Laurel Park picks and ponderings September 14, 2019

ANALYSIS

RACE 1 

Two-back effort from #6 Lady Kim (15-1) was a better-than-it-looks try against open $10,000 claimers, as four of five to run back have finished in the triple; she should appreciate facing beaten rivals here…

RACE 2 

Formful #8 Heza Kitten (7-2) rallied nicely last out against open $25,000 starters, gets back to more manageable foes here…

RACE 3 

Second-level allowance might see #7 Showalter (4-1) showing the way early in first try in two-plus months with top choice #5 Threes Over Deuces (3-1) getting a good stalking trip… Not completely sold on huge fig attained by favored #2 Won and Done (9-5) in last, and note that rider Cintron jumps ship to ride Threes Over Deuces here…

ANALYSIS

RACE 4 

First try in 18 months a winning one for new graduate #7 History Buff (12-1), easy winner last out on Colonial lawn. If he can bring that form to main track, he’ll win today. Also thinking #8 Takemetodinner (5-1) still has some upside in fourth career start and second off a two-month break…

RACE 5 

First time on the lawn for #8 Sky Magician (6-1), who had a useful first start of ’19 when right there for first five furlongs in the Star de Naskra and who is bred top and bottom to like the green stuff… Favorites here have holes…

RACE 6 

He disappointed last time out, but #3 Verboten (7-2) has better efforts to run back to and gets Vargas back in irons… #4 Hard Fought (6-1) gave willing chase before tiring late in last, should appreciate cutback to one mile…

ANALYSIS

RACE 7

The Arnaud Delacour-trained #5 Ode to Joy (4-1) won first two career starts but has lost two straight; returns to sprinting here, and note that she broke her maiden sprinting and was one of three next-out winners from that heat… Delacour has two contenders here, with #8 Ellyb (3-1) also rating a big shot after near-miss versus similar at CNL last out…

RACE 8 

Amusingly named #2 Barbara Gordon (7-2) makes career debut for Delacour barn with some pretty good works in the bank… Trainer Michael Matz doesn’t typically win much with first-timers, but #3 Bachelor’s Bait (8-1) is a half-sister to multiple graded winner Tequilita ($700,000+ earnings), who won twice, including a stake, at two… Note trainer Lacey Gaudet had a coupled entry, scratches out half, leaving just #1A Orbette (5-1)…

RACE 9 

#3 Top Hat Warrior (7-2) didn’t run well last time when in against much better, but it was an improvement from his prior try, on turf, and he has better efforts on the page that would be good enough here… Favored #4 Eddy Dirt (5-2) also finds lowest level here, ships in for trainer Rudy Rodriguez… #6 Son of Aponi (5-1) makes first start off the claim for trainer Cal Lynch (4-for-37 first claim) and gets Lasix for the first time…

RACE 10

Favored #1 Gold Man (5-2) ran evenly last out against better at the Big T (as the favorite) and scratched the following weekend, shows up here in lowest level on the page. The 10-year-old will make his 90th career start… We’ll try to beat him with the formful #6 My Eminence (3-1), owner of a three-race win streak… Don’t hold last out too harshly against #2 Incorporate (3-1), who was fourth against similar at DEL; he was 4-5 wide throughout and still stuck with it to the end…

RACE 11

Big drop here for #1 Alleria (5-2), who plummets from $40,000 level to $16,000 in search of inaugural victory; added ground may work to her advantage today, as credible debut came around two turns… That drop concerns us less than that of the favorite, #5 Art Thief (2-1), who makes the same 40-16 drop, but in just her second start after being claimed for $40,000…