Maryland racing analyst Gabby Gaudet has thoughts on a Pick 5 on this afternoon’s card at Laurel Park!
Laurel Park has a Jackpot 50-cent Pick Five beginning in race 5, with a guaranteed minimum payout — if there is only one unique winner — of $200,000. Post time for the 5th is 2:28.
- Race 5 – 3, 4, 6, 9, 10
- Race 6 – 1, 2, 4
- Race 7 – 2, 5, 6
- Race 8 – 1, 4
- Race 9 – 10
- Wager cost: $45
We spoke with Gabby about her selections and the process of trying to be the lone winner. Here’s what she had to say:
“The fifth race is wide open. It’s the type of race that anyone can win, and if I could hit the ‘all’ button for a reasonably priced ticket, I would. Of the group, I thought Sarah’s Whisper really ran well last time, and it looked like they changed tactics, sending her to the lead. Plus the cutback from seven furlongs to six might work for her. But there are plenty of other horses here that also deserve a look.
“In the sixth, I think you’ve got a vulnerable favorite in Connemara Coast, who’s 2-1. His two starts to date are both good, especially his debut on dirt. But he’s been off since October of 2012; it’s hard to know if he’ll come back the same horse he was, and so it’ll be hard to take short odds on him. On the other hand, I think a couple of horses that are longer shots deserve a look here. #1 True Cruiser is a half to two pretty nice local horses, and Larry Murray does pretty well with firsters. On the one hand, #2 Thurmont has already made 14 starts without breaking his maiden; on the other, Robin Graham has only had him for four starts, and two of those were on turf. His two dirt starts for her were good, both second place finishes. In the latter of the two, in September at Laurel, he ran second behind the very talented Mean Season, who just made his second start the other day in an allowance at Aqueduct, where he won by eight lengths with a 105 Beyer. A repeat of that September race would put Thurmont in the mix here. Let’s also leave #4 Thirteenth Avenue in the mix; he ran second in his career debut in a race that’s already produced a next-out winner.
“The seventh, the Willa on the Move Stakes, is an interesting group. I’ve got to include #2 Popalicious, who’s lightly raced and moving in the right direction. She’s my top pick here; she is such a pretty filly and has such a presence about her, and I think she’s versatile enough to make the lead or sit back and make a run. I think #5 Five Star Momma might be the speed in this race, and she’s won three straight; you have to respect her. #6 Strike the Moon is solid and has a lot of back class; she more than fits in this group. I’m leaving #8 Lady Sabelia off the ticket, somewhat apprehensively. She’s awfully talented, but I felt like in her last race, she wasn’t quite the same horse.
“With the scratch of #6 It’s a Bang, the morning line favorite in the Maryland Juvenile Championship, race 8, this race sets up for #4 Joint Custody to get the money. He looked good in winning the Marylander earlier this month and should be good enough to beat these. But I’m going to also include #1 Fleet Gold Digger, who seems to improving pretty quickly and I thought ran well in winning an allowance last out.
“I feel like people will spread out in the ninth because they don’t want to get that far and then not hit the wager. To me, that means you have to look for a longshot that most people won’t have, and that leads me to single #10 Denver Duel, who’s 15-1. Everyone will have #11 Bellamy Fleet, who just won this race and has better Beyers; getting him probably won’t take down the pool. But I like that Denver Duel is two-for-two at this seven-furlong distance; the cutback from his last two should help. Plus, he’s getting major class relief after running twice in starter allowance company. He’s now in the spot where he fits, and I think he could run well.
(Featured image, of Ben’s Cat, by Laurie Asseo.)[boxify cols_use =”4″ cols =”4″ position =”none” order =”none” box_spacing =”5″ padding =”3″ border_width =”1″ border_color =”blue” border_style =”solid” height =”60″ ]