Seven of the 16 jockeys that have made at least 25 starts at Charles Town in 2024, and 13 of the 30 trainers that have made at least 10, have won more races than their odds would have predicted.

The Racing Biz analyzed the performance of each rider and trainer versus the takeout-adjusted odds on their runners. Each jockey’s and trainer’s wins were compared to their expected wins. We include only jockeys that have made at least 25 starts at Charles Town this year and trainers that have made at least 10. The wins above expectations figure for riders includes only the last 50 starts for riders with 50 or more and is prorated to 50 starts for those with fewer. The same is true of trainers, though the relevant figure is 25.

TOP OF THE TREE Javier Rivera and Maximo Chilo are the only riders with more than two wins above expectations per 50 starts, with Rivera at 3.89 and Chilo at 2.58.

BUT WAIT, THERE’S MORE To see the full list of riders who have made 25 or more starts at CT and their wins above expectations, visit our Handicapping page.

BIG WEEKS Arnaldo Bocachica won with seven of his 16 mounts last weekend, while Christian Hiraldo won with five of 13; the duo led the colony in wins last week. Bocachica leads the colony with 19 wins at the meet, while his son Abnel, with 13 wins (1.65 above expectations/50 starts), is second. Abnel has won eight of his last 50 starts, 1.86 wins above expectations.

TAKING A PERCENTAGE Arnaldo’s recent heater has him securing 22.4% of available purse money in his last 50 starts, the most of any rider. Hiraldo, at 16.7%, is his nearest pursuer, followed by Andres Chavez (16.5%), Denis Araujo (16.3%), and Chilo (16.0%).

Jockey	Wins above expectations per 50 starts	Starts	Wins	Expected wins
Rivera Javier	3.89	28	5	2.82
Chilo Maximo	2.58	47	8	5.58
Bocachica Abnel J	1.86	50	8	6.14
Hiraldo Christian	1.38	50	9	7.62
Araujo Denis Vicente	0.88	50	8	7.12
Rodriguez V	0.51	50	5	4.45
Chavez Andres	0.23	37	7	6.83

GOOD THINGS IN SIXES Six trainers are winning at a clip that’s 2.0 wins or more above expectations in their last 25 starts (or per 25 starts for those with at least 10 but fewer than 25 starts). That includes torrid starts from Donald Barber (6-for-13, 8.64 wins above expectations per 25 starts) and Stacey Viands (7-for-19, 5.64).

GOOD GRAMS Among trainers with at least 25 starts at the meet, Tim Grams, with eight wins in his last 25, leads with 3.10 wins above expectations. Mike Jones, Jr. (4 wins, 0.54 above expectations) and Jeff Runco (7, 0.39) are the only other trainers with more than 25 starts locally to be winning above expectations in their last 25.

PERCENTAGE LEADERS Barber, 2-for-3 last weekend, has pulled in 35.0% of available purse moneys in his 13 starts to date, easily best at the track. Runco, at 25.1%, is next, followed by Viands (24.6%), Anthony Lucas (23.5%), and Wade Sanderson (23.4%).

BUT WAIT, THERE’S MORE To see the full list of trainers who have made 10 or more starts at CT and their wins above expectations, visit our Handicapping page.

AND FINALLY Those looking for Charles Town picks: expect them to return this week!

Trainer	Wins above per 25 starts	Starts	Wins	Expected wins
Barber Donald C	8.64	13	6	1.51
Viands Stacey R	5.64	19	7	2.72
Lucas Anthony	3.79	13	4	2.03
Sanderson Wade S	3.36	10	3	1.66
Grams Timothy C	3.10	25	8	4.90
Obed-Letts Keturah E	2.37	12	2	0.86
Sigler Ronald G	1.46	23	5	3.66
Ginter Raymond Jr	0.96	14	3	2.46
Davis Russell E	0.90	10	1	0.64
Reynolds Joan A	0.85	11	2	1.63
Jones Michael E Jr	0.54	25	4	3.46
Runco Jeff C	0.39	25	7	6.61
Shanley Timothy	0.07	18	2	1.95

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