Of the 20 jockeys with the most Maryland starts since the Pimlico September meet kicked off, six have won at a rate that’s at least one win per 100 starts higher than their odds would predict. Of the 22 trainers with at least 25 starts in that same period, seven have at least four more wins per 100 starts than predicted by their odds.

The Racing Biz analyzed the performance of each rider and trainer versus the takeout-adjusted odds on their runners. Each jockey’s and trainer’s wins were compared to their expected wins; for comparison purposes, they were then translated into a final “Added wins per 100 starts” metric.

Having earlier enjoyed a 9-for-20 streak, veteran rider Forest Boyce is atop “Added wins per 100 starts” leaderboard. She has gone 14-for-62 over the last couple of months, her 14 wins more than five higher than the 8.78 wins her odds would have projected. That translates to a colony-leading 8.42 added wins per 100 starts.

During that period, Jeiron Barbosa has been the leading rider, registering 33 wins from 151 mounts. That’s 10 more wins than any other rider — and about 10 more than his odds would have predicted — and Barbosa has added 6.74 wins per 100 starts.

Others adding at least one win per 100 starts include Jean Briceno (8 total wins, 5.51 added wins per 100 starts), Jean Alvelo (6, 3.52), apprentice Martina Rojas (12, 2.70), and Yomar Ortiz (5, 1.85).

LEADING JOCKEYS (added wins per 100 starts)

Name	Added wins/100 starts	Starts	Actual wins	Expected wins
Boyce Forest	8.42	62	14	8.78
Barbosa Jeiron	6.74	151	33	22.83
Briceno Jean Gregor	5.51	72	8	4.03
Alvelo Jean C	3.52	61	6	3.85
Rojas Martina	2.70	96	12	9.41
Ortiz Yomar Orlando	1.85	54	5	4.00

While the top 20 jockeys account for about 85% of the total winners during this period, the top 22 trainers — those with at least 25 starts — have registered just 58% of the 262 winners. Of the group, seven are averaging at least four wins added per 100 starts versus their expected wins.

Topping the table is Ray Ginter, Jr., who trains for Lynn Cash’s Built Wright Stables. Ginter has won with seven of 33 starters versus odds that would have predicted 4.1 victories. Prorated to 100 starts, that equates to 8.79 wins added per 100 starts.

Trainers with at least 10 wins who make the top group include Hugh McMahon (12 wins, 6.68 added wins per 100 starts), Rudy Sanchez-Salomon (10, 5.62), and Kieron Magee (10, 4.56). Maryland’s leading trainer in that period, Jamie Ness, has 20 wins and is just outside the top group with 3.94 added wins per 100 starts.

LEADING TRAINERS (added wins per 100 starts)

Name	Added wins/100 starts	Starts	Actual wins	Expected wins
Ginter Raymond Jr	8.79	33	7	4.10
Mcmahon Hugh I	6.68	54	12	8.40
Sanchez-Salomon Rodolfo	5.62	59	10	6.68
Cooney Susan S	5.52	26	3	1.57
Magee Kieron	4.56	44	10	7.99
Smith Hamilton A	4.41	37	6	4.37
Keefe Timothy L	4.40	41	5	3.20

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