Laurel Park picks and ponderings November 30, 2019

Anna’s Bandit. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

In which we pick the races from Laurel Park each day…

Post time: 12:25 p.m.

Carryovers: Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 — $6,492; Super High 5 — $1,490; Late Pick 5 — None

Notable: Four stakes on tap today!

RACE 1

4-1-5-3
Your eyes aren’t deceiving you; all six of the runners in here really do look almost exactly the same. Since that’s the case, let’s see if we can find a mild upset with #4 Boat Over the Hill (9-2). The Jamie Ness trainee was throttled last time out against similar going six furlongs, but note that he did make a way too belated run and galloped out with the winner; the added ground might aid his cause and perhaps this one is sitting on a step forward… We’re going to draw a line through that last one for #1 Chasing the Candy (6-1); it was in the slop and at Charles Town, and he was reluctant to load and showed pretty much nothing; like to see rider Cintron remain aboard… #5 Five Star Perfect (3-1) and #3 Gray Gary (2-1) both look to be moving in the right direction…

RACE 2

3-4-5-1
Two first-out maiden winners highlight this 2-year-old allowance, and we’ll give the slight nod to the Jerry O’Dwyer runner #3 Decorated (5-2); he rallied from well back to get up late on debut and figures to benefit from the added ground today; O’Dwyer is 2-for-7 with horses who scored on debut making their second career starts, and both wins came, like this one, on relatively short rest (13 days in this case)… #4 Romanoff (7-5) may have won by just a half-length in his debut, but it was nearly eight lengths back from the runner-up to everybody else; he showed good speed and might be winging it in front here, but note that trainer Claudio Gonzalez is 0-for-9 with horses making their second starts after winning on debut…

RACE 3

2-7-6-4
Four-time winner #2 Zitarrosa (3-1) won last time out, and here in the second off the claim, trainer Anthony Farrior confidently moves her up a notch (he’s 6-for-17 with a positive ROI with this move); Zitarrosa is 4-for-6 on the main track and has tactical speed… #7 Dig Charlie Dig (5-2) drops a step off an acceptable effort behind a next-out winner but is hard to love on top since he so rarely wins (2-for-28 in his career)… Look for an improved effort from #6 Hill Shadow (6-1), who makes his third start after a 13-month break, picks up Forest Boyce in the irons, and has some solid efforts to run back to…

ANALYSIS

RACE 4 — CITY OF LAUREL STAKES

4-2-6-1
In his first try against stakes company — and first in five starts outside of NY-bred company — #4 Amundson (9-5) looks to be the speed of the speed in this seven-furlong contest; he’s won two straight at 6 1/2 furlongs and in both increased his advantage in the final furlong, so the distance doesn’t seem likely to be an issue; he’ll be the one to catch under Cintron… Favored #2 Honest Mischief (4-5) has kept the right kind of company and was beaten just three lengths in the G1 Woody Stephens and was third — albeit by 14 — behind Breeders’ Cup Sprint runner-up Shancelot in the G2 Amsterdam; he just cruised in a KEE allowance, though none of seven to run back has won; the late runner will have to reel in top choice late.. #6 Chilly in Charge (10-1) has run three good turf races in a row but is also a stakes winner on the main track… #1 Hall Pass (8-1) ran pretty well last out against a salty group in the Maryland Million Sprint…

RACE 5 — THIRTY EIGHT GO GO STAKES

6-5-3-8
The morning line favorite, #5 Vault (2-1) might well get bet down from here; she’s rather suddenly gotten good and absolutely obliterated a couple of allowance fields at Penn National, including a new track record last out (from the first of which five of six to run back finished in the triple next out); she’ll be seeing the best competition she’s seen yet, though, and we’re loath to take short odds on the step-up, so we’ll have her on the ticket but try to beat her on top with #6 Jehozacat (6-1), who makes her third start off a two-month break here for trainer Arnaud Delacour; this one has been racing on the turf exclusively the last two seasons but has some decent dirt tries on her resume, including a runner-up effort behind next-out stakes winner Sultry in a Keeneland allowance in 2017… The speedy #3 Beach Diva (7-2) — one of three trained by Delacour in a race in which Bernie Houghton also conditions three, including the favorite — rates a shot to take ’em all the way after a five-length win in allowance company going a mile…#8 Trace of Grace (10-1) ran second (at 37-1) in this event a year ago and won the Plum Pretty for PA-breds two back…

RACE 6 — RICHARD W. SMALL STAKES

7-2-3-6
What a fun horse is #7 Golden Brown (7-2): a graded winner on the turf who’s also a stakes winner on the main track, the Jersey-bred defeated fellow Garden Stater and morning line favorite #3 Sunny Ridge (5-2) three back, and the races sandwiching that one are nothing to sneeze at, either: a third-place finish behind Tom’s d’Etat, who won yesterday’s G1 Clark, and a fourth-place finish behind multiple graded winner Coal Front; he should be able to sit in mid-flight and unleash a run… #2 Han Sense (6-1) makes his first start after being claimed by trainer Kelly Breen and is showing two sharp works in the interim; Breen is 2-for-3 running horses he’s just claimed back in ungraded stakes company, and the works suggest this one is feeling frisky… Don’t ignore Sunny Ridge, either; the Jersey-bred is a graded winner and earner of over $1.3 million, and while his last wasn’t great, he’s fired fresh before…

ANALYSIS

RACE 7 — SAFELY KEPT STAKES

10-6-2-1
There looks to be plenty of early speed in this seven-furlong test, which might just put #10 Sweet Sami D (6-1) in the catbird seat; the Pat McBurney trainee, making her first start in two-plus months, was third behind Horologist and Jaywalk two back in the G3 Monmouth Oaks and then finished mid-pack in the G1 Cotillion; she should appreciate a bit of an easier spot today, and the cutback to seven furlongs might not hurt, either… Favored #6 Philanthropic (9-2) — did we mention what a wide-open race this is? — is one of those with early speed and looks to be moving in the right direction but had no answers last out when a well-beaten second behind Saguaro Row in the Pumpkin Pie at AQU… Feeling like #2 Needs Supervision (5-1) might be sitting on a top effort in her third after a seven-month vacation; this seven-furlong trip should hit her right between the eyes, and she’ll appreciate the class relief today…

RACE 8

3-7-5-2
Favored #3 Tappin Cat (8-5) arrives in career-best form for this allowance contest, with two wins and a third — in the Maryland Million Classic — in his last three, and here he catches a middling field for this second-level allowance… #7 Chargin Storm (12-1) has lost at this level several times but has several competitive tries… #5 Blame the Kids (4-1) seeks to step it up off a win versus lesser…

RACE 9

2-10-4-9
Trainer Dale Capuano does well with second-time starters like #2 Final Proof (9-2), who led a long way before fading going a mile in his career bow and should be fit to get it done today… Favored #10 Carey Times (8-5) ran a big one to be second in his debut but disappointed as the favorite in his follow-up, and it’s worth noting that none of seven to run back from that debut has won… Let’s put #4 Barrister (6-1) on the ticket; trainer Lacey Gaudet is 5-for-25 with runners debuting in maiden claiming company, and this Bodemeister colt is a half to a 2-year-old winner…