The last of the Kentucky Derby points races is the Grade 3 Lexington Stakes run at Keeneland for a maximum 20 points to the winner. Going a mile and one sixteenth, this dirt route has been in place as a last gasp for horse who are on the cusp of the Derby field, but it has not produced a winner at Churchill since Charismatic in 1999. 

Because of the three-week timing between this race and the Derby, a good portion of the Lexington winners in recent years have opted to skip Kentucky, instead aiming for the Preakness and faring well in that spot. Even if there is a good chance that the winner or top finishers of this group don’t run in three weeks, this is still an important race to look out for going forward on the Triple Crown trail.

A perhaps surprising morning line favorite at 5/2 is The Wine Steward, a New York-bred colt by Vino Rosso-Call to Service, by To Honor and Serve. Trained by Michael Maker, this colt was perfect through three starts including a state-bred stakes victory at Saratoga in August, and then was second in the Grade I Breeder’s Futurity over this track. 

But that was back in October. Coming off a longer layoff, this mid-pack closer needs to show a return to form to have winning chances here, and with just five Derby points from the Futurity, probably isn’t headed to Louisville. With a $340,000 two-year-old price tag and some already impressive finishes under his belt, it is easy to see why he is highly regarded in this field, but still has questions to answer and improvement to show to be victorious.

The 7/2 second choice is Hades, who should factor into the early pace after recently breaking slow and standing no chance against the buzzsaw that was Fierceness in the Grade I Florida Derby. He was able to hold off potential Kentucky Derby favorite Fierceness in the Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park in early February, but did so on modest fractions. 

Joseph Orseno, who trains Hades, told Keeneland publicity that he is entering his colt here with the intent of running in the Kentucky Derby and that his charge “didn’t get a chance to run in the Florida Derby” after being bumped at the start. 

With an added emphasis on getting back to the early lead after Florida, Orseno is adding blinkers to Hades, stating, “I always thought he would be better with blinkers, but he kept winning and I couldn’t make the change. He’ll have blinkers here; little ones.” 

The outside-breaking Lucky Jeremy in this 10-horse field poses the biggest threat to Hades on the front end, being pushed to the lead in his last four starts. If Lucky Jeremy presses Hades to run faster than he wants, this could be a difficult spot to win. Hades has 30 Derby points and probably needs to win here to get a crack at the Run for the Roses. 

Perhaps the most interesting entry is Encino, the winner of the 20-point John Battaglia Memorial at Turfway in early March. Trained by Brad Cox, who has conditioned three of the last four Lexington winners, Encino was recently scratched out of the Blue Grass to compete here. His Battaglia showcased a strong late turn of foot as he ran past the favorite Epic Ride, who came back to finish a solid third in the Blue Grass last week. Building on that race in what was only his third start could be enough to have real winning chances here, especially considering the longer layoff for The Wine Steward and potential pace pressure for Hades. Jockey Florent Geroux should have this colt positioned in mid-pack in similar position to The Wine Steward, with a bit more upside shown than the other longshot closers in this field. 

Breaking from the nine post is Liberal Arts, the only graded stakes winner here outside of The Wine Steward and Hades. At 4/1 morning line, Liberal Arts has a slight edge on some others with four straight graded tries, all being Derby points races. Besides a disappointing eighth in the Arkansas Derby last time out, this colt by Arrogate-Ismene, by Tribal Rule finished third in the Grade 3 Southwest at Oaklawn, won the Grade 3 Street Sense at Churchill, and finished third in the Iroquois at Churchill in mid-September. Those finishes netted him 19 points, but this one still feels a step behind the other top contenders here. 

Having seven starts puts him as one of the more experienced of this group, but his best race in the Street Sense still probably isn’t good enough to top this field. Still, the class drop from Arkansas and a move forward today could put him in the mix. The right trip from Irad Ortiz is necessary, as this colt has been more of a deep closer so a very quick pace may be needed to hit the board. 

Hades (30 Derby points), Encino (20), Liberal Arts (19), and Lucky Jeremy (16) are the only Lexington runners with enough Derby points to date to have any realistic chance of making the field May 4. Hades would qualify with a win, as 50 points would tie him with three others for the 15th highest points total. The others all would need some defections to get there, so this race could very well have more impact on the Preakness than the Derby.

This year’s race will likely be determined by the potential pace duel between Hades and Lucky Jeremy, who could pave the way for Encino or The Wine Steward among others. A slower pace, however, could see one of those front-runners wiring this field. 

The Lexington Stakes has a post time of 5:48 EST as the tenth race on Keeneland’s Saturday card.

THE PICKS 

1. #8 Encino (5-1) 

2. #2 The Wine Steward (5-2)

3. #5 Hades (7-2) 

4. #10 Lucky Jeremy (8-1) 

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