Trainer Carlos Mancilla won with two of four starters this past racing weekend at Laurel Park to continue a torrid meet that has seen him win 14 of 51 local starts (27%). It also kept him in the lead among local trainers in wins above expected in his last 25 starts. On the jockey side, Angel Cruz also had a pair of wins and tops the table in wins above expectations.

The Racing Biz analyzed the performance of each rider and trainer versus the takeout-adjusted odds on their runners. Each jockey’s and trainer’s wins were compared to their expected wins; jockeys were limited to those with at least 50 starts in Maryland since the beginning of the Timonium meet, while trainers had to have made at least 25 starts during that period. The comparisons were made among only each rider’s last 50 starts and each trainer’s last 25.

Cruz is 11 for his last 50, while his adjusted odds would have predicted him to have 7.43 wins. The difference — 3.57 wins — has him well ahead of all other riders in their last 50 starts. Cruz is followed by Forest Boyce, whose seven wins in her last 50 starts are 2.09 more than expected; Tais Lyapustina (6, 1.95); apprentice Andres Chavez (6, 1.69); and Jorge Hernandez, with his six wins being 1.55 more than expected.

Overall, 24 riders have made at least 50 starts in Maryland during the time period, with eight of them having won more races than their odds would predict in their last 50.

Cruz is also atop the list in percentage of purse earned in his last 50 outings, having grabbed 16.5% of available purses. Apprentice Martina Rojas (15.7%) isn’t far behind, and those two are followed by Sheldon Russell (15.2%), Jamie Rodriguez (15.0%), and Jevian Toledo (14.4%).

MARYLAND JOCKEYS’ WINS ABOVE EXPECTATIONS (last 50 starts)

Jockey	Starts	Wins	Expected wins	Wins above expectations
Cruz Angel	50	11	7.43	3.57
Boyce Forest	50	7	4.91	2.09
Lyapustina Tais	50	6	4.05	1.95
Chavez Andres	50	6	4.31	1.69
Hernandez Jorge F	50	6	4.45	1.55
Humphrey William	50	5	4.34	0.66
Rojas Martina	50	9	8.42	0.58
Carrasco Victor R	50	6	5.81	0.19

Since the beginning of the Timonium meet, 50 trainers have made at least 25 starts in Maryland, and 22 of them have won more in their last 25 local starts than their odds would have predicted.

Mancilla’s recent 9-for-25 heater is the most wins in their last 25 of any local trainer, and it’s 5.72 wins above expectations. No other trainer approaches even half that number. His nearest pursuer is Daniel McKenzie, whose five wins in his last 25 are 2.49 more than would have been expected. They are followed by Keri Brion (6, 2.36), Jose Corrales (4, 1.87), and Susan Cooney (3, 1.46).

Mancilla is also the only trainer to have earned more than 20% of available purse moneys in his last 25 starts; he’s raked in 24.5%. He’s followed in that regard by Raymond Ginter (19.3%), Brittany Russell (19.2%), Gary Capuano (19%), and Jamie Ness (17.8%).

MARYLAND TRAINERS’ WINS ABOVE EXPECTATIONS (last 25 starts)

Trainer	Starts	Wins	Expected wins	Wins above expectations
Mancilla Carlos A	25	9	3.28	5.72
McKenzie Daniel J	25	5	2.51	2.49
Brion Keri	25	6	3.64	2.36
Corrales Jose	25	4	2.13	1.87
Cooney Susan S	25	3	1.54	1.46
Howard David C	25	5	3.69	1.31
Matz Michael R	25	4	3.00	1.00
Salzman John E Jr	25	5	4.14	0.86
Alvarado Diane	25	4	3.16	0.84
Russell Brittany T	25	7	6.19	0.81
Eubanks Annette M	25	3	2.21	0.79
Sanchez-Salomon Rodolfo	25	4	3.22	0.78
Cibelli Jane	25	4	3.33	0.67
Ginter Raymond Jr	25	4	3.41	0.59
Serey Mario Jr	25	3	2.45	0.55
Perri Gina	25	2	1.45	0.55
Cox Kenneth M	25	3	2.48	0.52
Lynch Cathal	25	3	2.60	0.40
Sillaman Richard P	25	3	2.66	0.34
De Paz Horacio	25	3	2.72	0.28
Capuano Gary A	25	5	4.74	0.26
Smith Hamilton A	25	3	2.87	0.13

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