Seven of the 15 jockeys that have made at least 25 starts at Charles Town in 2024, and 13 of the 23 trainers that have made at least 10, have won more races than their odds would have predicted.

The Racing Biz analyzed the performance of each rider and trainer versus the takeout-adjusted odds on their runners. Each jockey’s and trainer’s wins were compared to their expected wins. We include only jockeys that have made at least 25 starts at Charles Town this year and trainers that have made at least 10. The wins above expectations figure for riders includes only the last 50 starts for riders with 50 or more and is prorated to 50 starts for those with fewer. The same is true of trainers, though the relevant figure is 25.

TOP OF THE TREE Three riders — Javier Rivera, Victor Rodriguez, and Fredy Peltroche — have won more than two races above what would have been expected per 50 starts. Rodrguez (52 starts) and Peltroche (56) are among the seven riders that have made more than 50 starts to date at CT.

BUT WAIT, THERE’S MORE To see the full list of riders who have made 25 or more starts at CT and their wins above expectations, visit our Handicapping page.

WIDE OPEN AFFAIR No rider won more than three races during the last racing weekend, though four accomplished that. Those were Arnaldo and Abnel Bocachica, Andres Chavez, and Peltroche.

TAKING A PERCENTAGE Among riders with at least 25 starts at the meet, Carlos Lopez leads by percentage of purse money earned. His mounts have nabbed 18.2% of available purse moneys thus far, putting him just ahead of Arnaldo Bocachica (17.7). Denis Araujo (16.1%), Marshall Mendez (14.9%), and Peltroche (14.2%) round out the top five.

GOOD THINGS IN THREES Similarly, there are three trainers with more than 2.0 wins above expectations per 25 starts. Donald Barber (4-for-10, 7.11 wins above expectations per 25 starts) and Stacey Viands (6-for-15, 6.37 wins above expectations per 25 starts) are both off to red-hot starts. Viands added two more wins this past weekend, and while Barber had no starters, he’s scheduled to have three this week. Keturah Obed-Letts, who is 2-for-11, is at 2.78 wins above expectations per 25 starts.

A RUNCO WEEKEND Jeff Runco trainees won three races from 14 starts last weekend, the most wins of any trainer locally. Runco has won with six of his last 25, 0.50 wins above expectations, and for the meet, his 1.96 wins above expectations in 43 starts puts him third behind Barber and Viands.

PERCENTAGE LEADERS Unsurprisingly, Barber (32.9%) and Viands (25.2%) have parlayed their hot starts to the year to a lead among local trainers by percentage of purse earned. Runco (21.8%) is third, followed by Ray Ginter (20.2%) and Joan Reynolds (19.8%).

BUT WAIT, THERE’S MORE To see the full list of trainers who have made 10 or more starts at CT and their wins above expectations, visit our Handicapping page.

AND FINALLY Those looking for Charles Town picks: expect them to return next week!

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