Laurel Park jockeys and trainers to watch * The Racing Biz

Laurel Park jockeys and trainers to watch

Frank Vespe
December 7, 2023

Trainer Carlos Mancilla and apprentice rider Martina Rojas have been on good runs of late, winning at a high percentage and doing so more often than their odds would predict.

The Racing Biz analyzed the performance of each rider and trainer versus the takeout-adjusted odds on their runners. Each jockey’s and trainer’s wins were compared to their expected wins; for comparison purposes, they were then translated into a final “Added wins per 100 starts” metric. Additionally, we rated each on the percentage of available purse money they have taken, combining these two metrics into one single rating.

Rojas, a winner with nine of her last 50 starters, narrowly edges Angel Cruz and Jevian Toledo for the top spot over each rider’s last 50 starts. She has a composite rating of 90.19, just ahead of Cruz, whose score is 89.14, and Toledo (82.93).

Rojas’ nine wins in her last 50 outings are almost 2.6 more wins than her odds would predict, while Cruz, with 10 wins, has 3.3 more than his odds suggest. Others scoring well in that category include Forest Boyce (8 wins, 2.7 above expected), Jorge Hernandez (7, 2.6), and Tais Lyapustina (6, 1.7).

TOP MARYLAND JOCKEYS (last 50 starts)

Jockey	Total rating	Win %
Rojas Martina	90.19	18.00%
Cruz Angel	89.14	20.00%
Toledo Jevian	82.93	20.00%
Russell Sheldon	73.45	20.00%
Rodriguez Jamie	69.70	20.00%

Toledo, Rojas, and Sheldon Russell have netted the highest purse percentage in their last 50 starts. All three are above 17%, with Toledo at 18.3%.

For the Laurel meet to date, Boyce has the top rating of 90.76. She’s followed by Jaime Rodriguez, Toledo, Russell, and Rojas.

Among trainers, Mancilla has won with seven of his last 25 starters. That’s good for a 28% strike rate and is 3.7 wins more than his odds would predict. That, coupled with his gobbling up nearly 22% of available purse money in that period, gives him the top overall rating of 99.

He’s followed in recent form by Jose Corrales (92.62 composite rating), Jamie Ness (84.58), Raymond Ginter (77.16), and Gary Capuano (75.76). All have won at least four races in their last 25, with Ginter the lowest; Ness has won eight, the most.

Mancilla and Corrales have both easily exceeded what their odds would have predicted. Corrales’ 6 wins are nearly 3.9 wins more than his odds would have predicted in his last 25 starts.

For the meet to date, Mancilla’s recent hot streak has him the highest-rated trainer (95), followed by Ness (94.47). They’re followed by Kieron Magee, Ginter, and Brittany Russell.

TOP LAUREL PARK TRAINERS (last 25 starts)