Triple Crown: Santa Anita Derby picks and analysis
100 Kentucky Derby points on the line
Joseph Aiello
April 4, 2026
A field of seven takes on the 100-point Santa Anita Derby this weekend with four returning from the San Felipe last month. A pair of Baffert entries are headlined by 2/1 morning line favorite and San Felipe winner Potente, who breaks outside his stablemate from post two.
Baffert has picked up a record nine Santa Anita Derbies in his career, and has been a primary reason for this becoming a strong Derby prep. As Potente already has 50 Derby points, this race should be a good tuneup for the three-year-old colt who takes on a pair of Doug O’Neill trainees, including the improving Robusta who he narrowly bested last time out.
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Potente won at first asking, going six furlongs in a gate to wire win over the strip. He then stepped up into the San Felipe at a mile and one sixteenth, sitting behind the first grouping from the jump. As the 8/1 fourth choice, this colt passed the tiring leaders who set an honest first half mile, including Doug O’Neill’s 67/1 Robusta who returns here at 8/1 on the morning line. Both jockey Juan Hernandez and trainer Bob Baffert were encouraged by Potente, with Baffert highlighting his two turn potential to Santa Anita officials.
“Potente is bred to go that far. He was ready for that,” Baffert said. “[Jockey Kaz] Kimura told me he thought the horse was a two-turn horse. That horse that ran second (Robusta) is not a bad horse that he beat. He beat Cherokee Nation. We’re moving forward with Potente. He’ll have another start before the Kentucky Derby.”
Now with just two starts, Potente carries his $2.4 million price tag into this final prep as one that should be a top contender in the Kentucky Derby and is clearly the one to beat here.
Breaking to the inside of Potente is his stablemate Cherokee Nation (5/2), who finally broke maiden in his sixth try last time out.
THE PICKS
1. #2 Potente (2-1) – Undefeated son of Into Mischief dug in to prevail narrowly last out; plenty of upsdie.
2. #1 Cherokee Nation (5-2) – Kind of an all or nothing proposition: prior stakes are terrible, but maiden breaker last out was dazzling.
3. #7 Intrepido (7-2) – Grade 1 winner at two looks to recapture juvenile form in second start off the bench.
4. #5 So Happy (7-2) – Couldn’t hang on after setting rapid fractions in first two-turn outing last out..
Running fifth in both the Kentucky Jockey Club and Robert B. Lewis, this colt has just three Derby points but ran by far his best race in his recent 10-length romp. Time will tell if that effort was simply a one off or a step in the right direction for a colt who is maturing quickly and sold for $1.15 million as a yearling. Either way, he should factor into the pace here as he stretches out another furlong from his maiden win, which may set up well for Potente, who figures to finish from mid pack again.
Doug O’Neill enters two runners in Vitruvian Man (15/1) and Robusta, who break from posts three and four, respectively. Robusta surprised in the San Felipe as a sizable longshot who found himself leading in the stretch in his first try with blinkers on. While he may still be distance limited, his last try proved that he belongs in stakes company and gave him 25 Derby points. A top three finish will be necessary here, but with a stronger field and the presence of Cherokee Nation from the inside, a repeat trip may be difficult.
The late finishing Vitruvian Man has been a consistent finisher in his five tries, but has yet to compete at the stakes level and appears to be a step below the rest. Mark Glatt’s So Happy (7/2), on the other hand, returns from a third in the San Felipe where he stretched out from his seven-furlong San Vicente win over this track. Putting forth a dazzling display in that one, this colt got tied up in a quicker pace last time and couldn’t handle the added ground. A midpack trip may be necessary for So Happy to get the distance this time, but he still has to prove it against two here that outran him in the Felipe.
The outside-breaking Start the Ride (30/1) and Intrepido (7/2) are both in a tough spot here, even with twenty-three Derby points to Intrepido. The winner of Santa Anita’s American Pharoah in October, this Jeff Mullins trainee ran fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile then came back to place in the Robert B. Lewis. Intrepido’s experience over the track should be an advantage, and a top three finish may just be enough to punch his ticket to Churchill.
The Santa Anita Derby starts at 7:46 PM EST as the tenth race on Santa Anita’s Saturday card.
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