Are Incredibolt – and the Virginia Derby – wise guy plays?
Kentucky Derby hopeful could open some eyes
Nick Hahn
April 30, 2026
It snowed during live racing at Colonial Downs earlier this year. Is that as much as an omen needed for the Virginia Derby winner to capture the Kentucky Derby?
“For all the work and everything that’s going on here in Virginia, everyone can take some pride in that, if that was to happen, we can certainly say the Kentucky Derby winner came from Virginia via the Virginia Derby,” Frank Hopf, Senior Director of Racing at Colonial Downs, said in an interview.
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Forty-eight hours after this year’s first raceday at Colonial Downs in the snow, jockey Jaime Torres, aboard Incredibolt, found room on the rail turning for home and surged to a convincing four-length win in the second $500,000 Virginia Derby run in March and…. on dirt.
“Could Incredibolt, the son of Bolt d’Oro, be the wise guy horse?” Danny Brewer wondered in Forbes.
It is starting to appear that way.
“I think he’s a sneaky third, fourth, somewhere underneath type of action,” Travis Stone, the Churchill Downs track announcer who also called the Virginia Derby, said on the Kentucky Derby and Oaks Morning Works Show. “I don’t know if he’s good enough to win this Derby. He’s going to give a good showing of himself.”
In addition to Incredibolt’s sharp Virginia Derby score, the sophomore is 2-for-2 at Churchill Downs, including a good-looking win in last fall’s Grade 3 Street Sense over the strip.
“He’s a horse that’s on the improve,” remarked FanDuel’s Mike Joyce on Breakfast at the Kentucky Derby. “This is a horse who had been very good in just about every start including that one in the Street Sense. The past performances at Churchill Downs really come into play where you are making your way to the Derby.”
Stone and Joyce stand among many expecting Incredibolt to outrun his 20-1 morning line odds. If confident about his Virginia Derby win, a recent work at Churchill Downs only makes one feel better.
“I like the way he looked today,” said Mike Welsch in the DRF Clocker Report for the Daily Racing Form. Following Incredibolt’s “well in-hand” workout on April 26, Welsch noted, “He has looked good since he’s been here. He’s going to be one of the livelier longshots on Derby day.”
“Looks like he did it within himself and was getting over the track well,” noted trainer Riley Mott on the Derby and Oaks Morning Works Show. “Looks like he’s recovering extremely well after the work. I compare that horse to a racecar, plenty of gears underneath the hood and always at your fingertips.”
With Torres aboard, Incredibolt’s 47-second half-mile was second fastest of 71 clocked at Churchill Downs that morning. Torres, who won the 2024 Preakness with Seize the Grey for late trainer D. Wayne Lukas, is set to make his first Kentucky Derby start. Mott is also making a bold debut into the Kentucky Derby, saddling Incredibolt and Albus, who won the Wood Memorial in his last start, also with Torres aboard. Given the choice of mounts, Torres chose to stay with Incredibolt with Manny Franco aboard his stablemate.
With Mott’s father, trainer Bill Mott, having won the Kentucky Derby last year with Sovereignty, an Incredibolt (or Albus) win would create a back-to-back, father-son feat for the ages in any sport.
Odds were high on moving the Virginia Derby to a March mini-meet on dirt at Colonial Downs. Changing the surface and separating the date the marquee race from the body of the primary seemed a risky undertaking at first. The race happens in tidewater Virginia at the end of college basketball’s championship week during the ACC tournament and when weather can be iffy.
“Obviously, the race had a long history being at its previous distance and surface,” Colonial Downs’s Hopf said. “Moving to March, one of the biggest unknowns was just what’s the weather going to be. What’s the surface going to be like in that time of year here in Virginia? Colonial Downs is known for turf racing even though the dirt surface is just as good. It’s kind of a unique racing situation with not having horses in the stalls in the barn area prior to the race week. It’s more of a race-and-go situation. At some point, hopefully, the amount of days for races expands.”
With Colonial’s large dirt track 1 ¼ miles around, the nine-furlong prep is contested around one turn starting in the chute. That makes it a little different from other Kentucky Derby prep race configurations, especially running later in the prep calendar.
For Virginia Derby participants, the seven-week separation from the first leg of the Triple Crown creates a dilemma on whether to find another race or not. With 50 Kentucky Derby points awarded to the winner, another prep season start becomes voluntary.
After American Promise won the inaugural Virginia Derby run on dirt last year, the late D. Wayne Lukas initially said he wanted to get another start but then trained his charge up to the Run for the Roses. American went off at 20.57-1 and moved up to third, within a length of the lead heading into the turn for home, before fading to 17th over a sloppy racetrack with Nik Juarez aboard.
For other Virginia Derby participants another prep start is mandatory. Last year’s second-place Virginia Derby finisher, Render Judgement, needed one more race and earned five extra points with a fifth-place finish in the Toyota Bluegrass Stakes to find his place in the Kentucky Derby. He followed American Promise finishing 18th for trainer Ken McPeek with Julien Leparoux aboard.
This March’s second-place finisher Ocelli, trained by Whitworth Beckman, was initially 22nd in the Derby points standings. But after the defections of Silent Tactic and Fulleffort, he, along with Great White, will draw in.
The first two editions of the Virginia Derby on dirt have drawn sellout crowds on rain-free afternoons and developed interest that carries through the Triple Crown and into the summer meet which starts earlier this year on June 25.
“It’s been fantastic,” said Hopf. “We’ve lucked out with weather on the Saturdays, but the crowd has really been enthusiastic and had a great time. They’ve stayed, especially this past year. I think everyone stayed almost to after the last race went official.”
The Virginia Derby has made a meaningful Kentucky Derby presence. The switchover has been a statewide success. Incredibolt may demonstrate that to a broader audience.
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