Timonium picks and ponderings September 4, 2021

by John Piassek | Sep 4, 2021 | Breaking, Handicapping

Horses approach the gate at Timonium. Photo: The Racing Biz

In which we pick the races from Timonium each day…

Post time: 12:40 p.m.

Carryovers: Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 — $321 Super High 5 — $813 Late Pick 5 — $0

ANALYSIS

RACE 1: MAIDEN CLAIMING $25,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, 1 MILE

6-5-4-2
#6 He’s a Shooter (7/5) earned a giant brisnet figure of 80 in his last dirt start, finishing third, beaten 2 1/2 lengths, after prompting the pace. Goes second off the layoff for Claudio Gonzalez. #5 Let Us Make Gold (4/1) chased an odds-on favorite around the track at Pimlico last out, and finished a well-beaten second. Closed well to just miss two races back. Has a big chance with a more honest pace. #4 Super Houdini (9/5) has collected plenty of checks recently, but the 0-for-16 career mark is not inspiring. A better underneath candidate.

RACE 2: CLAIMING $5,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 1/2 FURLONGS

6-2-4-5

#6 Federale (5/2) earned a big figure of 92 when winning in a gate-to-wire performance at Pimlico last out. That’s the best last-out figure in the field by five points. It’s a bit of an outlier effort compared to his other recent races, but he’s consistently run in the mid-70s in the past, which makes him a contender here. #2 Stroll Smokin (9/5) races second off the claim for Dale Bennett, who is 7-for-14 in recent times with that angle. He hasn’t shown as much of his customary early speed in his last two starts, but if he finds it here, he’s dangerous. #4 Tom Terrific (5/2) dueled and drew off three races back, and has shown lots of fight in all of his recent starts.

RACE 3: CLAIMING $5,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 1/2 FURLONGS

7-9-4-5
#7 Self Awareness (8/5) is very fast early on, having gone gate-to-wire in two of his last five races. There’s some horses with speed to his inside, but he’s faster than them and classy enough to withstand any potential challenges. #9 G Daddy (8/1) may press him on the outside for the dangerous Kevin Patterson barn. He’s taking a big drop in class after a dull effort at Mountaineer last out, but raced well at Parx earlier in the year for Jamie Ness and Joseph Taylor. It took a while for #4 Amen Corner (9/2) to round into his best form this year, but he’s improved his figure four straight times and has good closing speed.

ANALYSIS

RACE 4: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $25,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 6 1/2 FURLONGS

2-5-6-1
#2 Le Weekend (1/1) has won her last three starts, at three different tracks, while being on or near the pace every time. Should take them all the way around here as well. #5 Ran Char (7/2) has won three of her last four against similar, and will likely try to prompt Le Weekend on the pace. #6 Phantom Shot (9/2) has figures that are a cut below those of the top two, but has good closing speed and a win over the track.

RACE 5 – MAIDEN CLAIMING $40,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES AND MARES, 4 FURLONGS

4-6-7-5
#4 Mattitude (8/5) faced a very tough dueling partner in her debut: graded stakes-placed filly Frosteria. She couldn’t outkick that rival, who finished second, but she nevertheless held well and lost by just 1 1/2 lengths. I don’t think she’ll have to deal with anyone that tough here. #6 Peace Out (8/1) has slowly improved in her three career starts, now adds blinkers and Angel Cruz. A serious threat for underneath. #7 Above the Limit (7/5) showed blazing speed at Delaware Park last out and faded. That kind of speed could play very well in this kind of race.

RACE 6: CLAIMING $16,000 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 4 FURLONGS

1-4-3-6
#1 Little Bold Bandit (4/1) switches back to dirt for Jerry Robb, who is 29% with horses going from grass to dirt. He went gate-to-wire at Charles Town at 4 1/2 furlongs in May; these are similar circumstances. #4 Forced (7/5) was claimed for $10,000 out of his last start by Kieron Magee. He was the odds-on choice last out in what looked like a suspicious class drop, and led most of the way before getting caught. He stays with n/w2L horses here, and while he’s got dangerous early speed, I don’t know if I can take a low price on him again. #3 One More Factor (5/1) is the only one in the race who has not lost against winners, having crushed a maiden claiming field at Charles Town last out.

ANALYSIS

RACE 7: MAIDEN CLAIMING $25,000, 2-YEAR-OLDS, 6 1/2 FURLONGS

5-6-3-2
Robb has another serious contender here, as #5 All For Love (9/5) improved sharply second time out, closing with a wide rally to get second. I wish he had some more early speed, but he still looms a threat. #6 American Playboy (7/2) has been working well in Maryland and West Virginia in preparation for his debut for Anthony Farrior. Wouldn’t be surprising to see Arnaldo Bocachica send this one to the lead. #3 Summer Ash (5/2) keeps dropping down the class ladder for Claudio Gonzalez. He improved a bit second time out and hopefully will finally break cleanly.
RACE 8: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W1X), 2-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 6 1/2 FURLONGS

1-2-9-4
#1 American Bound (9/2) broke her maiden impressively at Keeneland in April, but showed little in two starts against stakes company. Finds a more friendly field here, in her first race since early June. Recent workouts for new trainer Marion Cuttino have been very impressive. #2 Toy Tiger (5/1) cruised on the front end to break her maiden in style at Charles Town last out for Farrior and Bocachica. She’ll likely be used early on. #9 Lanfrankophile (6/1) switches back to dirt after a try on grass. She broke her maiden on dirt gate-to-wire two back. It was an impressive performance, as she set fast fractions and still held on.
RACE 9: CLAIMING $5,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 6 1/2 FURLONGS

3-2-8-5
#3 Sprit or Sprite (4/1) earned a career-best figure of 73 in her last start, when finishing third in her first start at the level. She has a good stalking style that will serve her will both here and going forward. #2 Congress Hall (7/2) has finished second in her last three races, and her grinding closing ability means that she’s likely to be a perpetual “close but no cigar” type. #8 Golden Lassie (5/2) was well-bet against similar last out, but unseated the jockey at the start. That denied her a chance at winning three in a row. That line might spook some bettors, but she’s still very live. Will likely pour on the pressure from the outside.