Angel Cruz remained hot with three more wins last weekend at Laurel Park, giving him 11 wins in his last 50 starts and keeping him atop the leaderboard among jockeys in wins above expectations. On the trainer side, Carlos Mancilla likewise remained red-hot, winning with three of four starters; he’s won with 11 of his last 25 runners at Laurel.

The Racing Biz analyzed the performance of each rider and trainer versus the takeout-adjusted odds on their runners. Each jockey’s and trainer’s wins were compared to their expected wins; jockeys were limited to those with at least 50 starts in Maryland since the beginning of the Timonium meet, while trainers had to have made at least 25 starts during that period. The comparisons were made among only each rider’s last 50 starts and each trainer’s last 25.

Cruz’s 11 wins in his last 50 are two more than any other rider has managed in his or her last 50, and his 3.35 wins above expectations are also the highest. He is one of nine riders — out of 25 qualifiers — to have won more often than his odds would have predicted in his last 50 starts. Others above two added wins are Tais Lyapustina (7 wins, 2.92 above expectations) and Forest Boyce (7, 2.10).

Overall, 25 riders have made at least 50 starts in Maryland during the time period, with nine of them having won more races than their odds would predict in their last 50. Sixteen others have won less frequently than their odds would have predicted.

Five jockeys are clustered at the top in purse earnings as a percentage of available purse in their last 50 starts, all with between 15.6% and 16.4%. Cruz tops that list, too, with 16.4%, followed by Sheldon Russell, Martina Rojas, Jevian Toledo, and Jamie Rodriguez.

MARYLAND JOCKEYS’ WINS ABOVE EXPECTATIONS (last 50 starts)

Jockey	Starts	Wins	Expected wins	Wins above expectations
Cruz Angel	50	11	7.65	3.35
Lyapustina Tais	50	7	4.08	2.92
Boyce Forest	50	7	4.90	2.10
Crispin Alexander	50	6	4.16	1.84
Chavez Andres	50	6	4.31	1.69
Humphrey William	50	5	4.24	0.76
Rosado Johan	50	5	4.28	0.72
Rojas Martina	50	9	8.48	0.52
Carrasco Victor R	50	6	5.97	0.03

Since the beginning of the Timonium meet, 51 trainers have made at least 25 starts in Maryland, and 19 of them have won more in their last 25 local starts than their odds would have predicted.

Mancilla continues to have the hottest of hands, with 11 wins in his last 25 outings (44%) and nearly 7.5 wins more than expected. Lacey Gaudet is his nearest pursuer in the latter category, as her eight wins are 3.43 above expectations. Gaudet was 2-for-2 last racing weekend and has won with eight of her 18 December starters.

Mancilla, Gaudet, and Brittany Russell all are taking more than 20% of available purse money in their last 25 starts with Mancilla (28.6%) leading the way.

MARYLAND TRAINERS’ WINS ABOVE EXPECTATIONS (last 25 starts)

Trainer	Starts	Wins	Expected wins	Wins above expectations
Mancilla Carlos A	25	11	3.52	7.48
Gaudet Lacey	25	8	4.57	3.43
Corrales Jose	25	5	2.15	2.85
Brion Keri	25	6	3.40	2.60
Alvarado Diane	25	5	2.47	2.53
McKenzie Daniel J	25	4	2.26	1.74
Cooney Susan S	25	3	1.41	1.59
De Paz Horacio	25	4	2.43	1.57
Salzman John E Jr	25	5	3.79	1.21
Matz Michael R	25	4	3.00	1.00
Russell Brittany T	25	8	7.23	0.77
Howard David C	25	5	4.30	0.70
Cibelli Jane	25	4	3.33	0.67
Eubanks Annette M	25	3	2.41	0.59
Cox Kenneth M	25	3	2.62	0.38
Perri Gina	25	2	1.66	0.34
Capuano Gary A	25	5	4.74	0.26
Sillaman Richard P	25	3	2.75	0.25
Sanchez-Salomon Rodolfo	25	3	2.99	0.01

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