With the 2026 Belmont Stakes at hand, we have compiled a horse-by-horse analysis that also includes key prep race videos.

Who does our ‘capper like, and why? Read on to find out. And how about you — who do you like?

Click on each of the key race lines to pop up a video of that race.

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1. Vitruvian Man (30-1) 

• Color / Sex: Bay Colt
• Bred / By: Kentucky / Glenn Sorgenstein WC Racing Inc.
• Sire – Dam (Damsire): Vino Rosso – Caradini, by Bernardini
• Starts-Wins-Places-Shows / Earnings: 6-1-1-2 / $142,345
• Jockey / Trainer: Antonio Fresu / Doug O’Neill
• Owner: Glenn Sorgenstein WC Racing Inc.

This bay colt had a mostly unspectacular beginning to his career, breaking his maiden in October at Keeneland before hitting the board in two allowance tries. Doug O’Neill then entered him in the Santa Anita Derby, where he finished a distant third despite his long 47/1 odds. Coming off the bench from that try, his speed figures remain well below this field with a need for major improvement to compete. Much like Ottinho, his stakes effort ended in an uncompetitive finish even while hitting the board, which leaves him in a tough spot here against better company. Vitruvian Man should be positioned mid-pack but enters as a major longshot in this spot. 

Key Races

• 4/4/2026 | Santa Anita Derby | 9f | 149.01 | Finish: 3 | Field: 7

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2. Powershift (12-1) 

• Color / Sex: Dark Bay or Brown Colt
• Bred / By: Kentucky / Liberty Road Stables
• Sire – Dam (Damsire): Constitution – Free Flying Soul, by Quiet American
• Starts-Wins-Places-Shows / Earnings: 3-1-1-0 / $81,896
• Jockey / Trainer: Luis Saez / Todd Pletcher
• Owner: Repole Stable

With just three starts under his belt, Powershift most recently broke his maiden on Derby day at Churchill Downs. Going a mile and a sixteenth in that one, this colt stalked the lead and won comfortably after finishing sixth in the Tampa Bay Derby the race prior. With the late-finishing Renegade from the same barn, Powershift may be sent to the lead here to give his stablemate a target, while also having the potential to take advantage if others are more passive. Purchased for half a million as a yearling, this colt finally flashed his upside but takes a massive step up in class here and would need an improvement in form to have any winning chances. Even with a tactical advantage here, a career best effort is needed, and this may be a tough spot even if he should have no issues with the added ground. 

Key Races

• 5/2/2026 | Maiden (Churchill Downs) | 8.5f | 141.86 | Finish: 1 | Field: 8

• 3/7/2026 | Tampa Bay Derby | 8.5f | 143.23 | Finish: 6 | Field: 9

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3. Chief Wallabee (3-1)

• Color / Sex: Bay Colt
• Bred / By: Kentucky / Mike Ball & Katherine Ball
• Sire – Dam (Damsire): Constitution – A La Lucie, by Medaglia d’Oro
• Starts-Wins-Places-Shows / Earnings: 4-1-1-1 / $466,600
• Jockey / Trainer: Junior Alvarado / William Mott
• Owner: Michael and Katherine G. Ball 

After stepping up into the Fountain of Youth following a debut maiden win, Chief Wallabee was bested twice by Commandment on the Gulfstream points circuit but still easily reached the Churchill gate last month. Taking advantage of the pace coming from off the lead, Chief Wallabee made a nice late move into fourth after some traffic issues in the stretch. He should be positioned mid-pack here and is one that should continue to improve at this distance with his bloodlines. Still lightly raced with just three tries entering the Derby, this Mott trainee was one that may have just needed more experience and enters here with some untapped upside in an evenly matched field. Any price above 5/1 would be well worth a win bet as the connections from last year’s Belmont winner Sovereignty look to make it two in a row with this colt who could get a good trip in this modestly sized field.

Key Races

• 5/2/2026 | Kentucky Derby | 10f | 202.27 | Finish: 4 | Field: 18

• 3/28/2026 | Florida Derby | 9f | 149.99 | Finish: 3 | Field: 6

• 2/28/2026 | Fountain of Youth S. | 8.5f | 143.33 | Finish: 2 | Field: 9

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4. Renegade (2-1)

• Color / Sex: Bay Colt
• Bred / By: Kentucky / Robert Low and Lawana Low
• Sire – Dam (Damsire): Into Mischief – Spice Is Nice, by Curlin
• Starts-Wins-Places-Shows / Earnings: 6-2-3-1 / $2,031,500
• Jockey / Trainer: Irad Ortiz Jr. / Todd Pletcher
• Owner: Repole Stable, Robert E. and Lawana L. Low

With two convincing wins in the Sam F. Davis and Arkansas Derby, Renegade entered the Kentucky Derby as a top contender, eventually going off as the second choice on the board. With a set up that favored deep closers, Renegade charged late with Golden Tempo, only to be bested in the final sixteenth where he succumbed to second. His overall resume may still be better than Golden Tempo, but a late-running style puts him at a disadvantage in this field of nine, where the pace may be more moderate. Returning jockey Irad Ortiz may have this colt a bit closer to the leaders this time around given field size and likely pace dynamics, though he should still be in the back third of the field through the first half. Stablemate Powershift figures to leave early to give Renegade a target to aim at, and his consistent closing kick should at least put him in the mix late to hit the board as he showed no issues with this distance in Kentucky.

Key Races

• 5/2/2026 | Kentucky Derby | 10f | 202.27 | Finish: 2 | Field: 18

• 3/28/2026 | Arkansas Derby | 9f | 149.7 | Finish: 1 | Field: 8

• 2/7/2026 | Sam F. Davis S. | 8.5f | 143.54 | Finish: 1 | Field: 9

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5. Ottinho (20-1)

• Color / Sex: Bay Colt
• Bred / By: Kentucky / Three Chimneys Farm LLC
• Sire – Dam (Damsire): Quality Road – Quiet Giant, by Giant’s Causeway
• Starts-Wins-Places-Shows / Earnings: 4-1-1-2 / $324,700
• Jockey / Trainer: Dylan Davis / Chad Brown
• Owner: Three Chimneys Farm, LLC (Goncalo B. Torrealba)

Ottinho broke his maiden second time out at Aqueduct and finished a distant third in the Withers Stakes in his next try. Picking up Derby points in that one, he once again finished over ten lengths behind the winner in the Blue Grass when second by 11 to Further Ado. Despite qualifying for Churchill, this Chad Brown trainee skipped the Derby and enters here as a sizable longshot. While he did grab the early lead in his lone victory, Ottinho doesn’t possess a major speed advantage over this group and would need to show considerable improvement to finish in the top four. With Growth Equity being the more likely from the Chad Brown barn to be forwardly placed, this colt may sit mid-pack with Emerging Market rather than push his stablemate out to quicker fractions. At the moment, this colt is below the top runners in speed figures and strong performances at the stakes level. 

Key Races

• 4/4/2026 | Blue Grass S. | 9f | 149.58 | Finish: 2 | Field: 7

• 2/6/2026 | Withers S. | 9f | 151.68 | Finish: 3 | Field: 7

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6. Growth Equity (12-1)

• Color / Sex: Bay Colt
• Bred / By: Kentucky / Stone Farm
• Sire – Dam (Damsire): Nyquist – My Dear Venezuela, by Wildcat Heir
• Starts-Wins-Places-Shows / Earnings: 4-2-2-0 / $187,600
• Jockey / Trainer: Manny Franco / Chad Brown
• Owner: Klaravich Stables, Inc.

A later bloomer than most here, Growth Equity took three tries to finally break his maiden in late March, only to be entered in the Grade 3 Peter Pan at Aqueduct a month and a half later. With just a five-horse field there, this “other” Klaravich colt was able to put away the competition in the stretch and clearly had more left in the tank at a mile and an eighth. Even with his quick and steady improvement, Growth Equity would still need to take another step forward to have any winning chances against a field that is more proven at the graded stakes level. His stalking running style could give him a tactical advantage here, but the fractions in the Peter Pan were modest and faster competition may make a forwardly placed trip more difficult. Sitting on slower fractions in a field where many prefer to finish from off the pace may be Growth Equity’s best chance to pull an upset, but the step up in class still remains a challenge here. 

Key Races

• 5/9/2026 | Peter Pan S. | 9f | 150.25 | Finish: 1 | Field: 5

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7. Commandment (6-1)

• Color / Sex: Bay Colt
• Bred / By: Kentucky / Lee Pokoik
• Sire – Dam (Damsire): Into Mischief – Sippican Harbor, by Orb
• Starts-Wins-Places-Shows / Earnings: 6-4-0-0 / $1,017,339
• Jockey / Trainer: John Velazquez / Brad Cox
• Owner: Wathnan Racing

After finishing fourth in his debut, Commandment then ripped off four straight wins with the last two in Gulfstream points races. Coming off a Florida Derby victory, this Brad Cox trainee had high expectations in the Kentucky Derby but was bumped in the stretch by Ocelli as he was making a late run that may have put him in the top five and had to settle for seventh. This spot may answer the question of whether he simply got a tough trip in the Derby or was just a slight step below the top finishers that day. With multiple graded wins under his belt including two finishes ahead of Chief Wallabee, Commandment has shown that he is more than capable of winning at this level and should be a bit closer to the leaders here than the deeper closers who bested him in Kentucky. With this smaller field and a lack of a true pace setter, that slightly more forward trip could be enough for this colt to best Chief Wallabee and Renegade among others this time, as a cleaner trip could be all he needs to get back to his best here. 

Key Races

• 5/2/2026 | Kentucky Derby | 10f | 202.27 | Finish: 7 | Field: 18

• 3/28/2026 | Florida Derby | 9f | 149.99 | Finish: 1 | Field: 6

• 2/28/2026 | Fountain of Youth S. | 8.5f | 143.33 | Finish: 1 | Field: 9

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8. Emerging Market (6-1)

• Color / Sex: Chestnut Colt
• Bred / By: Kentucky / Stoneriggs Farm
• Sire – Dam (Damsire): Candy Ride (ARG) – Wild Empress, by Empire Maker
• Starts-Wins-Places-Shows / Earnings: 3-2-0-0 / $618,880
• Jockey / Trainer: Flavien Prat / Chad Brown
• Owner: Klaravich Stables, Inc.

Emerging Market entered the Kentucky Derby off of just two starts, pitting him against history as no Derby winner had two or fewer starts since Leonatus in 1883. Sitting in the second grouping early at Churchill, Emerging Market had a lane open up on the rail turning for home but came up empty as other late finishers had more left in the tank in the stretch. Even though he didn’t directly stalk the leaders in the Derby, Emerging Market still ran far closer to the pace than the other Derby returnees here, which ultimately led to a lesser performance. A better ground-saving trip could be all he needs to get back to his best, though he still faces others here who have stronger speed figures and stakes wins at the moment. His Louisiana Derby remains as one of the more visually impressive wins in this group, as he fought off the unrelenting Pavlovian in the late stretch while also finishing ahead of Golden Tempo. The talent is certainly there to hit the board, but a career best effort is necessary to win against this tough group.

Key Races

• 5/2/2026 | Kentucky Derby | 10f | 202.27 | Finish: 10 | Field: 18

• 3/21/2026 | Louisiana Derby | 9.5f | 155.18 | Finish: 1 | Field: 9

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9. Golden Tempo (9-2)

• Color / Sex: Bay Colt
• Bred / By: Kentucky / Phipps Stable & St. Elias Stables, LLC
• Sire – Dam (Damsire): Curlin – Carrumba, by Bernardini
• Starts-Wins-Places-Shows / Earnings: 5-3-0-2 / $3,433,000
• Jockey / Trainer: Jose Ortiz / Cherie DeVaux
• Owner: Phipps Stable and St. Elias Stable

A consistent runner in his career, Golden Tempo started his career at the Fair Grounds and competed in three points races there, including a win in the Lecomte. After back-to-back thirds in the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby, this colt made it into the Kentucky Derby as an under-the-radar closer who needed early pace to win. With honest early fractions set by Six Speed, Golden Tempo was able to make a late charge from dead last to score the upset win in a race that often favors late finishers. With his form clearly suited for the classic distance, this second go-around at ten furlongs may be even tougher, as Saratoga tends to be speed favoring with tough competition that has had time to improve since early May. He is unlikely to get the same pace scenario here, but can still prove that he is a top three-year-old with a strong performance against this classy group. Hitting the board in all five of his tries thus far, Golden Tempo should be making a late run with Renegade again but needs another topflight performance and ride to capture the third jewel of the Triple Crown.

Key Races

• 5/2/2026 | Kentucky Derby | 10f | 202.27 | Finish: 1 | Field: 18

• 3/21/2026 | Louisiana Derby | 9.5f | 155.18 | Finish: 3 | Field: 9

• 2/14/2026 | Risen Star | 9f | 149.14 | Finish: 3 | Field: 8

• 1/17/2026 | Lecomte S. | 8.5f | 144.98 | Finish: 1 | Field: 10 | Race#: 14

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