Laurel Park picks and ponderings September 16, 2021

by | Sep 16, 2021 | Breaking, Handicapping

Horses round the turn at Laurel Park. Photo: Allison Janezic.

In which we pick the races from Laurel Park each day…

Post time: 12:40 p.m.

Carryovers: Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 — $4,259 Super High 5 — $0 Late Pick 5 — $9,462

 

ANALYSIS

RACE 1: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES AND MARES 1 1/16 MILES

  • 5-6-3-1
  • The Laurel meet is in full swing. with a 10-race card on tap today. #5 My Maggie Moo (8/5) ran a much-improved race in her last dirt start, earning a brisnet figure of 85 in a second-place finish. She’s mostly raced on grass this year without a ton of success, although she is in improving form. #6 Like Nowhere Else (5/2) is the lone debuter in a field that is not very inspiring. Trainer Arnaud Delacour is a respectable 17% with horses debuting at a distance of a mile or longer. Her recent workouts at Fair Hill have been sharp, including a bullet drill last Thursday. #3 Fortes (7/2) made a strong rally to get fifth in her grass debut at Colonial Downs, her second start overall. Now switches back to dirt and stretches out around two turns. Looks to build on that promising performance. 

RACE 2: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 5 1/2 FURLONGS (GRASS)

2-9-8-3 (DIRT: 6-7-9-10)

 #2 Polished Gal (7/2) has been steadily rounding into form since returning from a long layoff in early July. She’s also slowly moving up the class ladder, having beaten an open claiming field at Pimlico two races back and just missing at this level last out. She has great late pace figures and has shown aptitude over this track. #9 Behind the Couch (4/1) made her grass debut earlier in the year at Pimlico, and surged wide to get second behind Beantown Baby. That one came back to win against better at Delaware Park and was stakes-placed at Colonial. Behind the Couch has good late speed but has struggled to cross the wire first in her career. May be a better exotics candidate. #8 Chromeplated Heart (8/1) races for just the fourth time, and broke her maiden at first asking against maiden claimers earlier in the year. She rated off the pace and held in there until late in her first start at this level last out. 

 

RACE 3: CLAIMING $12,500, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS

  • 4-1-2-5
  • #4 On the Lam (3/1) returned from a very long layoff in early July at Charles Town, and drew off impressively to win by two lengths. Looks for a rebound after a bad break doomed him last out at Timonium. Although this is a class drop on paper, this is probably a similar field to the one he beat at Charles Town. #1 New Frontier (8/5) ran back-to-back figures of 88 earlier in the year at Pimlico, then got caught wide last out at Charles Town and tired. Should have a much more favorable trip here. #2 Kingston Pike (3/1) goes first off the claim for Mario Serey, who hits at 18% with that angle. He chased down a loose leader to win here on opening day, now gets the class test after that win against conditioned claimers. 

ANALYSIS

RACE 4: CLAIMING $12,500, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/16 MILES (GRASS)

  • 13-11-4-7 (DIRT: 4-7-8-10)
  • #13 D’Craziness (5/2) will need to draw off the also-eligible list to race, but is a serious threat if he does. He surged to win against similar at Delaware two races back, with a figure of 86. Last out, he closed to finish second, and was the only one in the race who made up serious ground. #11 Makes Mo Cents (5/1) and #4 Lucky Ramsey (4/1) are both closers who have finished close to each other in their last few races. Makes Mo Cents made a strong wide rally to get up for second at Colonial last out, earning a career-best figure of 85. He outkicked Lucky Ramsey in that race, turning the tables from his race three starts back, when Lucky Ramsey surged to victory against similar. 

RACE 5 – MAIDEN CLAIMING $16,000, 2-YEAR-OLDS, 5 1/2 FURLONGS

  • 2-1-3-4
  • #2 Don’tcrossfuzzy (7/2) has shown speed and faded in his last two starts, but he held on better in his second start than in his debut, losing by just 5 1/2 lengths and hanging on until the last eighth. If he keeps moving forward, he’s a threat to wire them. #1 Bet on Blitz (5/1) is a first-timer for Anthony Farrior, who is 24% with his debuters. A $52,000 purchase last year, he catches a fairly soft field on debut. The board will tell the story. #3 Scaredy Cat (3/1), is a Brittany Russell first-timer, and as such automatically merits respect. With Sheldon Russell on the sidelines, Kevin Gomez gets the mount. 

RACE 6: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT, 2-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 1 MILE (GRASS)

  • 11-6-8-12 (DIRT: 4-3-9-10)
  • The late pick 5, with a carryover of $9,462, begins here. #11 She’s Like Thunder (9/2) makes her fourth career start here. Her prior three have all come on grass. She stretched out to a route for the first time, and just missed second in a blanket finish. She’s proven she can handle the distance, and looks to move forward off that race. #6 Ten Twenty One (8/1) stretches out for the first time for Phil Schoenthal, who is 16% first time at a route. She got bet on debut at Colonial, where she showed speed and faded. The price should be right. #8 Wasser (5/1) is a firster for Delacour, with decent workouts and connections that usually fire with grass horses. 

ANALYSIS

RACE 7: CLAIMING $5,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS

  • 4-5-12-9
  • This is going to be a separator race in the pick 5. If you can get through this leg, you’re in good shape. #4 Keepyourguardup (9/2) went through his conditions quickly over the summer, rattling off three straight wins. He ran a decent figure last out at Delaware, although the performance was visually unimpressive. He’s steadily run figures in the upper 70s, and is very live if he can keep that up. #5 Golazo (6/1) cuts back in distance and has good tactical speed. He’s improved his figure in four consecutive races, peaking at a 77 last out. #12 Decorated (4/1) got action in his first start off a long layoff last out, but checked and lost ground. He ran figures as high as 87 last year, and was running in the 70s before going on the shelf. Should improve second off the layoff. 
  • RACE 8: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, MD-BRED, 1 1/16 MILES (GRASS)
  • 9-5-1-7 (DIRT: 6-2-7-11)
  • #9 Beach Traffic (6/1) won two in a row at Monmouth Park with strong off-the-pace rallies. Last out, he made what looked like a promising move starter handicap race, but flattened out. Cuts back from 1 1/8 miles to a distance that he won twice at this year. #5 My Boy Paddy (4/1) drops in class after facing a tough n/w2x field in his last grass race. Impressively defeated a n/w1x field at Penn National two grass races back, and improved his figure last out despite his visually dull race. #1 Broker’s Reward (5/2) has shown early speed in the past, and would be well-served to use it from the inside post. 
  • RACE 9: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W2X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 6 FURLONGS
  • 2-6-3-4
  • #2 Margie’s Heaven (9/5) has won four in a row, and has barely trailed in any of those wins. She’s facing tougher than she’s seen recently, but has early speed and a good draw, which will make her tough to catch. By contrast, #6 Tara’s Talent (3/1) is a deep closer who flew for second against similar types in her last start. Even if Margie’s Heaven gets away, this one can outkick the rest and round out the exacta. #3 Mischiefs Model (4/1) showed lots of guts in victory at Pimlico two races back, but struggled over the Timonium bullring last out. Getting back to the big track might help. 

RACE 10: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $32,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 5 1/2 FURLONGS (GRASS)

  • 5-9-1-2 (DIRT: 6-10-8-9)
  • #5 Defy Expectations (2/1) comes back to Maryland after some tries against n/w2L types in New York. She looked like she might hold on in her last start, but was swamped in the last eighth. She’ll go to the front here and try and last as long as she can. #9 Crystalology (3/1) broke her maiden with a great stalking trip at Pimlico in May. Tries grass for the first time against winners and races for the first time since June 11. Recent workouts have been sharp. #1 Castilleja (6/1) looks to move forward off a promising second outing on grass, when she rallied wide and got second. 

 

 

 

 

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About The Author

John Piassek

John Piassek has written about mid-Atlantic racing for The Racing Biz, Danonymous Racing, and his current website, the Daily Gallop. He graduated from Loyola University Maryland in 2018 with a degree in marketing, and is a member of the inaugural Maryland Thoroughbred Career Program class of 2017. Find John on twitter: @theyreoff.

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