Triple Crown: Wood Memorial picks and analysis

The Grade 2 Wood Memorial has produced plenty of successful runners but hasn’t fared well as a Kentucky Derby prep over the past decade. In the last weekend of 100-point Derby points races, this prep shares the day with the Grade I Blue Grass and Grade I Santa Anita Derby, which have become stronger prep races. Still, these 12 runners have one final chance to punch their ticket to the Kentucky Derby.

Run at 1 ⅛ miles over Aqueduct’s dirt course, this race lacks a clear standout, with Richard Dutrow’s Withers winner Captain Cook entering as the only points race victor. Bob Baffert’s morning line favorite Rodriguez and Linda Rice’s Sand Devil appear to be the primary competition for Captain Cook, with Chad Brown’s Hill Road and Todd Pletcher’s Grande looking to step forward here at shorter odds. 

A pair of Midlantic-bred runners – Passion Rules and Omaha Omaha – have some upside here as longshots but will need to improve to have winning chances.

Starting from post two is Captain Cook (7-2), a bay colt by Practical Joke who broke his maiden over this track in late December. After that dominant 9 ¼-length win at seven furlongs, Dutrow entered Captain Cook in the Withers where he stalked a slow pace and won comfortably. Going nine furlongs there, this colt is clearly comfortable with distance, still with plenty left in the stretch as the other six entries failed to compete. Following that win, Dutrow made it clear that the Wood Memorial would be Captain Cook’s next start, as he raved about his performance and professionalism as well as connection with jockey Manny Franco.

“He didn’t break so well, and Manny said that he could have went to the lead with him any time he wanted to,” Dutrow, Jr. said in a release. “He said he knew the horses that were in front of him were the two main players, but he said, ‘Rick, I had them any time. I could have passed them at the five-eighths pole if I wanted to.’ But there wasn’t any reason to – they had their thing, and they were battling, and he [Captain Cook] was just sitting outside as comfortable as a horse could be.”

“Manny gets along with him well. He does a good job with him in the morning and the afternoons, so we are trying not to make changes there,” said Dutrow. “Since the Withers, Captain Cook has come out of the race good and done everything we’ve asked. We feel like he is definitely getting better and better each day.”

THE PICKS

1. #5 Sand Devil (8-1) Beaten fave in the Gotham looks to right the ship here

2. #2 Captain Cook (7-2) Hasn’t put a foot wrong since switching into Dutrow barn but needs a good outing to secure Derby points

3. #1 Rodriguez (5-2) Clearly a cut below West Coast rivals like Journalism and Citizen Bull, this Baffert trainee hopes to find NY a little more congenial

4. #8 Passion Rules (12-1)Maryland-bred has a spotless record but gets a major class test in here in first try versus stakes company

With great belief in this colt from both jockey and trainer, it is tough to not look forward to bigger things ahead. As Captain Cook just has twenty Derby points from the Withers, he will need to secure at least a show in the Wood to reach the usual 40- point threshold that typically gets horses to Kentucky.

“We’re lucky that he is the way he is in a race. He doesn’t have a lot of size to him, and he’s going to need to conserve everything he’s got, but man, he does that,” Dutrow said. “When Manny hopped off of that horse, he said, ‘Rick, I’m starting to dream.’”

One that didn’t have the same result last time out as Captain Cook is Sand Devil, a New York bred runner who appeared to be the best going into the Gotham Stakes. After stalking the lead most of the way, Sand Devil poked his head in front at the three-quarters pole, only to be passed by the longshot winner Flood Zone for Brad Cox. While he did stumble at the start, this post time favorite had no real excuses for losing to a lesser field following his game win in the Damon Runyan over this same course. 

“We felt like things didn’t unfold perfectly for him, but there’s no shame in being second in the Gotham,” Rice said. “He stumbled at the break and then rushed up and was head-and-head for the lead. Nothing went perfectly, but we still got 25 points.”

Linda Rice saw that try as a positive, and believes that he could improve with a bit more distance and a different pace scenario.

“You have to wait and see. We’re hopeful it will suit him and that the easier fractions might be helpful, but you never know until you send them out there,” Rice said.

With some of the better career speed figures of this bunch and just one loss in four tries, this is one that can certainly win here with a top flight effort, especially if he avoids pace pressure from the usually aggressive Baffert entry. At morning line odds of 8/1, there is plenty of value here for one of the few stakes winners in the field if he goes off at around that price. 

Rodriguez starts as the morning line favorite at 5/2 and breaks from the inside post with Mike Smith. As is typical of Baffert runners, this one tends to be forward, but has stalked the lead in his last two stakes tries, in which he finished well behind winners Citizen Bull and Journalism. Shipping over from the Robert B. Lewis and San Felipe in Santa Anita, this colt has 21.25 Derby points after a place and show in those efforts after conservative starts. The lone Baffert entry here, Rodriguez should break for the early lead, but will certainly need to improve after his last coupel. Entering the stretch in third in the San Felipe, Rodriguez was no match for the top two and faded to finish 11 ¼ lengths behind the winner Journalism. Distance may be a question here, but a forward trip appears to be a must to get the most out of this speedy colt by Authentic. 

Entering as the surprising third and fourth choices on the morning line, Hill Road (9-2) and Grande (5-1) both give top trainers Chad Brown and Todd Pletcher last chances to get starters to the Churchill gate in May. Hill Road has finished third in two straight graded races including the Tampa Derby, but will need plenty of pace to truly have winning chances here with his off the pace style. Grande starts with two wins in two tries, and should be stalking the lead with a win at the distance last time. While they face a weaker field than some other preps, these two still need to run their best races to topple what the top contenders have shown thus far.

After winning the most recent Aqueduct prep with Flood Zone in the Gotham, Brad Cox enters a Maryland-bred runner in Passion Rules (12-1) here from post eight. One of two Midlantic-breds entered along with the consistent Omaha Omaha (30-1), this colt will make his stakes debut with a spotless three-for-three record. Cox has picked up a handful of championship series wins this prep season, and has done so with longer-priced runners stepping up in class. This colt certainly needs to step forward to win, but should be making a late run with Kendrick Carmouche who will be hoping for a bit more pace in here than there appears to be. 

Entering as a last ditch effort to get into the Churchill starting gate, a group of top trainers bring in three year olds who have yet to win at the stakes level. Outside of Carlos Martin’s My Mitole and Dutrow’s “other” entry McAfee, none of these longshot runners have raced above allowance company. With two Wood Memorial winners over 50/1 within the last four years, however, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see one of these outsiders finish strong and find themselves in Kentucky next month. 

The Wood Memorial starts with a post time of 6:10 PM EST as race twelve on Aqueduct’s Saturday card.

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