The West Coast invaders finish out their Derby prep season in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, historically a strong prep with the most recent Derby and Triple Crown winner Justify winning here in 2018. With Baffert runners ineligible to run at Churchill this year, his two runners here cannot pick up any points from this race. The six others however, all have a chance to gain a maximum 100 points with a victory, as well as points for finishing in the top five. A relatively even field should make this race a competitive one, with the longest morning line odds at 20/1 and five horses starting below 10/1. 

Imagination is the one to catch here after his narrow San Felipe victory, and at 8/5 morning line, this Baffert trainee has a leg up on the others. Running back to his form from his last two tries puts him in the winner’s circle here, as this field may lack some of the top West Coast three-year-olds compared to years past. The only issue could be the pace, as all of the top runners have a penchant to be on the lead or right behind the leader. With what figures to be a quicker pace or at the very least a contested one, going nine furlongs near the lead might be difficult. 

The Sunland Park Derby winner Stronghold has trended up in speed figures for his five starts, and should be in a similar position to Imagination in the early going. This race could simply come down to positioning and adjustment to longer distance.

Stronghold enters with 25 Derby points already following a second in the Los Alamitos Futurity and a win in the Sunland Park Derby. He probably isn’t all that competitive with a repeat of the Sunland Derby, but going nine furlongs should be a good adjustment for this colt by Ghostzapper-Spectator, by Jimmy Creed. Sitting a bit more off the lead than he is accustomed might be a necessity here as trainer Philip D’Amato shouldn’t want him in a pace duel with Imagination and others. 

If Stronghold continues to mature, this could be the race where he takes another step from the Sunland Derby and becomes a challenger for Imagination, especially if that runner is forced to leave faster than he has in his career.

The 5/1 Tapalo has raced five times and is also trending in the right direction. Second to the impressive Jeff Ruby winner Endlessly in the El Camino Real, Tapalo enters this race having raced against a strong competitor, which should help his case here. He also picked up his only win thus far over this Santa Anita course, albeit at seven furlongs. Maybe the distance is a bit of stretch, but the ability is there, especially if Umberto Rispoli holds him off the pace.

Baffert’s other runner, Wynstock, breaks directly outside Imagination from the five post, but only has one top effort that can come close to competing with his stablemate. The Los Alamitos Futurity victory from December was his most impressive, passing a tiring Stronghold after bumping slightly in the stretch. Following that up as a non factor in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn in February will likely raise his price here, but this is one that could be a factor if the early pace doesn’t heat up as much as expected.

John Shirreffs enters the maiden Mc Vay, most recently third in the San Felipe. A distant third-place finisher to Imagination last time, this colt hasn’t finished close in back-to-back graded stakes races, he is 5/1 and would need to take advantage of a pace meltdown. 

An overall weaker Santa Anita Derby field than in past years, it appears on the surface that Imagination wins going away for his first Grade 1 win. An interesting pace scenario could muddy those waters, however, as almost every horse here has shown some speed throughout their young careers. The exclusion of Baffert horses from gaining Derby points certainly weakens the outcome of this race for Imagination or Wynstock, but if a longshot wins, they will be able to qualify for the Kentucky Derby. Even if the winner here isn’t a likely Derby victor, these colts can mature quickly, and gaining experience in a top flight race such as this will only expedite that process.

The Grade I Santa Anita Derby is the tenth race of Santa Anita’s Saturday card with a post time of 7:45 PM EDT. 

THE PICKS 

1. #3 Stronghold (5-2)

2. #2 Tapalo (5-1) 

3. #4 Imagination (8-5)

4. #7 Mc Vay (5-1) 

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