Laurel Park picks and ponderings October 16, 2021

by John Piassek | Oct 16, 2021 | Breaking, Handicapping

Horses race down the stretch at Laurel Park. Photo: The Racing Biz.

In which we pick the races from Laurel Park each day…

Post time: 12:40 p.m.

Carryovers: Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 — $11,714 Super High 5 — $3,760 Late Pick 5 — $10,618

ANALYSIS

RACE 1: CLAIMING $16,000 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 6 FURLONGS

2-1-7-5
We’ve got a field of seven for the first of nine races on the Saturday card. After a long streak of good weather, there’s a chance of rain today, so be advised. #2 Live Aid (5/2) drops to the n/w2L claiming level for the first time after a string of near-misses against starter optional claiming company. She has plenty of early speed, but not a ton of stamina. We’ll see how far she can go. #1 Mending (5/2) is a recent claim from Churchill Downs for Anthony Farrior. She ran a gutsy race last out at Churchill Downs, battling on the pace all the way and hanging in until the last eighth. She was in the two-path in the first quarter, then got over towards the rail and stayed there to the end. Here, she’ll be on the inside the whole way. #7 Hufflepuff (2/1) went off as the 6/5 favorite in her first start at this level last out, and ran a gutsy race on the lead on the outside. She’ll likely have a similar trip here, but you’ll get a better price if you still believe.

RACE 2: CLAIMING $8,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 1/16 MILES

7-4-1-2

#7 Floating By (6/1) has the best last-out brisnet figure in the race, having earned a 74 against similar last out at Penn National. She’s been slowly improving since returning from a three-month layoff in early July, and has good late speed. #4 Mizzen Air (7/5) turned in a clunker last out at Monmouth Park, after rating off a fast pace. She has one workout since then, but it was very slow. She ran figures in the mid/upper-80s earlier in the year, and it’s possible she recovers that form. Don’t know if I’d take her at low odds, though. #1 Simmard Shenanigan (4/1) has crossed the wire first in four of her last seven and will sit the trip on the inside. She crossed the line first against open claimers at Delaware Park earlier in the year, but was disqualified.

RACE 3: MAIDEN CLAIMING $16,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES AND MARES, 7 FURLONGS

7-6-4-1
#7 Secret Prize (4/1) goes first out for Mike Trombetta and races for a tag on dirt for the first time. She improved sharply second time out when switched to grass, running a 68 in a two-turn affair. Here, we’ll find out if that was due to the surface or just general improvement. #6 Special Freedom (3/1) also returns to dirt after a disappointing grass start last out. She runs in the upper 60s and low 70s consistently on this surface. Xavier Perez gets the mount for the first time. #4 Hummin the Funk (9/2) made a strong, wide bid last out at Timonium and just missed second. Looks like she could be on the verge of a breakthrough.

ANALYSIS

RACE 4: CLAIMING $16,000 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 5 1/2 FURLONGS (GRASSS)

6-10-13-9 (DIRT: 6-2-7-11)
The rainbow pick 6 carryover has blossomed to more than $11,000. We’ll see if that pool can last until Maryland Million day last Saturday. #6 Minnetonka (3/1) made it to the front end from post 11 last out, and set a fast pace before fading in the last eighth. Should have an easier time getting to the lead here. #10 Sassy Babe (5/1), like Minnetonka, is lightly-raced, with this being her third grass start. She goes first off the claim for Hugh McMahon, gets Feargal Lynch in the saddle for the first time, and also has lots of speed. #13 Social Exclusion (4/1) has been facing better n/w2L types lately. She went around two turns at Parx last out, and came from far behind to get fourth with a ton of late energy. She’ll take advantage if the pace is too fast for the speedsters.

RACE 5- ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W1X), 2-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 7 FURLONGS

6-1-3-9
#6 Murph (8/5) crushed the field in the Small Wonder Stakes at Delaware last out, with far and away a career-best mark of 87. She’s not Maryland Million-eligible, so Brittany Russell has elected to drop her in this spot instead. This could be the springboard for some stakes tries in the fall and winter. #1 Dotada (6/1) improved fourteen points to break her maiden going away last out. Cuts back a bit from a mile and looks to take advantage of the long stretch run. #3 Olivia Darling (15/1) also enters off a maiden-breaking win, when she hung around on a fast pace and got clear late. Could shake up the exotics at a price.

RACE 6- ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 7 FURLONGS

1-5-3-6
#1 Moquist (9/5) is a perfect 2-for-2 in her career, and has not trailed at any point of call during her races. She ran a big second quarter and drew off from a Maryland-bred field last out. Will be tough to catch on the lead. #5 Fraudulent Charge (2/1) was stakes-placed three times over the winter, and makes her first start since March 13. Might need a race first off the bench, but she’s improved in every start and looks as if she has a high ceiling. #3 Belle of the North (6/1) was impressive in her maiden-breaking score last out, giving Jose Corrales his lone win of the meet to date. She came from last in each of her last two starts, and ran career-top marks in both those races.

ANALYSIS

RACE 7– ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 5 1/2 FURLONGS (GRASS)

10-8-3-6 (DIRT: 9-5-4-7)
#10 Chromeplated Heart (7/2) broke her maiden at first asking in June, and has been improving at this level. Last time, she got run off her feet by the favorite, Golden Can, but at least managed to hold for third with a career-top figure of 89. #8 Polished Gal (3/1) just got up to win a Maryland-bred allowance last out, surging in the last few moments to victory. She’s improved in every start since returning from a long break in early July. #3 Honorgetic (5/1) has never lost against winners and has lots of early speed from the inside. He’s one of two horses Mychel Sanchez is named on today.
RACE 8 — ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, MD-BRED, 1 MILE

1-2-3-4
#1 Depository (5/2) courageously battled on the lead to win against open n/w1x company two races back. He ran well on grass last out, in a similar performance. It looks as if he’s on career-best form. #2 Reassured (3/1) makes his second start of the year here. He was impressive in his maiden-breaking win last November, but has struggled in two starts since. Adds blinkers for Brittany Russell. #3 Royal Number (4/1) races second off the layoff. He drew off over this track earlier in the year to win at this condition for 3-year-olds by 7 3/4 lengths. He raced at 5 1/2 furlongs last out, a distance that is too short for him, but he still closed good ground late.
RACE 9 — MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES AND MARES, 6 FURLONGS
3-4-6-5
#3 American Bastest (4/1) goes third off the layoff, off a strong third-place rally last out at Parx. She narrowly missed her lifetime-top mark of 80 in that race. Adds blinkers here. #4 Maggie’s Bid (5/2) has finished second in each of her two starts and improved six points last out. She showed a bit more speed last out than in the race prior. #6 By the Hour (4/1) was outkicked by Maggie’s Bid in her dirt debut last out, but she still ran a decent 74. She’ll try to build on that race for Russell and Toledo.