Laurel Park picks and ponderings November 4, 2021

by John Piassek | Nov 4, 2021 | Breaking, Handicapping

Horses round the turn at Laurel Park. Photo: Allison Janezic.

In which we pick the races from Laurel Park each day…

Post time: 12:25 p.m.

Carryovers: Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 — $3,001 Super High 5 — $0 Late Pick 5 — $0

ANALYSIS

RACE 1: CLAIMING $16,000 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 6 FURLONGS (GRASS)

9-3-2-13 (DIRT: 12-4-2-9)
The first card of November features nine races, three of which are scheduled for the grass. #9 Made to Hustle (7/2) hasn’t run a brisnet figure worse than 72 in two grass starts, and broke her maiden in her last try on this surface at Penn National. She has blazing early speed and will try to take them gate-to-wire. #3 Torch Carrier (5/1) came from way downtown to break her maiden on debut here last out. She was one of just two first-time starters in that race, but still rallied and got the job done. #2 Salamina (8/1) broke her maiden with a big rally in her first start off a long layoff two back. She made only mild ground after checking last out, and will try to improve third off the layoff.

RACE 2: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $25,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS

4-2-1-3

#4 Easy Day (1/1) had a great Delaware Park season, with four victories. He ran between an 87 and a 91 in all of his dirt starts at the meet, a standard that none of the others can meet consistently. His trainer, Richard Sillaman is 18% first off the claim. #2 D’Rapper (5/2) also ships in from Delaware, and drops in class for the Jamie Ness/Jaime Rodriguez dynamic duo. He likes to come from far out of it, which usually puts him at a disadvantage. In a field like this, he has a great chance of outkicking the others except Easy Day. #1 Money Ride (5/1) was disappointing in his first start off the claim for Claudio Gonzalez. He ran in the 90s consistently earlier in the year, looks for a rebound here.

RACE 3: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, 6 FURLONGS

3-7-5-2
#3 Johnny Swish (3/1) was visually more impressive second time out than on debut, but his figure declined a bit to a 67. He ran in the upper 60s both times, which are both good enough to beat almost everyone in the field. The one exception is #7 Askin for a Baskin (4/5) ships down from New York for Jeremiah Englehart, who was 0-for-4 last week with his Laurel invaders. All of those horses went off at less than 6/1. This horse has run in the 80s consistently in New York this year. If he runs his race, he’ll be very tough. I just don’t know if I can trust him at very low odds. #5 Hello Amigo (8/1), the only non-3-year-old in the race, has hit the board in nine of eighteen lifetime, and could shake up the exotics at a price.

ANALYSIS

RACE 4: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, MD-BRED, 6 FURLONGS

5-4-3-6
We’ve got another big favorite here. #5 He’s a Shooter (1/1) has rapidly climbed through his conditions, with three consecutive wins by a combined 28 1/2 lengths coming in to today. He’s run an 89 and a 91 in two starts here this meet; a repeat of those races makes him likely to win this race. #4 Maximus Midani (7/2) surged to get second, beaten less than a length, in his first start off a long layoff last out. He just missed his lifetime mark in that race, with an 83. Ben Perkins Jr is a very solid 20% second off the bench. #3 The Wolfman (5/2) makes his first start for May 14 for Phil Schoenthal. He ran some big numbers here over the fall and winter, but might need a race first off the bench.

RACE 5 – ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W2X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/8 MILES (GRASS)

1-8-5-6 (DIRT: 12-1-4-3)
Plenty of win chances in today’s feature. #1 You Must Chill (5/1), won the Alphabet Soup Handicap against Pennsylvania-breds on Pennsylvania Derby day. He flattened out to finish third against a tough Claiming Crown qualifying race last out, behind #8 English Tavern (5/1). That rival was second that day, coming from far behind and getting caught in traffic in the stretch. He might not have enough early speed to be a top win contender, but he’s rallied to get into the top three in his last six starts. #5 Zarkallani (3/1) invades from New York for Christophe Clement. He’s run at least an 87 in each of his two grass races in the United States, and drops from this condition in New York, which is generally significantly tougher.
RACE 6: CLAIMING $5,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 6 FURLONGS
7-3-6-4
#7 Mortal Storm (5/2) ran in the 80s at Delaware Park all meet long. Cuts back in distance and drops in class here. Her early tactical speed should play well going six furlongs, based on her current form. #3 Cougar Vision (6/1) was dismal at Parx last out, but runs in the 70s steadily in Maryland. She made her last start on September 15; trainer Dale Bennett is 36% off a 46-90 day break. #6 Family Fortune (4/1) improved to a 73 first off a two-month layoff last out with a mild fifth-place finish. She crossed the wire first twice against fairly similar horses at Pimlico this year.

ANALYSIS

RACE 7: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W1X), 2-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 5 1/2 FURLONGS

5-6-1-2
I’ll tale a shot with this Englehart trainee, as she’s likely to offer better value and is not a professional maiden. #5 Laoban’s Legacy (3/1) crushed a New York-bred maiden field by more than seven lengths on debut. She was a struggling third in the Seeking the Ante Stakes last out, but has had more than two months off since then and should fire a big one. #6 Click to Confirm (7/2) is a perfect 2-for-2 lifetime, having improved several points last out in a dominant 5 1/2 length win here last out. She has great tactical speed that has served her well in her first two races. #1 Lanfrankophile (9/2) has finished second at this level in each of her last two starts. Last out, she briefly led and chased Beneath the Stars home in the stretch. That rival is also back in action here.
RACE 8: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 2-YEAR-OLDS, 1 1/16 MILES
5-1-2-6
#5 Bold Leader (2/1) ran a career-best figure of 78 over this track two races back. He may have been in a bit over his head against stakes company at Delaware last out, now faces a softer field. #1 Mr. Mox (9/5) was the very slight favorite in the Maryland Million Nursery last out, and was hung wide throughout and faded. When he’s allowed to do his own thing on the front end, he usually wins. #2 Mr Jefferson (4/1) broke his maiden impressively in his only dirt start at Colonial Downs, now stretches out on dirt for the first time. Drops from a stakes try on grass last out.
RACE 9: CLAIMING $16,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 5 1/2 FURLONGS (GRASS)

16-1-13-5 (DIRT: 9-6-8-4)
#16 Bam Bam Bleu (4/1) ran figures in the 90s on grass way back when, and earned a 75 last out in his second start off a 2+-year layoff. That mark is still good enough to win this race. #1 Shelly Island (3/1) keeps pounding on the door at this level, with three straight runner-up finishes. He has a decent late kick, but it hasn’t yet been good enough to win against these. We’ll see if that changes today. #13 Bloodprof (6/1) won a n/w2L race last out with a figure of 78, just missing his career-best mark. He’ll also be roaring from behind, and has not lost at this condition.