In which we pick the races from Laurel Park each day…

First post time: 11:25 a.m.

Carryovers: 
Chesapeake Jackpot Pick 6 (races 4-9) — $5,567
Jackpot Super High 5 (race 6)— $0
Early Pick 5 (races 1-5) — $0
Late Pick 5 (races 4-9) — $0

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RACE 1: MAIDEN CLAIMING $12,500, 3-6-YEAR-OLDS, 1 MILE

1-8-5-7

Taking a low price on an 0-for-27 horse in a bottom-level maiden claiming race is rarely an exercise in sound judgement. However, #1 Tell ‘Em I’m Comin (2-1) is an exception to that rule. He’s faced much better horses throughout the year and has more than held his own against them. He’s run a brisnet figure of at least 77 in his last six dirt starts in Maryland, vastly superior numbers to almost anyone else’s. He’d have to run way down to his competition to be at serious risk of losing. #8 Christmas Spirit (5-2) is an appropriately-named horse, considering this is the last day before everyone can dive into Christmas celebrations without hesitation. He ran a game second at this level last out behind gate-to-wire winner Real Talented, who walked on an easy pace and is better than any rival here except Tell ‘Em I’m Comin. He was a bit more forwardly-placed than usual that day, so he might have some early speed that could prove fruitful in a race without much of it. #5 Railroad Inn (6-1) has hit the board in three of his last four starts, including a solid third last out behind two runaway rivals. He’s making his first start at a mile after previously competing almost exclusively at six furlongs.

RACE 2: CLAIMING $7,500 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS

3-1-5-7

#3 P J’s Song (9-5) won going away two starts back at Delaware Park, then got up for second in his first local start in a while last out behind runaway winner Laddie Dance. He should sit a perfect trip just off the pace and take advantage. #5 Pudge Boy Palace (3-1) returns to six furlongs after primarily competing at a mile or longer throughout the year. He battled on the pace last out at a mile and faded, but might have an easier time getting to the front here. He also gets Yedsit Hazlewood, who rode him to victory in late April, back aboard. #1 Keeping It Country (5-2) got caught wide throughout last out at Penn National, but still had some late interest and finished second. He has the best sustained pace in this race, and his inside draw will help him save more ground.

RACE 3: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $25,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 5 1/2 FURLONGS (GRASS)

4-8-6-2

After three consecutive runner-up tries, #4 El Tinmarin (9-2) broke through to win on grass two starts back, coming off a strong pace to prevail first off the Jamie Ness claim. He wasn’t much of a factor going two turns on dirt last out, but now cuts back and switches back to grass. Martin Chuan, who rode him to victory two starts ago, gets back aboard; he’s won at a 21% clip with his grass mounts. #8 War Humor (3-1) overcame an awkward start to win against first-level rivals last out, for his second consecutive grass win. He’s been in improving form on grass throughout the year and is in prime position to cap his grass season with a win. #6 Twirling Express (10-1) tends to run the same race every time. He drops way off the pace and flies, but falls short. The same thing is likely to happen here, but he should go off at a decent price, and as such is a must-use in horizontal bets.

RACE 4: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $25,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 7 FURLONGS

4-5-8-1

#4 Don’t Fool With Me (9-2) made her third start off a 10 ½-month layoff, and first start off the Mark Shuman claim, last out. She got up for third behind Nancy Mary and Seaside Road, who are much better than anyone else in this field. She has some early speed, keeps Martin Chuan aboard, and may not have run her best race yet. #5 Centsamilla (6-1) has tons of early speed and is both lightly-raced and quickly improving. This is her first start beyond six furlongs; we’ll see how long she’s able to sustain her speed. #8 Arise My Love (3-1) finished second in each of her three dirt starts earlier in the year, running in the 70s twice in that stretch. This will be her first start on this surface since June 1 following a plethora of grass starts. She has great closing speed and looks well-suited for this distance.

RACE 5: CLAIMING $7,500 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 MILE

2-9-6-10

#2 Ribbonsinherhair (5-2) won easily at Delaware two starts ago. Last out, she pressed the pace and finished a well-clear second to Genieinabridle, a four-time winner on the year, with a season’s-best mark of 81. This one’s worked well since then, keeps Martin Chuan aboard for Jamie Ness, and looks like strictly the one to beat. It’s not often you see a horse at 30-1 on the morning line who recently won at a very similar condition, but that’s the case with both #9 Watch Your Tone (30-1) and #6 Dubstep (30-1). The former beat a similar field two starts ago, including Loving Cup, who was coming off of back-to-back wins. This one did nothing last out behind Genieinabridle and Ribbonsinherhair, but has worked three times since then and looks ready to bounce back. If you’re willing to forgive that last effort, you’ll get a tremendous price. The latter doesn’t have as high of a ceiling, but won going away last out and has both tactical speed and strong late pace figures.

RACE 6: MAIDEN CLAIMING $16,000, 3-6-YEAR-OLDS, 1 1/16 MILES (GRASS)

3-4-6-1

Here’s another case of a chronic maiden dropping into a spot that they almost have to win. #3 Oxford Union (5-1) is 0-for-16 lifetime, but has run in the 70s in his last five grass starts while battling better rivals than these. He was no factor against $25,000 maidens last out, but now drops a notch and gets Ismerio Villalobos, who has done well with his grass mounts this year, in the saddle for the first time. #4 Renfro’s Reception (4-1) made his second career start, and first one on grass, last out. He pressed eventual winner Redemption Speight on the lead and faded to sixth. Still, he improved slightly from his career debut to earn a 74, and should turn in another improved effort here. #6 Efficacy (8-1) closed well for second with a career-best 75 in his first two-turn start in a while last out. He’s woken up in two starts since joining Joanne Shankle’s barn in September, as he continues to rediscover the promise he hinted at in the beginning of his career.

RACE 7: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W2X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS

3-5-7-2

#3 Bolt of Aurum (4-1) was well-beaten last out at Parx, but still ran a decent 85, not a bad figure considering it was his first race in almost a year. Last fall, before going to the sidelines, he crushed a first-level field by eight lengths with a very impressive 102. He adds blinkers second off the bench for an increasingly hot Jorge Duarte stable, and looks ready to return to his peak form. #5 Heard On Thestreet (9-2) won at this level three starts ago at Timonium, then ran a game third two races ago behind the very classy Rominski and Twisted Ride. He’s taking a class drop after finishing up the track in the Maryland Million Sprint and has put in a good workout since then (his first timed workout in 10 months). #7 Tenebris (6-1) has also won against second-level rivals this year, having done so here in mid-February. He’s raced just once since late March, a big effort at Colonial Downs in September in which he raced on a destructive pace and hung around for fourth. His last few timed drills have been very sharp.

RACE 8: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, MD-RESTRICTED, 1 MILE (GRASS)

13-11-3-2

#13 Dalinar (3-1) has competed primarily in sprints this year, but did wire a field at a mile and 70 yards at Delaware in mid-June. He has by far the best early pace figures in this race, and it looks as if he’ll be able to set the fractions he wants and leave them reeling. On the other side of the coin, #11 Nothingbutbluesky (10-1) has easily the best late pace figures in this contest, and is one of two to run in the 80s in each of their last three starts. Last out against a better first-level field, he had horse but nowhere to run at the top of the stretch, then made a decent late showing once he had more room to run and lost by 2 ¼ lengths. #3 Davyjonz (7-2) has been getting better with each recent grass start and should work out a good trip close to the early pace.

RACE 9: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $25,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS

7-6-1-5

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