Laurel Park picks and ponderings November 22, 2019

Anna’s Bandit. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

In which we pick the races from Laurel Park each day…

Post time: 12:25 p.m.

Carryovers: Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 — None; Super High 5 — None; Late Pick 5 — None

Notable:

RACE 1

4-8-9-2
Last time out #4 West Coast Sky (7-2) gave a pretty good account of herself, clearing to the lead in the lane before faltering while wandering about the track erratically; that was her second decent start in a row, and if she can keep it straight in the lane, she may graduate today… The speedy #8 Courtesy Shuffle (5-2) may give her something to sweat in the early going, though, as she made the lead last out early versus better before fading… Probably worth a look at the firsters in this spot, and we’ll have #9 Tap Toboggan (10-1) on the ticket; she’s been working well enough towards her debut for a trainer, Wayne Potts, who’s 5-for-41 with 2-year-olds debuting in maiden claiming company…

RACE 2

1-2-4-3
The likely favorite in here, #2 Olive Kat (6-5), has better figs than most of thse and some pretty good tries to run back to, including an easy win last out; but she’s going to be odds-on, most likely, and while trainer Jamie Ness and rider Trevor McCarthy are two of the most successful on the grounds, neither is having a great meet (10% and 12% strike rates, respectively) and together they have returned to bettors just about 60 cents on the dollar at the meet, which is a long-winded way of saying, “Let’s try to beat ’em at short odds”… We’ll take a swing with #1 Foggy Dreams (9-2), who does own an allowance win on the main track… #4 Little Skiff (7-2) ought to take to the dirt just fine; her siblings have been good on both turf and dirt, and Midshipman is a versatile sire…

RACE 3

3-6-1-7
Favored #1 Master Distiller (7-5) takes a precipitous drop to the $25,000 level after two stinkers, and if he can get back to the form he showed when trainer DePaz had him last winter, he’ll win here; but the odds are gonna be waaaayyyy short on a horse whose last two are awful and who has not raced in six months… If he falters, who else can win? Give a look to the class-dropping #3 Mystic Times (3-1), who should appreciate both the class relieft and the cutback to six furlongs after showing speed to the furlong grounds in three straight, and first-timer #6 Noble Way (8-1), whose trainer, Katy Voss, is 3-for-10 with four others in the money with runners debuting in maiden claiming company…

ANALYSIS

RACE 4

5-6-8-2
Drink up! #5 Tempted by Tito’s (3-1) is one of two live runners in here trained by Jerry Robb, and go-to rider Xavier Perez chooses this one… #6 Silver Sides (7-2) ran OK last time out — though that was back in August — in a race that produced two next-out winners and two runners-up…

RACE 5

9-3-5-8
True, his only win came while on the lead, but in his last couple, particularly two back at the Big T, #9 Analyze Your Risk (5-2) has shown the ability to run into a pace, which gives him the jump on his rivals in this speed-heavy contest; and he’ll be finding his lowest level to date… Don’t sleep on the other late runner here, #5 Mucho Macho Danny (8-1); the Claudio Gonzalez trainee did benefit from an ideal setup last time but went on to win easily, and Gonzalez wins at a 28% clip with a positive ROI with runners who broke their maidens last out… #3 Forfiftygiverocket (6-1) stands the best chance of the speedy types to survive after a good try last out…

RACE 6

3-9-4-7
On the drop from $25,000 company, this looks like a primo spot for #3 Amphitrite (2-1) to graduate; she contended with Magical Luna last time out, and that runner won that day and then doubled up yesterday against much better… #9 Baby Bam Bam (5-2) just missed last time against similar and rates a solid shot here…

ANALYSIS

RACE 7

6-3-7-11
There’s some speed in this nickel sprint, so we’ll give the edge to #6 Quality Matters (4-1), who figures to do his best running late; the Quality Road gelding makes his second start for trainer Michael Sandoval after an even effort against better last time… Two with early zip who could make an impact are #3 Expect Drama (8-1), who was second at this level last time, and #7 Crazed (9-2), who’s making his first start for trainer Hugh McMahon but is drpping in class… Favored #11 Flat Out Mine (5-2) certainly contends here if rider Francois can work out a trip from the outside; the top three to run back from her last all won their follow-ups…

RACE 8

13-6-4-11
Speaking of working out a trip, that’s what rider Victor Carrasco’ll have to do to get top choice #13 Call Triple A (8-1) into the winner’s circle; the Michelle Nevin trainee makes his second start off a 15-month layoff after a useful enough return against allowance foes at Parx… Another making a big drop is the Joe Sharp trainee #6 Always Forgiven (2-1), who two back was second against $32,000 three-year-olds but last out got throttled by older runners…

RACE 9

9-2-7-5
Favored #2 Bayano (3-1) takes a two-level drop here after a middling effort against better and may be tough… We’ll have him on the ticket but try to beat him with #9 Dyna’s Knight (5-1), who probably ought to appreciate the added ground today (he’s a son of Flat Out out of a Dynaformer mare)… Hall of Fame trainer King Leatherbury has had a rough 2019 but should contend in this spot with #7 Auld Lange Syne (8-1)…