LAUREL PARK PICKS AND PONDERINGS: january 27, 2024

In which we pick the races from Laurel Park each day…

Post time: 11:40 a.m.

Carryovers: 
Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 —$4,744
Jackpot Super High 5 — $3,965
Late Pick 5 — $0

Check out our other handicapping here!

RACE 1: MAIDEN CLAIMING $12,500, 3-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 6 FURLONGS

4-8-6-1

Thundercrack, baby’s back. #4 Sunny Sunshine (2-1) has shown speed and faded in each of her three starts, but she has easily the best early pace figures in the field, and this is the softest group she’s ever encountered. If she can’t take them gate-to-wire, I don’t know who she can. #8 Dazzling Demelza (6-1) improved sharply at third asking at Penn National. After showing nothing in two career outings here, she at least stayed somewhat close to the pace early on and held fourth. She’ll ty to keep moving forward here. #6 Notafraidtocharge (8-1) went off favored in her local debut last out, but had a bit of an awkward break and didn’t do much running from there. She’s making her first start for Rudy Sanchez-Salomon, and turned in a solid four-furlong drill in her first local workout at Pimlico on Sunday.

RACE 2: CLAIMING $10,000 (N/W2L), 4-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS

9-3-10-5

#9 Casino Tricks (10-1) has run brisnet figures in the 70s in each of his two dirt starts. He led most of the way last out, but was forced into setting very fast early fractions and backed up. The draw isn’t ideal, but he should at least have an easier time of things on the front end. #3 Porch Swing (5-2) ran a solid 77 first off a seven-month layoff last out, but did less than nothing last out and was well-beaten. He’s at least had a decent workout since then, which encourages me that whatever ailed him last out has been cured, and his other semi-recent races win this. #10 Verbier (12-1) just missed at this level two starts back at Monmouth Park, then finished fourth last out behind a pair of next-out winners. He hasn’t raced since that mid-July affair, but he’ll be tough if he runs back to his last two races. At his likely price, it’s worth a bet that he will.

RACE 3: MAIDEN CLAIMING $30,000, 4 AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES AND MARES, 7 FURLONGS

6-8-2-4

#6 Little Baby Girl (8-5) ran well in her dirt debut last out. She made a move to take the lead on the far turn, then fought with Mo Tough in the stretch and only yielded late. It was the first time in five starts she had shown much early speed; she’ll try to keep it going here. #8 Golden Charm (4-1) loves finishing second. She’s done so six times in nine starts, including a pair of defeats at 13-10 and 7-10 in each of her last two starts. She’ll likely rate in midpack and hang around for a slice, just like always. #2 Nami (9-2) ran by far a career-best race going 1 1/16 miles, making the lead from the rail after a slow break and holding second. She’s cutting back to a sprint today, so we’ll see if the improvement was due to a stretch-out or just general improvement.

RACE 4: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $20,000, 4-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 5 1/2 FURLONGS

2-1-8-3

#2 Casanova Kitten (5-2) was no match for the very impressive A C Expressway last out, but closed well off a contested pace and finished a clear second. He’s the only one in the field to have run at least an 86 in each of his last two starts. He’ll likely try to swoop them from towards the back of the pack. #1 Kadri (2-1) beat a second-level allowance field three starts back, but was no match for better fields at that level in his next two races. Jamie Ness gives him some class relief today, and will likely give Jaime Rodriguez instructions to send. #8 Foolish Ghost (5-1) was a bit too close to a hot pace last out and could only manage fourth, but will be well-positioned here if he can sit further off what looks like a potentially blistering tempo.

RACE 5: CLAIMING $10,000 (N/W3L), 4-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/16 MILES

2-10-3-9

#2 Strong Finish (4-1) lived up to his name last out, needing every bit of the long one-mile stretch to clear his non-winners of two condition. That last race notwithstanding, he generally stays closer to the lead, and could in fact find himself on or near the lead int his largely paceless contest. #10 Trash Talkin Larry (8-5) has a solid figure edge over these, having run an 85 and an 83 in his last two starts, but the outside draw with the short run into the first turn could make things tough. #3 Appendage (10-1) was third despite a rough trip at this level two starts ago, but showed little last out in a race where he was at a severe pace disadvantage. We’ll see if eh can rebound here.

RACE 6: CLAIMING $5,000 (CONDITIONED), 4-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/16 MILES

1-2-4-9

This looks like a two-horse race on paper, and I won’t try to beat either of the favorites. #1 Cavalry Command (3-1) gets the nod for me, as he looks to have a major pace advantage over these. He went gate-to-wire last out in a race where he looked like the lone speed, and is back under similar conditions 13 days later. If anyone will run him down, it will more than likely be #2 Galatians (7-5) who has run at least an 82 in each of his last three starts. No one else besides Cavalry Command has run an 82 even one in their three most recent races. He’s finished second behind the likes of Shane’s Jewel and Ace Nine Nine in those races, but doesn’t have to deal with anyone of that caliber today. #6 Steele Money (8-1) was no match for $25,000 rivals last out, but gets some class relief and Jaime Rodriguez in the saddle today. While Cavalry Command and Galatians will be tough, he should best the rest.

RACE 7: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $12,500, 4-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/16 MILES

8-9-5-2

Witt the extra-long card, this race begins the late pick 5. #8 Southern District (8-1) was a perfect 2-for-2 in the Jamie Ness barn, including a going-away win after a wide trip last out. He ran in the mid-80s in both of those races, not far off from the marks he ran before joining Ness, so he should still run well first off the claim by Donald Barr. #9 Up Against It (10-1) cleared from post seven and won going away in gate-to-wire last out, and will try to work out a similar trip from the outside post today. His only bad recent races came against rivals much better than those he’ll see here. #5 Never Change (3-1) ran at least an 84 in each of the last six dirt starts of his 2023 season, and was given some time off following a dull try on grass last out. He’s had three workouts at Charles Town since rejoining the worktab in mid-December for Ollie Figgins; we’ll see how he does first off the bench.

RACE 8: XTRA HEAT STAKES, 3-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 6 FURLONGS

5-4-3-1

The first stakes race of the day is named for the Hall of Fame sprinter of the early 2000s. #5 C C Royal (4-1) broke her maiden impressively going 5 1/2 furlongs two starts ago, then ran a credible third after racing wide on the pace going a mile last out. She should benefit from a cutback a distance. #4 Heart (8-5) showed good tactical speed in her maiden-breaking win, where she rated off the pace and won going away. New York shipper #3 Reconcile (9-5), who won on debut at Aqueduct last out, is likely to set the early pace. If she tires, Heart will be there to take advantage.

RACE 9: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W3X), 4-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/16 MILES

5-4-6-2

If you follow the circuit, you should be familiar with every name in this field. Wouldn’t be surprising to see the winner of this race return in the John Campbell Stakes in a few weeks. #5 Martini Martin (5-1) started his career on a six-race losing streak, but has since rattled off four straight wins, passing each class test with authority. Last out, he rallied from well off the pace and got up in the last few jumps to win at Parx. He should be able to mow them down once again. #4 Shaft’s Bullet (9-2) ran a game second to Magic Michael first off a long layoff two starts ago, but struggled last out following a wide trip. He should work out a better setup here. #6 Messier (7-5), who two years ago was considered the latest Baffert demigod, has raced just once since last February 1, finishing a solid third at Woodbine in November. He’s making his debut for the Rick Dutrow barn, which has been dominant in New York. While he has the class edge over these, his name recognition will make him a tough price to take.

RACE 10: SPECTACULAR BID STAKES, 3-YEAR-OLDS, 6 FURLONGS

4-7-2-8

The namesake of this race needs no introduction. #4 Copper Tax (5-2) had no chance in the Remsen Stakes last out, getting caught wide on a speed and rail-favoring strip. Take that race out, and he’s run in the 90s in each of his last four starts. He should bounce right back here. #7 Sweet Soddy J (8-1) was no factor in the Jerome Stakes last out, but excels on this track. He won the Heft Stakes here two starts ago, when he finally changed leads. He should also benefit by getting Jeiron Barbosa back in the saddle. #2 Mission Beach (7-2) won his first start for the Brittany Russell barn going away last out. He just missed his career-best with an 85, and while that’s a few points below the best of my top two, he has lots of upside and could easily improve off that race.

RACE 11: MAIDEN CLAIMING $20,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 1 MILE

2-9-1-5

#2 No Walk Inthe Park (6-1) closed well last out and got second behind odds-on choice Determined Blue, who blew the doors off that field. There’s no one in here as tough as that rival, and this one should benefit from the extra distance. Her best race to date was also her longest one, when she got second going seven furlongs three starts ago. #9 Troubled Dreams (9-5) ran as high as an 83 last spring and summer, and has worked consistently for her first race since September 1, when she was a pace-chasing second. #1 At First Sight (4-1) tried to press the pace last out, and faded to third behind No Walk Inthe Park. She still ran a career-best 63 in that spot, and is likely to be sent to the front from the rail.

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