No rider has enjoyed the start of 2024 more than Jamie Rodriguez. The veteran jockey won six times last racing weekend at Laurel Park to bring his season total to 15 wins from 42 starts; that’s a colony-leading 4.92 wins above expectations.

The Racing Biz analyzed the performance of each rider and trainer versus the takeout-adjusted odds on their runners. Each jockey’s and trainer’s wins were compared to their expected wins. We include only jockeys that have made at least 50 starts in Maryland since the end of the Timonium meet and trainers that have made at least 25.

After a 9-for-19 opening weekend, Rodriguez cooled off, but only slightly, this past weekend, winning with six of 23 starters. Laurel canceled its Friday and Saturday cards this weekend but is scheduled to resume live racing Sunday.

While Jevian Toledo is Rodriguez’ nearest pursuer in wins – he’s seven-for-27 – apprentice Andres Chavez is second in wins above expectations. Chavez, who has won with five of his 15 mounts at the meet, has 3.25 wins more than his odds would have predicted. Others in the top five in wins above expectations include Jean Briceno (four wins, 1.93 above expectations), Forest Boyce (3, 1.21), and Toledo, whose seven wins are 0.95 more than his odds would have predicted.

To date, 38 riders have had at least one mount during the Laurel 2024 winter meet. Of those, eight have won more than their odds would have predicted.

His hot start to the meet also has Rodriguez leading the colony in percentage of purse earned. In his 42 starts, Rodriguez’ mounts have grabbed more than 27% of available purse moneys, well clear of any other rider. He’s followed by Chavez (22.1%), Toledo (21.8%), Briceno (19.4%), and Carlos Lopez, who has two wins from 11 starts and has secured 19.2% of available purse money.

MARYLAND JOCKEYS’ WINS ABOVE EXPECTATIONS (last 50 Maryland mounts)

Jockey	Starts	Wins	Expected wins	Wins above expectations
Rodriguez Jamie	50	16	11.42	4.58
Briceno Jean Gregor	50	8	4.46	3.54
Chavez Andres	50	9	5.50	3.50
Boyce Forest	50	8	5.07	2.93
Lyapustina Tais	50	7	4.60	2.40
Rosado Johan	50	6	4.50	1.50
Lopez Carlos Eduardo	50	7	5.80	1.20
Cruz Angel	50	7	6.70	0.30
Russell Sheldon	50	12	11.91	0.09
Ortiz Yomar Orlando	50	5	4.95	0.05

Among trainers, Jamie Ness has surged to the lead with six wins from 22 starts, but it’s his two nearest pursuers by wins who have had the hottest start to the year. Antonio Machado has won with four of five starters thus far, 2.82 wins more than his odds would have predicted. Lacey Gaudet also has four wins, hers coming from eight starters, which is 2.69 above expectations. Ness’s six wins are 0.28 below expectations.

Machado and Gaudet are among 26 trainers, out of 113 to have at least one start, to have won more often than their odds would have predicted so far in 2024 at Laurel. Of course, with most trainers in single-digits in starts, all those numbers are subject to substantial change.

Gaudet’s hot streak is part of a lengthy heater that has seen her win with 14 of her last 25 starters, 8.93 wins above expectations. Machado is 5-for-his-last-25, which is 1.69 wins above expectations.

Over her last 25 starts, Gaudet’s runners have taken more than 35% of available purse money, easily best among trainers with at least 25 starts in Maryland since the end of the Timonium meet. Brittany Russell (22.1%), Carlos Mancilla (21.7%), and Ness (20.9%) are the only others with at least 20% of purse money in their last 25 starts.

MARYLAND TRAINERS’ WINS ABOVE EXPECTATIONS (last 25 Maryland starts)

Trainer	Starts	Wins	Expected wins	Wins above expectations
Gaudet Lacey	25	14	5.07	8.93
Mancilla Carlos A	25	8	2.98	5.02
Brion Keri	25	6	3.23	2.77
Cooney Susan S	25	4	1.47	2.53
Alvarado Diane	25	4	2.14	1.86
Machado Antonio	25	5	3.31	1.69
Sanchez-Salomon Rodolfo	25	5	3.50	1.50
De Paz Horacio	25	4	2.60	1.40
Frock Charles A	25	4	2.86	1.14
Matz Michael R	25	4	3.00	1.00
Lynch Cathal	25	3	2.01	0.99
Keefe Timothy L	25	3	2.06	0.94
Shankle Joanne	25	4	3.22	0.78
Cibelli Jane	25	4	3.33	0.67
Salzman John E Jr	25	4	3.39	0.61
Gonzalez Claudio A	25	3	2.55	0.45
Corrales Jose	25	3	2.57	0.43
Capuano Gary A	25	5	4.58	0.42
Lawrence James Lee	25	2	1.67	0.33
Cox Kenneth M	25	3	2.67	0.33
Perri Gina	25	2	1.81	0.19
McKenzie Daniel J	25	3	2.87	0.13
Sillaman Richard P	25	3	2.88	0.12

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