Laurel Park picks and ponderings: July 19, 2024
In which we pick the races from Laurel Park each day…
Post time: 12:25 p.m.
Carryovers:
Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 — $3,306
Jackpot Super High 5 — $1,214
Late Pick 5 — $0
Check out our other handicapping here!
RACE 1: CLAIMING $20,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/16 MILES (GRASS)
3-6-7-12
Both of my top two picks come out of the same race at this condition on June 28. #3 Maybe It’s Time (8-1) made his first start off a seven-month layoff that day and churned on well from off the pace to secure second. He ran a big race at this level three starts ago, then faded after a wide trip two starts back before going on the sidelines. He has a lot of upside, and is likely to go off at a better price than #6 Brady Bear (3-1). That rival crossed to the rail and the lead from post 12, opened up a long early lead, and held second. He’s the main speed of this field, but his late pace figures aren’t that strong, suggesting that if he gets a lot of pace pressure, he’s vulnerable. Still, you can’t discount the possibility he’ll sneak away. #7 Beyond the Pale (8-1) makes his first start since late November for Danielle Hodson, and gets some class relief after facing better rivals towards the end of last year. His running style is a bit inconsistent, but he’s capable of showing early speed and making things interesting for Brady Bear.
RACE 2: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $20,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/16 MILES
7-2-4-3
Here’s another race in which I’ll try the top two finishers of the same race; in this case, the 2nd race on June 29. #7 Luigi’s Spirit (9-2) bounced back off a dull effort at Pimlico two races back with a sharp victory, coming from off an honest pace to win going away with a brisnet figure of 92. If you take out that Pimlico line, he’s run at least an 87 seven straight times, making him the only one in the field capable of consistently running that fast. #2 Tubtisiam (8-1) chased the pace and finished second behind Luigi’s Spirit last out, and is rapidly improving form. By far his best two figures have come in his last two starts, with his two-back win coming in gate-to-wire style. He’s going to be in a prime spot to get the lead on the rail from his post. #4 Yodel E.A. Who (4-1) has faced better for most of the year, and has terrific late pace figures. He was Jamie Rodriguez’s pick between the two Jamie Ness starters.
RACE 3: CLAIMING $45,000 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 1/16 MILES (GRASS)
9-5-3-7
#9 Whispering Sea (7-2) may have been a bit outclassed in her last start against first-level rival at Delaware Park, but still made a promising move into the pace before getting outkicked by better and holding fourth. That kind of move should work against these. #5 Momma’s Lino (8-1) goes first off the claim by Keri Brion. She battled on the pace and held second going two turns last out and should be better stretching back out following a flat effort at 5 1/2 panels in her most recent. #3 Sky Victory (3-1) makes her first start since February 16 and her first start on grass. She ran well last out, battling with Momma’s Lino for the early lead and dispatching of her, before ending up second to future Weber City Miss Stakes winner Call Another Play. This one has had some strong recent workouts to get ready for this spot.
RACE 4: CLAIMING $30,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS
5-2-6-1
#5 Suga Steve (7-2) is a perfect 2-for-2 on dirt this year. He made a move into the pace last out, worked his way past the leaders, and drew off to win with a career-best 86. He looks like he’s hitting best stride at the right time. #2 Maclin (8-1) is the only one in the race to win in the 80s in his last four dirt starts. He was a bit flat last out in his first local start after shipping up from Gulfstream Park and will try to take a step forward with more experience on the surface. #6 Find Faith (6-1) has pressed the pace and hung around for a slice against these types in his last few and is likely to do the same thing today.
RACE 5: MAIDEN CLAIMING $30,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, 5 1/2 FURLONGS (GRASS)
2-10-4-8
#2 Mile High Miracle (9-2) chased loose leader Great Kisser last out and held on to win a show photo with a much-improved mark of 76. He adds blinkers for his second grass try. #10 White Series (7-2) ran a much-improved race when cut back to one turn last out, pressing the pace and holding second at Delaware Park. He should sit a similar trip today. #4 Master Munnings (5-2) went to the sidelines for two months after a respectable effort in his grass debut at Gulfstream in late March but has done good work in the mornings over the past few weeks.
RACE 6: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 6 FURLONGS
5-7-3-1
#5 Stickwiththecolors (8-5) broke her maiden in impressive fashion on debut in late February, then held her own after setting the pace in two tries at this level. She faces a soft field in her first start since 13 and is a serious threat to take them gate-to-wire. #7 Arch Street (3-1) sat a great stalking trip and drew away to break her maiden as much the best a Delaware last out, running an 82, a career-best figure by 17 points. #3 Susan’s Mule (5-2) might try to press Stickwiththecolors from her inside, and if those two end up in a duel, it could set up nicely for Arch Street.
RACE 7: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W3X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 5 1/2 FURLONGS (GRASS)
2-6-10-1A
#2 Mid Day Image (5-2) has already won twice on this track this year, including an impressive win last out where he won going away despite getting shuffled out of position early. It’s a step up in class on paper, but not that much more difficult of a field than the ones he’s been seeing. #6 Biz Biz Buzz (4-1) chased multiple stakes winner Determined Kingdom second off the layoff last out, and ended up two lengths beaten by Outlaw Kid, who came back to win at Aqueduct last out. This one faced better rivals for most of last year and held his own. #10 Jean Valjean (9-2) ran a big race in his grass debut las tout, lasting through pace pressure to go gate-to-wire at Penn National.
RACE 8: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS, 1 MILE
3-5-6-7
#3 Rainy Skies (5-2) has improved with each start, peaking at a 91 last out when third against these types a Delaware. He owns a 2-for-3 record on this track and has run well going a mile or longer. #5 Blue Kingdom (9-2) was roughed around at the start int he Star De Naskra Stakes last out and never got involved. If he runs back to his maiden win two starts back, where he won going away with an impressive 86, he’s a contender. #6 Pappy’s Revenge (7-2) raced on the pace and held well in his most recent dirt try, and his only bad recent start on this surface came on a wet track three starts ago at Oaklawn Park. Fortunately for him, he’ll get a fast surface today.
RACE 9: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $12,500, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/16 MILES (GRASS)
1A-5-10-2
#1A The King Cheek (5-2) was a nose away from winning in a triple dead heat last out, coming from off the pace and finishing just behind a pair of rivals, including #5 The Last Scip (5-2). He declined a bit in that race from the mid-80s figures he had run in his prior two races, but he’s still among the fastest horses in the race, and if he can make the front, he’ll be tough to wear down. The Last Scip is 2-for-2 on the season and looks to have taken a step forward from ages 5 to 6. We’ll see if he can keep it up in his third start off the bench. #10 Sagrada Ray (10-1) won going away after sitting a nice trip two starts back at Delaware, and should find himself in a great spot here, perched just off the pace.
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