Laurel Park jockeys and trainers to watch

Among the busiest jockeys and trainers in Maryland, seven riders and 17 conditioners are winning at a rate that’s at least one win per start higher than their odds would predict. Jockeys with at least 40 starts account for 88% of the wins at Pimlico and Laurel since the end of the Timonium meet, while trainers with at least 25 starts account for about 62% of all wins during that period.

The Racing Biz analyzed the performance of each rider and trainer versus the takeout-adjusted odds on their runners. Each jockey’s and trainer’s wins were compared to their expected wins; for comparison purposes, they were then translated into a final “Added wins per 100 starts” metric.

The top of the table among jockeys sees two new names in Jorge Hernandez and William Humphrey. Hernandez has won at a rate that is 1.59 wins per 100 starts higher than his odds would predict, while Humphrey is 1.38 wins per 100 starts above expectations. Both were just outside the list last week, and each added a win this week.

Above them are the same lead group as last week: Forest Boyce, Jeiron Barbosa, Jean Briceno, Martina Rojas, and Jean Alvelo. Just outside the top group is Tais Lyapustina, whose four wins equate to 0.86 wins per 100 starts above expected.

LEADING JOCKEYS (added wins per 100 starts)

NameStartsActual winsExpected winsAdded wins/100 starts
Boyce F841710.967.19
Briceno J G93105.564.78
Barbosa J1953829.674.27
Alvelo J C8185.003.70
Rojas M1131410.832.81
Hernandez J F5454.141.59
Humphrey W981210.651.38

The 30 trainers with at least 25 starts account for about 62% of all wins during the relevant time period. They range from 25 starts to 107 and from one win to 28.

Ray Ginter, Jr., who trains for Lynn Cash’s Built Wright Stables, continues to lead in added wins per 100 starts. His charges have won 7 races overall, a rate that’s 6.55 wins per 100 starts higher than expected. He edges out Jose Corrales (7 wins, 6.17 added per 100 starts) for the top spot.

Trainers with at least 10 wins who make the top group include Jamie Ness (25, 5.10), Kieron Magee (12 wins, 4.23 added wins per 100 starts), Hugh McMahon (12, 3.32), Rudy Sanchez-Salomon (10, 2.01), and Brittany Russell (28, 1.19), who won with four of eight starters locally over the racing weekend. Ten of the top 30 trainers by starts are winning less frequently than their odds would predict.

LEADING TRAINERS (added wins per 100 starts)

NameAdded wins/100 startsStartsActual winsExpected wins
Ginter Raymond Jr6.553974.45
Corrales Jose6.174774.10
Ness Jamie5.10892520.46
Cooney Susan S4.602831.71
Milosevic Milan4.273742.42
Magee Kieron4.2352129.80
Serey Mario Jr3.814675.25
Mancilla Carlos A3.463664.75
Smith Hamilton A3.344575.50
Mcmahon Hugh I3.3265129.84
Matz Michael R3.152743.15
Robb John J2.464564.89
Sillaman Richard P2.392643.38
Sanchez-Salomon Rodolfo2.0178108.44
Russell Brittany T1.191072826.73
Keefe Timothy L1.165954.32
Brion Keri1.152743.69