PIMLICO PICKS AND PONDERINGS: SEPTEMBER 25, 2022
In which we pick the races from Pimlico each day…
Post time: 12:40 p.m.
Carryovers: Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 — $4,554 Super High 5 — $696 Late Pick 5 — $0
Check out our other handicapping here!
RACE 1: CLAIMING $16,000 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 MILE (GRASS)
The Pimlico September stand wraps up with an 11-race card full of handicapping puzzles. We’ll do our best to solve them. #8 Foxtrot Seville (9-2) finally broke through for a maiden-breaking score four starts back, then closed well in each of her last three starts against winners. She’s run brisnet figures in the 70s in all of them, making her one of the most consistent members of the field. #15 Blame the Irish (8-1) gets some class relief in her third start against winners and has good tactical speed. Of course, from her far outside post, she runs the risk of getting caught wide. #12 Karen’s Catita (15-1) broke her maiden two starts back at Delaware Park with a decent figure of 73 and looks for a rebound off a dull race last out.
RACE 2: CLAIMING $10,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS
#9 Highland Chief (9-5) has won his last two starts with rapidly improving form. He lasted through a duel at Timonium last out and defeated Amicalola Falls, who came back to win here last Saturday. #8 Crownedcountcristo (6-1) has been dismal in his last two races but ran in the 70s consistently earlier in the year. Gets some class relief after facing foes for higher tags. #6 Pit Stop Man (6-1) has lots of speed drawn to his inside but he looks fast enough to outrun them early and clear to the rail.
- Armando R over the top to win Small StakesOnetime claimer Armando R rallied outside to prevail in Saturday’s Richard W. Small Stakes at Laurel Park for his second straight stakes win.
RACE 3: CLAIMING $40,000 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 MILE (GRASS)
#10 God is Love (4-1) made a promising move in his first start off the claim by Claudio Gonzalez, but flattened out late and got third. He’s never run worse than a 76 in four grass races. He’ll try to put it all together second time for the new barn. #3 General’s Duty (8-1) won with a from-the-clouds rally last out and may well have won two starts back if he didn’t get into trouble. He’s the only one in the field without a loss against winners. #6 Eddie the Great (6-1) raced wide throughout in his last two starts against New York-bred allowance company. He ran in the 80s twice earlier in the year and will try to find that form on different shores.
RACE 4: CLAIMING $25,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS
#8 Dialing Dixie (15-1) cleared his n/w2L condition in front-running style two races back, then came from off the pace to get second last out in a five-furlong dash. He has a chance to pull off the upset if used aggressively by Jeiron Barbosa. #10 Royal Spy (8-1) drops out of a tough Maryland-bred allowance race and has a strong closing kick. He’ll have to stay out of trouble but is a threat if he does. #5 Dream Happy (5-1) goes second off a brief layoff. He raced wide throughout at Charles Town last out but won impressively in gate-to-wire fashion two races back. He’ll be close to the pace.
RACE 5: MAIDEN CLAIMING $25,000, 2-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 6 FURLONGS
#9 Divine Romance (5-1) was one of two first-timers in the field last out, and ran the better race. She was no match for a runaway loose leader, but outkicked the rest and finished a solid second. #5 Genieinabridle (9-2) improved sharply in her second career start last out, when she ran a 75 in the Keswick Stakes at Colonial Downs. Jerry Robb sent out a 2-year-old winner yesterday and looks for another one today. #8 Angelofcanterbury (8-1) was well-respected on debut at Delaware, but faded after showing speed. She held on for third and can improve on this track, which has generally been playing to speed.
RACE 6: CLAIMING $16,000 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 MILE (GRASS)
#9 Watchnthegirlsgoby (8-1) ran a career-top figure of 74 in his last start, when he rated off a very slow pace and had to check. The same trouble might befall him here as well, but he’s lightly-raced and is taking a slight drop in class from the $25,000 level. #8 El Segundo (15-1) showed speed and faded on grass at Saratoga a few starts. He’s making his first start for the Jimmy Toner barn and could pull off the upset with the right trip. #7 Mentalist (10-1) was pressed all the way on the lead in his most recent at Colonial and held on to finish third. He’s been consistent on this surface this year and gets a slight weight break, as he’s in for a lower claiming tag than most of these.
- Nick Sanna’s long journey to the winner’s circleLong before he owned horses, Nick Sanna had a job sweeping up after the races at Delaware Park. It’s been quite a journey.
RACE 7: CLAIMING $8,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS
The late pick 5 begins here. #5 Bernie’s on Fire (3-1) drops in class after facing a fairly tough starter allowance field last out. Without much speed drawn to his inside, he should be able to work out a great trip on the lead and the rail. #1 Oxide (15-1) won at this level in late January with a great figure of 86. He showed little in his first start off the layoff at Timonium last out, but should improve with a race under his belt and a return to the big track. #9 Royal Crusader (8-1) has tried n/w1x company for a while now, without much success. He closed mildly against starter optional claiming types last out, and now continues a much-needed drop down the class ladder. He’ll be running on late.
RACE 8: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, MD-BRED/SIRED, 6 FURLONGS
#9 Betcha By Golly (10-1) cruised to win a starter allowance contest gate-to-wire last out and has run in the 80s in each of her last three sprint starts. #8 Summer Odds (6-1) has been close against similar or better lately, going off at big odds every time. She’ll rate in mid-pack and can close at a good number. #7 Moonsafe (8-1) has hit the superfecta in her last six start at this level, with extremely consistent figures. She’s run in the upper-70s in five of those six races, and ran a career-best mark of 90 three races back. She’ll be on or near the pace and will be involved late as long as she runs her race, which is almost a given.
RACE 9: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/16 MILES (GRASS)
#7 Samui Sunset (9-2) has found his best self as a 5-year-old, running at least an 85 in four consecutive races. He beat a starter allowance field going away at Colonial two starts back and chased for second last out. A win here would establish him as a serious contender for the Maryland Million Turf Starter. #5 Wish Me Home (6-1) didn’t do much after running near a fast pace at Saratoga last out, but ran an 87 in a determined victory over Samui Sunset two races ago. Look for him to stalk and pounce. Stakes-placed in Florida earlier this year, #8 Bob Marco (6-1) battled well in the stretch last out to get third in his first local appearance. He ran an 86 that day, marking the third consecutive race in which he’s improved his figure.
RACE 10: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/16 MILES
#6 Pharaoh’s Triumph (6-1) almost wired a n/w1x field last out in a much-improved race from his two recent dismal grass performance. If the track is once again speed-favoring, he moves up big-time. #7 Our Lucky Man (2-1) will hope for a more fair track. He’s been pounding on the door at this level, having been beaten less than four lengths in five consecutive races between Monmouth Park and Penn National. He likes to come from off the pace and will take advantage if Pharaoh’s Triumph can’t last. #1 Jardani (8-1) has been a much-improved horse since switching to dirt, with two impressive wins in his last three starts. He went gate-to-wire through relatively easy fractions at Delaware last out but has also shown the ability to come from off the pace.
RACE 11: CLAIMING $25,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 5 FURLONGS (GRASS)
Time to bring it home for the season. #3 Shelly Island (7-2) drops from the n/w1x level after showing much more early speed than usual last out. He’s run in the mid/upper-70s consistently all year. We’ll see if Jevian Toledo decides to keep him close to the lead or not. #5 Zip Line to Heaven (7-2) is another very consistent mid-70s type who was third against similar last at Colonial after a wide trip. He’s at least an exotics contender if he runs his usual race. #8 Boss is a Pal (6-1) gets back to the lawn after getting washed off last out and could prove tough to catch on the lead.
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