LAUREL PARK PICKS AND PONDERINGS: january 20, 2024

In which we pick the races from Laurel Park each day…

Post time: 12:00 p.m.

Carryovers: 
Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 —$4,744
Jackpot Super High 5 — $3,965
Late Pick 5 — $0

Check out our other handicapping here!

RACE 1: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT, 3-YEAR-OLDS, 1 1/16 MILES

6-7-1-3

The first 10-race card of the year means an earlier-than-usual post time. #6 Allegrini (5-1) ships down from New York for Michelle Nevin, where he most recently finished third second time out after showing speed with a much-improved brisnet figure of 71. He handled the stretch-out from 6 1/2 furlongs to a mile with ease that day, and shouldn’t have much trouble with the added distance with the right trip. #7 Work Hard (8-1) finished a strong pace-chasing second in his dirt two-turn debut at Delaware Park last out (behind, of all horses, Play Hard), then ran well first off the bench going six furlongs last out. Gary Capuano might’ve used that shorter race as a prep for a spot like today’s. #1 Rocket Night (2-1) went off favored in his debut for the Brittany Russell barn last out (surprise!) and was a rather flat second. Still, it was an improved race compared to his prior starts for Bill Mott in New York, and he’s worked well since. Improvement could be afoot.

RACE 2: CLAIMING $40,000 (N/W2L), 4-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/16 MILES

3-2-7-6

#3 Order Ofthe Kettle (2-1) returned from a 10 1/2-month layoff last September at Pimlico, and got better in each of his three 2023 races. He’s getting a distance test here, as he’s never gone beyond seven furlongs. Still, he’s run in the 80s every time, so if he can handle the extra ground, and Brittany Russell is typically sharp with first-time route runners, he’ll have them beat. #2 King Covee (6-1) ran a much-improved 82 second time on dirt last out, and should get a much more ground-saving trip than last time. #7 Energy Efficient (12-1) consistently runs in the upper-70s and drops in class after trying open first-level foes last out. His peak isn’t as good as Order Ofthe Kettle’s, but he could at least shake up the exotics.

RACE 3: MAIDEN CLAIMING $30,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS, 5 1/2 FURLONGS

5-7-1-8

#5 I Had Enough (6-1) ran well first time out at Delaware in late June. He battled for the early lead and held onto third (albeit behind his dueling partner). He returned to the worktab in late November and has had some good drills since, including a bullet workout on January 7. He looks ready to go first off the bench. He definitely has an experience edge in here, considering there’s six first-time starters. Two of them look particularly interesting. #1 Indecent Behavior (10-1) races for the Lacey Gaudet barn, which has been winning everything in sight as of late. This one’s had a solid worktab: not too many works, but enough that you know he should run well at first asking. I’m curious as to what the board will say about him. #7 Rakia (9-5) has three bullet drills in his last four workouts for Brittany Russell, but (a) he’s debuting for a tag, and (b) Jevian Toledo has the mount instead of Sheldon. While he’s a bit vulnerable, he’s still worthy of respect.

RACE 4: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W2X), 4-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 1/16 MILES

2-1-6-4

Hey look, another Brittany horse who’s a contender! #2 Pharoahs Baby Gyal (7-2) looked like a potential star at about this time last year. She dominated a first-level field with an 89, then went to the sidelines for nine months. While she faded badly in her first start off the layoff, she probably could’ve used the race, and has worked well since then. This is also not the strongest second-level field in the world. #1 Freccia d’Argento (3-1) exits the same race as Pharoahs Baby Gyal. She finished third behind impressive winner In My Opinion (who returns in the What a Summer later today) and the ever-speedy Continentalcongres. In her prior starts, she ran a 91 and an 86, numbers that would easily beat these. Look for her to be on or near the pace from the rail. #6 I Can Run (2-1) ran in the 90s consistently in the fall, but has declined in her last two starts, and looks for a rebound here. She was outrun early last time and proved no match. If she can stay somewhat close to the pace today, she has a chance.

RACE 5: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $20,000, 4-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 5 1/2 FURLONGS

3-1A-8-6

A full field of sprinters lines up in the last race before the stakes action commences. #3 Casanova Kitten (3-1) ran a season’s-best figure twice in his last three starts of 2023, then topped that with an 89 last out behind much-the-best A C Expressway. This one’s in career-best form, and has tactical speed in a race with a lot of early foot. #1A Kadri (2-1) has declined in his last few starts, and drops from second-level allowance company. He dueled wide on the pace and faded that day, and while he’s drawn towards the outside again, he at least looks like the fastest one in the field based on early pace figures. If anyone’s going to clear to a loose lead, it’ll be him. #8 Foolish Ghost (6-1) won against better two starts back with a solid 87, then chased very fast fractions while wide behind Jeopardy James, who came back to finish second against better.

RACE 6: GEISHA STAKES, 4-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, MD-BRED/SIRED, 1 MILE

6-7-8-9

The first stakes race of the day, and the first of 2024 in Maryland, is named for the Maryland-bred dam of the great Native Dancer. #6 Northern Glow (7-2) got up to win a Maryland-bred allowance in game fashion two starts ago, then ran a solid second behind front-running winner Gold Digging Broad on a speed-favoring strip last out. She looks like she’s rounding back into her best form and should be tough. #7 Bella Bettina (30-1) has great closing speed that is well-suited to the one-turn mile. She’s closed to win twice in her last five starts, both times against similar rivals to today’s, and will be hard to hold off as long as the early pace isn’t too slow. #8 Mama G’s Wish (20-1) just missed after coming from off the pace last out, just missing her career-best figure with an 84. While she doesn’t always show her best stuff, her top figures make her interesting.

RACE 7: JENNINGS STAKES, 4-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, MD-BRED/SIRED, 1 MILE

5-8-4-7

The historic stakes is named for William Jennings, 19th century Maryland horseman who founded Glengar Farm. This race features a showdown between two promising Maryland-breds: #5 Seven’s Eleven (2-1) and #8 Post Time (9-5). Seven’s Eleven is a two-time stakes winner, having won the Maryland Million Sprint and the Bender Stakes, both against older horses, going away. The Bender win came on a biased strip, so he had something to prove going into his last start, a second-level race at a mile. He came up the inside and once again won impressively, showing he can win no matter what the circumstances. He should get another nice trip near the pace and register another stakes win. From there, open stakes company looms. Post Time picked up his first open stakes win last out, taking the City of Laurel Stakes. However, he didn’t show his usual effortless kick, having to work to get past Ninetyprcentmaddie in the stretch. He also missed a few weeks’ of prep time, but did return with two solid workouts at Fair Hill. While he must be respected, I feel like Seven’s Eleven will offer the better value. It’s worth watching the board. The hard-trying #4 Double Crown (3-1) looks like the best alternative to the big two, having most recently won the Manfuso Stakes in a determined upset. He isn’t always on, but when he is, he’s really on.

RACE 8: WHAT A SUMMER STAKES, 4-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 6 FURLONGS

7-2-6-4

The Maryland-bred sprinting star of the late 1970s is honored with this race. The speedy #7 White Chocolate (3-1) has been tearing it up since last August, having run either a 91 or a 93 in her four starts. She went gate-to-wire over first-level foes at Aqueduct last out, and gets a fairly soft landing for her stakes debut. She’s a serious threat to take them coast-to-coast. #2 Headland (2-1) came down from New York to win the Willa On the Move Stakes last out, and is now back for more. She has good tactical speed and used it to full effect in her victory last out, and she’ll be ready to take advantage if White Chocolate tires. #6 Kant Hurry Love (9-5) showed a change in tactics last out, coming from off the pace to finish a close second in the Garland of Roses Stakes at Aqueduct. She’s run at least an 89 in each of her last nine starts – only White Chocolate has done so in each of her last four, much less nine – and has a strong middle punch.

RACE 9: FIRE PLUG STAKES, 4-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS

1-10-3-2

The final stakes on the card is named for the star local sprinter of the late 1990s. #1 Frat Pack (5-1), who previously raced for Chad Brown in New York, makes his debut for the Kentucky-based barn of Whitworth Beckman. This one is similar to White Chocolate, in that he’s run huge figures against softer competition than what he’ll see here. Last out, he battled on the pace, sent his sparring partner into a double-digit length defeat, and drew off to victory. He’s worked well in Kentucky for his return, and should get a good trip stalking the pace on the inside. Fan favorite #10 Greeley and Ben (4-1), who needs to finish in the top two to become a millionaire, gobbled up ground to win the Dave’s Friend Stakes on this track two starts back. He didn’t show much in the Gravesend Stakes last out, but he’s shown a liking for this track, and has by far the best late pace figures in the field. #3 Classier (5-1) has had some time off since a sub-par race against open allowance company last out. He’s won four of six on this track, including a dominant win two starts back. Like Greeley and Ben, he’s likely come from off the pace.

RACE 10: CLAIMING $5,000 (CONDITIONED), 4-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 6 FURLONGS

3-5-1-4

My top two choices come out of the same January 7 race, in which they were both slightly outclassed. #3 I Have Courage (5-2) fell far behind early and struggled to make ground late, while #5 Alas and Alack (2-1) rated towards the back while wide and faded. I give a slight edge to I Have Courage, as she won twice in a row over the late summer and fall with solid figures, suggesting a higher ceiling than Alas and Alack, who won third off the layoff a few starts back, but declined in her next two. However, it’s close. #1 Mrs. Del (7-2) hasn’t raced since a dull race on Preakness week at Pimlico, but ran an 83 and a 76 in her two prior races, numbers that would easily defeat these. She’s only had one workout in the past month for Ray Ginter, so while she has a lot of upside, victory might be a tall task.

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