Spa selections 2019: Saratoga August 17

by | Aug 16, 2019 | Breaking, Handicapping

Pret Say Eye

Pret Say Eye was antsy early, strong late for trainer Lacey Gaudet (left) at Saratoga in 2016. Photo by Teresa Genaro.

by Joseph Aiello  

In Spa Selections, Saratoga on-site correspondent Joseph Aiello provides picks for a handful of key races at Saratoga, including all of the exciting stakes action! 

Race 7 – Mdn 90k

1. #1 Cost Basis (6-1) – Likely won’t get these odds with these connections, but this colt deserves a play at any number over five to one

2. #4 Candy Tycoon (2-1) – Unprecedented has some potential by Bayern, but this colt has slightly better connections in Jose Ortiz and Todd Pletcher

3. #6 Irish Mias (5-2) – Adding blinkers may have not been the best play for this colt by Sky Mesa, but he was closing well in his only start, nearly winning 

Race 8 – Smart N Fancy Stakes

1. #1 Fire Key (4-1) – Reverted to her closing style last time, nearly catching the leader in the stretch, and might be able to return to a front running style and wire the field here

2. #5 Morticia (1-1) – Moved just a tad too late last time, but almost always shows up and is a good bet to come in the money

3. #7 Oleksandra (7-2) – This mare owned by Team Valor International could take advantage of a pace that gets too hot, as she has won both tries with Rosario including against the colts

Race 9 – Grade II Lake Placid Stakes 

1. #5 Regal Glory (2-1) – Ran by Blowout last time in the Grade III Lake George, and will do the same here if she stalks

2. #1 Varenka (3-1) – Likely only other filly who could upset the Chad Brown duo, and with any pace from Blowout, she has as good a chance as any 

3. #4 Blowout (5-2) – Her best bet is to let someone else take the early lead, showing her nice closing kick that nearly had her beat Concrete Rose earlier this year 

Race 10 – Grade I Alabama Stakes 

1. #4 Champagne Anyone (10-1) – Will only win if she changes her running style back to coming from mid pack, but has three solid works in eleven days and has beaten Dunbar Road 

2. #1 Dunbar Road (8-5) – Obvious because of the connections, and the most likely winner unless the front runners either separate early, or get soft fractions 

3. #2 Lady Apple (6-1) – Point of Honor was moving well in the Coaching Club, but may be in bad form after a tough race, meaning this stalker has the best chance to win on the front end

Race 11 – Alw 80000n1x

1. #5 More Mischief (5-2) – Into Mischief breds have been running well at Saratoga this summer, and this filly seems ready to break through with a nice victory

2. #2 Sweet Meadow Mist (3-1) – Has the perfect jockey in Joel Rosario to showcase her strong turn of foot, where she closed from thirteen lengths last race to nearly miss 

3. #6 Take Me to Hardoon (5-1) – Ran against Jaywalk in her two year old season, but will clearly benefit from a distance cutback and jockey switch to Luis Saez