Spa selections 2021: Saratoga picks September 4

by | Sep 3, 2021 | Breaking, Handicapping

Ginger N Rye

Ginger N Rye won the 2017 Smart N Fancy Stakes at Saratoga. Photo by Chelsea Durand/NYRA.

by Joseph Aiello

In Spa Selections, Saratoga on-site correspondent Joseph Aiello provides Saratoga picks for a handful of key races at Saratoga, including all of the exciting stakes action!

Race 8 – Grade III Saranac Stakes

1. #5 Founder (4-1) – The other Chad Brown entry closed into an honest pace last time and could benefit from a similar set up if Like the King and Never Surprised press each other early

2. #1 Public Sector (7-5) – Showed his talent last time in the Grade II Hall of Fame, and is the most likely winner here for Chad Brown with the right trip

3. #4 Never Surprised (8-5) – Will be dangerous here with Saez who will likely try to go wire to wire, and should improve off of last race with a better break

Race 9 – Alw 90000n1x

1. #7 Freedom Machine (8-1) – This filly by English Channel didn’t have her best effort last time, but only lost by five lengths and showed enough two back to have a chance here

2. #1A Cara’s Dreamer (3-1) – Has had two solid efforts in a row this summer, but still struggles to win and might not be the best value with this post

3. #10 English Breeze (5-2) – Franco and Donk haven’t won at a high clip together, plus get a tough post here, but this filly has run against stronger fields than this

Race 10 – Alw 103000n1x

1. #3 Ducale (5-2) – Might be the toughest race of the day, which likely means that this morning line favorite will end up winning, but needs to improve off of last start

2. #6 Olympiad (8-1) – This colt by Speightstown comes off a full year layoff for Mott, but gets lasix for the first time and was bet to favorite both times last year at the Spa

3. #8 Baby Yoda (6-1) – Tuggle is another good longshot play, but this gelding seems to be improving at the right time, with a recent blistering four furlong work and impressive win last time

Race 11 – Grade I Flower Bowl Stakes

1. #6 Great Island (4-1) – This mare will need to prove that she can handle the added distance, but might be good value given the connections and comes off a grade III win

2. #3 War Like Goddess (4-5) – If this filly runs her race here, she wins, especially with a repeat of last race where she closed from ten lengths out

3. #4 My Sister Nat (5-1) – Couldn’t catch War Like Goddess last time and will need some help to win here, but Jose Ortiz and Chad Brown on these turf routes is a good combo

Race 12 – Grade I Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes

1. #4 Happy Saver (9-5) – Has the potential to sit the best trip off of Forza Di Oro and Max Player if both go, and should bounce back after losing his first race in the slop last time

2. #5 Night Ops (5-1) – Four second place finishes in a row, but this Brad Cox trainee is still live here especially if the pace heats up and Manny Franco has him sitting in fourth early

3. #1 Forza Di Oro (8-5) – Looks like this colt is in the best form of his career, but stretches out in distance here and steps up in class so will need a slower pace to win


About The Author

Joseph Aiello

Joseph Aiello, III, a graduate of Colgate University, is a lifelong racing fan and frequent Saratoga visitor, where he avidly hones his handicapping skills.

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