denied while remaining well clear of the others; a repeat of that makes him a graduate today… #4 Souper Cohiba (9-2) ran evenly in that same event after a slow break, but his breeding says he wants to go farther, which may mean that this race is more a tuneup to stretch out next time… #6 Lord Tiz (6-1) has run a couple of pretty good races, which makes that last trainwreck a bit of a puzzle and, perhaps, one to toss…

RACE 5

5-2-1-3
This allowance contest feels like a place where you might be able to take a swing; the morning line favorite is #2 Reflect (2-1), who ran fine to be third last out versus similar in a race from which the fourth-place finisher returned to win for $16,000, but it seems worth noting that rider Feargal Lynch, aboard last time, takes the day off today; she could certainly win, but short odds not enticing in this wide-open group… The Mancilla barn continues to enjoy 2020 — it had a first-our runner-up yesterday — and has #5 Our Star (9-2) in today; this Tapizar filly, out of the millionaire Silmaril, won easily last out and makes her first start off the claim today; Mancilla is 3-for-6 in recent months first off the claim… Trainer Jamie Ness has a pair in today in #1 Heatherly (15-1) and #3 Olive Kat (5-2), and it’s interesting that that go-to rider McCarthy lands on the former, although he rode the latter last time; it’s a big move to claim a horse for $12,500 in a race in which she runs poorly and move her up to allowance company (Ness: 24% first off the claim, claiming to allowance) and suggests some confidence in a runner with a half-dozen works under her belt since the first of the year…

RACE 6

7-5-4-2
Trainer Aaron West is a 23% trainer over the last five years, but an unknown quantity locally; he caught everyone off-guard when sending out #7 Fugiwhara (7-2) to a six-length romp at 13-1 odds last month and wheels right back in this starter contest; rider Jose Montano, one of the top CT pilots, comes in for just the one mount today… #5 Justin Front (6-5) won against similar last out, has three wins in his career, and looks to be one of a trio gunning for the early advantage (which also works to Fugiwhara’s benefit)…

ANALYSIS

RACE 7

4-1-2-5
We’d like the favorite, #4 Case Dismissed (9-5), better if there were some more pace players, but the late-running sort does love this seven-furlong trip and enters in good enough form… Let’s keep #2 Wilko Lovesong (20-1) on the ticket, just for yuks; this one has been in terrible form of late, but you just have to go back to October to find a horse who fits nicely with these…