Jockey Angel Cruz won twice December 9 and twice more on December 10, while trainer Carlos Mancilla won with two of five weekend starters at Laurel Park over the weekend. Those strong weekends have them topping their respective charts in wins above expectations of late.

The Racing Biz analyzed the performance of each rider and trainer versus the takeout-adjusted odds on their runners. Each jockey’s and trainer’s wins were compared to their expected wins; jockeys were limited to those with at least 50 starts in Maryland since the beginning of the Timonium meet, while trainers had to have made at least 25 starts during that period. The comparisons were made among only each rider’s last 50 starts and each trainer’s last 25.

Cruz has won with 10 of his last 50 mounts; only Sheldon Russell has won as many in his last 50. What’s more, had Cruz’s mounts run to their odds, they would have been expected to win just 7.17 races. His 2.83 wins above expectations are the most of any rider in his or her last 50. Only two other riders — Jorge Hernandez (2.73) and Forest Boyce (2.49) — have outperformed expectations by at least two wins in their last 50.

Overall, nine of the 23 riders with at least that many starts have outperformed expectations in their last 50.

In terms of percentage of purse earned, Jevian Toledo and Martina Rojas have been tops in that category, earning nearly 18 percent of available purse funds over each of their last 50 starts. They’re followed by Sheldon Russell (17%) and Jaime Rodriguez (16%).

MARYLAND JOCKEYS’ WINS ABOVE EXPECTATIONS (last 50 starts)

JOCKEY	STARTS	WINS	EXPECTED WINS	WINS ABOVE EXPECTATIONS
Cruz Angel	50	10	7.17	2.83
Hernandez Jorge F	50	7	4.27	2.73
Boyce Forest	50	8	5.51	2.49
Lyapustina Tais	50	5	4.08	0.92
Humphrey William	50	5	4.68	0.32
Briceno Jean Gregor	50	4	3.72	0.28
Rojas Martina	50	8	7.79	0.21
Alvelo Jean C	50	3	2.90	0.10
Chavez Andres	50	4	3.98	0.02

Of trainers Mancilla has won with eight of his last 25 Maryland starters, a 32% strike rate that is also five wins above what his odds would have predicted. For good measure, he is also leading all trainers by percentage of purse earned in his last 25 starts at nearly 24%.

In all, 49 trainers have made at least 25 starts in Maryland during the requisite timeframe. Twenty-two of them have won more races than their odds would have predicted. Two other trainers, Daniel McKenzie (5 wins, 2.49 above expected) and Jose Corrales (4, 2.06), also top two wins above expected. They are followed by Keri Brion (5, 1.51) and Susan Cooney (3, 1.46) at the top of the leaderboard.

Mancilla is well clear in percentage of purse earned; in fact, he’s the only conditioner above 20 percent. The remained of the top five includes Gary Capuano (19%), Raymond Ginter (18.7%), Brittany Russell (17.5%), and McKenzie (17.4%)

MARYLAND TRAINERS’ WINS ABOVE EXPECTATIONS (last 25 starts)

Trainer	Starts	Wins	Expected wins	Wins above
Mancilla Carlos A	25	8	2.96	5.04
McKenzie Daniel J	25	5	2.51	2.49
Corrales Jose	25	4	1.94	2.06
Brion Keri	25	5	3.49	1.51
Cooney Susan S	25	3	1.54	1.46
De Paz Horacio	25	4	2.76	1.24
Matz Michael R	25	4	3.00	1.00
Sanchez-Salomon Rodolfo	25	4	3.08	0.92
Eubanks Annette M	25	3	2.21	0.79
Alvarado Diane	25	4	3.23	0.77
Howard David C	25	4	3.29	0.71
Cibelli Jane	25	4	3.33	0.67
Salzman John E Jr	25	5	4.36	0.64
Ginter Raymond Jr	25	4	3.42	0.58
Serey Mario Jr	25	3	2.42	0.58
Perri Gina	25	2	1.45	0.55
Cox Kenneth M	25	3	2.54	0.46
Lynch Cathal	25	3	2.60	0.40
Sillaman Richard P	25	3	2.66	0.34
Capuano Gary A	25	5	4.74	0.26
Russell Brittany T	25	6	5.87	0.13
Smith Hamilton A	25	3	2.90	0.10

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