LAUREL PARK PICKS AND PONDERINGS: december 15, 2023

In which we pick the races from Laurel Park each day…

Post time: 12:25 p.m.

Carryovers: 
Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 — $0
Jackpot Super High 5 — $0
Late Pick 5 — $0

Check out our other handicapping here!

RACE 1: CLAIMING $25,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 MILE

6-4-5-2

#6 Goldieness (1-1) is a heavy favorite on the morning line, and deserves every bit of the adulation. She led almost all the way around at this level last out, losing after a stretch duel to stakes-placed Liquidator. There’s no one of that rival’s caliber here, and no one fast enough to run with her early. #4 Jackson’s Dixie (7-2) just held on to win against gems of a slightly lesser water last out, holding off next-out winner My Sister Nancy. Last out, she chased the pace on a speed and rail-favoring strip and finished second behind Joya del Sur, who returned to get second against better in her next start. Even if Goldieness runs them off their feet, Jackson’s Dixie is certainly good enough to chase the pace and outkick the rest. #5 Memento Mi (15-1) has faced better most of the year, and has by far the best late pace figures in the race. She’ll likely lumber down the long one-turn mile stretch and grab a slice.

RACE 2: MAIDEN CLAIMING $20,000, 2-YEAR-OLDS, 1 MILE

9-4-8-2

I’m betting on a Jamie Ness early double. #9 Minxzluckystarfyre (2-1) rallied gamely in the stretch last out and lost in a three-horse blanket photo. It represented improvement from his debut, where he made only mild ground late, and he looks poised to take another step forward here. #4 Return Fire (4-1) went off favored against softer last out, but proved no match for upset-minded first-time starter Photo Hop. He did manage to hold on for second, for his third runner-up finish in his six-start career, and looks like the sturdiest speed in the race. #8 Whiskeyinthejaro (6-1) drops from the $30,000 level, where he was an even fifth in a race where the speed horses never got tired and blew the rest away. He’ll hope the leaders come back to him today.

RACE 3: CLAIMING $10,000 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS

4-9-10-6

#4 Ice Cold Frosty (3-1) ran a solid race second off the 11-week layoff last out, chasing loose leader Irish Warlock and holding second with a career-best brisnet figure of 79. He’s run at least a 74 three times in his last four starts; that type of race probably wins this. #9 Casino Tricks (6-1) makes his dirt debut here after four tries on grass. He faded after pressing the pace while wide (the trouble indicated in the running lines was overstated), but ran a gutsy race on the lead and got second two starts ago. If he can clear from his post and settle off the pace while not losing too much ground, he’s got a shot. #10 Prins Fire (2-1) flattened out and held second in his first start going beyond a mile last out. He generally does his best work in sprints, with consistent figures in the low/mid-70s.

RACE 4: MAIDEN CLAIMING $45,000, 2-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 1 1/16 MILES

6-3-1-8

#6 Sakura Sky (5-2) ships from Kentucky for Will Walden. She raced wide a long way last out at Churchill Downs, but ran on well late and finished second with a career-best 74, the second straight race where she showed noticeable improvement. #3 Been Real Busy (2-1) also made her last start in Kentucky, but is racing first off the claim by Jamie Ness. She set the pace and held second in both her starts at the Keeneland meet, and is very likely to once again set the early tempo. #1 Battling Time (8-1) improved to a 65 at second asking last out, rating in mid-pack and running on well late, though she was no match for impressive winner Viennese Waltz. That one finished second to Kissedbyanangel next out, who in turn returned to win the Maryland Juvenile Filly Stakes.

RACE 5: CLAIMING $20,000, 2-YEAR-OLDS, 6 FURLONGS

2-1A-5-3

#2 One Way Farrior (3-1) and #1A Paco the Taco Man (5-2) are the only ones in his 11-horse field who have beaten winners. As such, they get the nod as my top two choices. One Way Farrior sat the trip and got up to win at Mahoning Valley last out with a career-best 81. He should get another good setup near the rail and convert. Paco the Taco Man grinded out the victory against starter optional claiming foes at Parx last out, but struggled on a wet track in his most recent start. We’ll see if he improves on the return to a fast surface. #5 All the Way (7-2) was recently scratched out of two tougher spots, including the Maryland Juvenile, and now finds himself here. He ran his second straight figure in the 70s last out, breaking his maiden after rating near the pace and kicking on despite lugging in.

RACE 6: MAIDEN CLAIMING $20,000, 2-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 5 1/2 FURLONGS

5-4-12-8

#5 Irish Rage (10-1) made a promising move in her dirt debut last out, but flattened out. She has room to improve at a good price second time on this surface. #4 No Walk Inthe Park (8-1) improved sharply at second asking. She outfinished her dueling partner by 6 1/2 lengths, but ended up losing to a rival who got the nice trip 4 1/2 lengths off the battle. She still fought hard in the lane and lost grudgingly. #12 Sharmin (8-1) tries dirt for the first time, after four tries on grass with largely decent results, and should press the pace from the outside.

RACE 7: CLAIMING $10,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/16 MILES

7-2-5-15

#7 Fun Lovin Criminal (5-2) has crossed the wire first twice in a row, but was disqualified from his win last out, a race where he beat some of the rivals he’ll see here. He’s the only one in the field who has run in the 80s in each of their last two starts, with his tactical speed his biggest asset. #2 Alottacents (3-1) was bumped by Fun Lovin Criminal last out and subsequently got put up to first. He’s rounded into career-best form in his last few starts. #5 Cavalry Command (5-1) has faded on the front end in his last few starts, but looks fast enough to clear to the rail and the lead and give himself every shot.

RACE 8: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $12,500, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS

3-1-8-6

#3 Nottoway (6-5) scratched out of a starter allowance spot last Saturday to run here. He was one of a few contenders in this spot, but here, his figures bowl the rest of these over. He’s won four of his last six starts against similar, and should prompt the pace and take over without much trouble. #1 Winners Laugh (9-2) was eased after lugging out in his last dirt start, but bounced back with a solid fourth-place effort against a tough field on grass next out. He ran a huge race third off a nine-month layoff at Aqueduct in mid-March, where he was pressed on the pace and kicked away to win with a 92. He has a very high ceiling, and could fall through the cracks in the betting. #8 Tauber (6-1) will make his first dirt start in more than a year here. He returned from a three-month break in mid-October, and has improved with each start. His closing kick is usually just enough to get a share.

RACE 9: MAIDEN CLAIMING $20,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 1/16 MILES

3-2-6-7

Lacey Gaudet has them surrounded here; she trains both of my top picks. #3 Gun Runnin’ Gal (2-1) has the best last-out figure in the field by 18 points, having run a 76 in a runner-up effort at Parx in her most recent race. She outfinished 1-5 choice Two Minute Lick, but couldn’t get by the winner, who pressed the pace and set very mild fractions. #2 Graceful Union (4-1) showed speed earlier in the year at Churchill, and turned in a sub-par effort after breaking a bit slowly last out. She’s worked well over the past few weeks, and will be tough if she bounces back and makes the lead. #6 Connie’s Dance (20-1) hasn’t shown much in her last two starts, but rallied well despite late traffic at Pimlico in early June. this’ll be her first start around two turns since then, and it wouldn’t be surprising if she worked her way into the exacta at a good price.

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