Laurel Park picks and ponderings November 29, 2019
Anna’s Bandit. Photo by Laurie Asseo.
In which we pick the races from Laurel Park each day…
Post time: 12:25 p.m.
Carryovers: Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 — $5,633; Super High 5 — None; Late Pick 5 — None
Notable: Trainer Michelle Nevin wins at a 30% clip with maiden claimers at Laurel Park.
- The speedy #2 Celtic Treasure (8-5) set a zippy pace last out and went on to win nicely up at PEN in a race that’s produced two next-out winners and a total of four (of five to run back) that have finished in the triple; he’s a three-time winner drawing in here by virtue of being a 3yo… #5 Lucid Dream (8-1) showed improved early foot last time out and my be sitting on a step forward…
- Top choice #6 Top Me Off (2-1) made a bit of a middle move last out against better before fading late and should appreciate some class relief today… Curious to see what leading trainer Claudio Gonzalez has up his sleeve with #5 Biz Nasty (3-1); the Fed Biz ridgling’s career best try came sprinting, but he’s sending her a mile here in her first start in two months… #2 Curlin’s Knight (3-1) might end up offering value; he just missed two back against similar at Belmont, and his form is darkened by a bad outing against much better in his first try over the sometimes challenging Parx surface…
- Pretty lukewarm group of bottom maidens will square off here, and one of these will graduate today… right? Top choice #1 Expect Talk (7-2) ran well enough three back in her last dirt try (albeit at the bottom at TIM), and that day’s winner, Ask Contrition, has won since; may not be much to hang your hat on, but it may be enough in this group… #8 Thirsty Again (2-1) probably goes favored in this contest in her second try off a nine-month break and second in Dale Capuano’s barn; like to see that Capuano waived the claiming tag last out, which suggests he at least hopes he can get this one running better….
- Top choice #2 Sybil’s Prophecy (10-1) won by a pole in her debut, but her subsequent tries leave something to be desired; she showed improved speed last out in her first with blinks and, with just three starts under her belt, still has room to improve; a return to her best would put her in the mix here… Morning line favorite #4 Crossingthevalley (5-2) just missed at this level last time, and two of three to run back have won their follow-ups; her best efforts have come going shorter, though…
- His entrymate scratched out but #1A Cowboy Mz (2-1) still can be a handful in here; the Jamie Ness trainee are kinda middling, but he has better efforts to run back to and projects as controlling speed… #4 Blue Y Gold (5-2) dropped below this level to win last out and perhaps regained confidence… His recent form doesn’t inspire hope, but #7 It’s the Journey (5-1) certainly has ample back class; he was a near-miss third in 2018 G3 General George…
- Good effort last time out by #7 Cause I’m Edgy (8-5) when second against similar; she won the speed duel before getting reeled in late and settling for second, and her main speed rival came back to win her next start… The lightly raced #5 Friend Me Charlie (5-1) makes her third start after a three-month break after a middling effort in a race that’s produced two next-out winners from four to run back… Let’s give #6 Had the Notion (15-1) one more crack; that was a superb effort two back when third (at 40-1) behind the hard-hitting (and now retired) Shimmering Aspen; that sort of run puts her right in the mix today, but whether that was a one-off or something repeatable remains to be seen; the value should be there if you want to fish in these waters…
- Top choice #2 Jazzy Juder (2-1) won the speed duel but lost the war last out, makes her second start after a two-month break… #6 Wee Monie Creek (10-1) made a bit of a middle move while wide after breaking slowly last time and should appreciate a bit of class relief on the drop into beaten company… #8 Fender Baby (9-5) presents a pretty similar profile as Jazzy Juder and has faced some better groups than these…
- Game effort last time by #4 Chicken Dinner (9-5), who re-rallied to just miss against similar and fits snugly at this level… We’ll give another crack to #5 Slowpoke (12-1), who did not run well last time but who two back rallied a bit against never-won-three rivals and should enjoy never-won-two company a bit more…
- Top choice #1 Silent Fluidity (8-5) made a middle move last time while well wide on the course throughout and understandably ran out of gas; the cutback and perhaps a less challenging trip won’t hurt… Trainer Michelle Nevin is 11-for-37 (30%) with maiden claimers at Laurel, and #3 Gottahaveaholiday (5-2) has better efforts to run back to… #6 Kickstartmyheart (4-1) hasn’t shown a ton so far but is lightly raced enough to offer the hope of improvement… You’ll get paid (and should) if #5 Bodette (12-1) gets the money in this spot; the daughter of Bodemeister will be the best of four out of her dam if she wins here, but it’s the type of group that a talented firster might handle…
LATEST IN HANDICAPPING
Handy tool for your big race handicapping: our database lets you find any horse that’s raced in a North American Derby points race, plus results and videos.
The legendary Derby Bill Watson returns with picks for all of the stakes on the Florida Derby day card!
Full-card picks and analysis for the day’s Laurel Park card, plus our stat of the day!