Jockey Jaime Rodriguez began 2024 on a major hot streak at Laurel Park, winning with nine of his 19 opening weekend mounts to lead all riders, overshadowing a strong weekend for Jevian Toledo, who won five times. Both were among the top three in the local colony for wins above expectations over opening weekend, and the hot streak propelled Rodriguez to fourth-place among riders in their last 50 starts in that metric.

The Racing Biz analyzed the performance of each rider and trainer versus the takeout-adjusted odds on their runners. Each jockey’s and trainer’s wins were compared to their expected wins. We include only jockeys that have made at least 50 starts in Maryland since the end of the Timonium meet and trainers that have made at least 25.

On the training side, it was Jamie Ness and Brittany Russell who hit the ground running, the former winning with four of 12 starters and the latter with three of eight. Both were exceeding expectations, with Ness winning 0.70 races more than his odds would have predicted and Russell winning .08 above expectations.

In all, 25 riders have made at least 50 starts in Maryland during the requisite time period, and 10 have won more races than expected in their last 50. That list is topped by Tais Lyapustina, whose eight wins are 3.58 more than her odds would have predicted, with Forest Boyce, Jean Briceno, and Rodriguez all above 2.0 wins above expectations.

Sheldon Russell and Jevian Toledo led all jockeys by percentage of purse earned in their last 50 starts. Russell, with 13 wins in his last 50, is securing 22.6% of available purse moneys, while Toledo grabs 19.9%. Rodriguez is third with 18.4%.

MARYLAND JOCKEYS’ WINS ABOVE EXPECTATIONS (last 50 Maryland mounts)

Jockey	Starts	Wins	Expected wins	Wins above expectations
Lyapustina Tais	50	8	4.42	3.58
Boyce Forest	50	8	5.14	2.86
Briceno Jean Gregor	50	6	3.44	2.56
Rodriguez Jamie	50	12	9.88	2.12
Rosado Johan	50	6	4.41	1.59
Lopez Carlos Eduardo	50	7	5.80	1.20
Cruz Angel	50	7	5.89	1.11
Russell Sheldon	50	13	12.06	0.94
Chavez Andres	50	6	5.09	0.91
Crispin Alexander	50	4	3.98	0.02

Despite the recent success of Ness and Russell, it is Lacey Gaudet and Carlos Mancilla who top the tables in wins above expectations in their last 25 starts. Gaudet, 12 for her last 25, has won 6.65 more races than her odds would have predicted. Mancilla, with nine wins in his last 25, has 6.01 more than expected. Others on the higher end include Keri Brion (2.77 wins above expected) and Susan Cooney (2.53).

Overall, 23 of the 54 trainers with at least 25 local starts during the timeframe have won more than their odds would have predicted.

Gaudet leads the way in percentage of purse earned, having grabbed 32.7% of available purses in her last 25 local starts. Brittany Russell (28%) and Mancilla (24.1%) are her nearest pursuers.

MARYLAND TRAINERS’ WINS ABOVE EXPECTATIONS (last 25 Maryland starts)

Trainer	Starts	Wins	Expected wins	Wins above expectations
Gaudet Lacey	25	12	5.35	6.65
Mancilla Carlos A	25	9	2.99	6.01
Brion Keri	25	6	3.23	2.77
Cooney Susan S	25	4	1.47	2.53
Alvarado Diane	25	4	2.15	1.85
Sanchez-Salomon Rodolfo	25	5	3.20	1.80
Howard David C	25	6	4.27	1.73
De Paz Horacio	25	4	2.60	1.40
Perri Gina	25	3	1.64	1.36
McKenzie Daniel J	25	4	2.74	1.26
Matz Michael R	25	4	3.00	1.00
Lynch Cathal	25	3	2.11	0.89
Corrales Jose	25	3	2.15	0.85
Shankle Joanne	25	4	3.22	0.78
Cibelli Jane	25	4	3.33	0.67
Salzman John E Jr	25	4	3.39	0.61
Cox Kenneth M	25	3	2.53	0.47
Capuano Gary A	25	5	4.58	0.42
Lawrence James Lee	25	2	1.67	0.33
Sillaman Richard P	25	3	2.78	0.22
Mcmahon Hugh I	25	3	2.78	0.22
Gonzalez Claudio A	25	3	2.78	0.22
Frock Charles A	25	3	2.79	0.21

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