Nick's Picks: Colonial Downs picks July 23, 2025 * The Racing Biz

Nick’s Picks: Colonial Downs picks July 23, 2025

The Biz
July 22, 2025

He’s probably the only public handicapper who’s ‘capped every race at Colonial Downs since Day One, and he’s back for more in 2025: Nick’s Picks returns with picks and analysis for every day of the Colonial meet.

DATE/POST TIME:
RACES: 12
CARRYOVERS: Pick 5, $26,901; Pick 6, $1,370

RACE 1

Colonial opens its third week of live racing with a filly and mare turf sprint for three-year-olds and nonwinners of three.

2. Ithinkiloveyou	Of the two Farrior entries in this group, this four-year-old has more development and turf experience that recently won twice.
1. Jewish Mother	A recent claim of Ferris Allen, has won her last two and shown consistency on the turf throughout. Lopez has seven meet wins.
5. Sally’s Gold	The recent switch to turf has been an uptick for Karamanos’ mount, who may be side-by-side with Toledo’s mount most of the race.

RACE 2

Bucking a trend, the two dirt winners on Saturday were off the pace. Here nonwinners of two claimers go a one-turn dirt mile.

8. Miss Serafina	Toss the turf start out in her last race and Robb’s filly shows some speed that may survive a race without a whole lotta of pace.
1. My Sugar Boo	If Saturday is becoming more of a trend, then Aguirre’s experienced filly may benefit from just off the pace. Toss the turf start.
2. Chase by the Moon	Bailes’s filly needs a better start than her last two and more like her third race back. Recent works check out.

RACE 3

A turf sprint for three-year-olds and nonwinners of two with a full field of twelve and several challengers on the AE list.

8. Beyond Question	Trombetta’s filly, a homebred of the late Larry Johnson, nearly broke her maiden at Colonial last year before losing to a good filly.
5. She’s No Uncle	One of several here that broke her maiden on the off-track dirt, Ness’s filly returns to turf where she ran her career best.
2. Diane Lee	Milosevic brings back Boyce to ride a maiden that may figure the turf out with a drop in class. Pedigree for turf confirms.

RACE 4

A rare mile-and-a-quarter on the turf for three-year-old maidens, none of whom has seen this distance before.

2. Astar	Motion and Curtis team up on a well-bred colt by Oscar Performance that may not have experience but the team sure has.
8. Orator	Shug’s colt has a little more experience and showed a late closing kick in his last start that makes be reconsider my first choice.
5. Curved	An improved outing on the Florida synthetic after a few disappointments on state-bred turf. Could Saffie’s colt be figuring it out?

RACE 5

Another packed field of turf sprinters, this time Virginia-restricted distaff maidens, with most starters either experienced or first-timers.

3. Drifting	Should Larry Johnson’s filly win the third race, Bentley’s front-end runner may look better versus those without sustainable speed.
9. Grosse Ile	One that may push Bentley’s filly, this Bailes trainee’s speed not only showed up in her only two starts on turf but also in a muddy work.
1. Citified	The first-time starter has City of Light pedigree on her side and a family connection between the trainer and jockey.

RACE 6

After the Virginia Derby, we all now know where the starting point is for a 1 1/8 miles on the dirt. Optional claimers here.

4. Start Mo Up	One of four in this field with 2025 wins at Churchill Downs around two turns. Speed may hold up going around one.
1. Lured Away	Taking track geometry and perhaps pace out of it, McPeek’s colt has shown the most talent when looking at ratings.
2. La Houligan	Not much of a difference between Compton’s colt and McPeek’s colt, who both ran similar races in their Churchill wins.

NICK’S NOTES

Picks continue below.
Check out the Colonial jockey and trainer stats through two weeks of the meet.
Upstarts knocked off odds-on favorites in two Saturday stakes…
Jockey Axel Concepcion won three times on Saturday, scoring aboard Disco Rules ($3.00) for trainer Riley Mott, Graydaria ($13.20) for Michael Tomlinson, and Sheila’s Lion ($17.60) for Keith Desormeaux…
Trainer Mike Trombetta won twice. He won the Glenn Petty Stakes with Noquestionaboutit ($10.60) with Jorge Ruiz in the irons, and he also took an earlyier maiden event with Hark Theangelssing ($84.40). Ismerio Villalobos did the honors in the latter race…

RACE 7

A dozen claimers go a turf mile where many of the more talented are still looking for their first 2025 win.

12. Mainstream Sellout	Saville has brought some nice horses to Colonial over the years; season bow for this miss, who won here last year
9. Next Episode	With a win, Schoenthal’s mare will have won at least one race in each of Colonial’s last four seasons. Shortens up slighlty from July 11 contest.
10. Maximo Madness	Allen’s filly got caught wide in her 2025 Colonial debut but has shown previous preference for the turf.

RACE 8

In another lengthy turf route on the card, fillies and mares go 1 3/16 miles with a lot of closers among in an a-other-than allowance.

5. Chantilly Road	Improving Russell Quality Road filly returns Sheldon to try to kick home like last time aboard. Maybe not Brown stakes level but competitive.
6. Bottle Rocket	Trombetta’s well traveled filly is well-bred for turf and on the outer turf will be making a bid late. Paco rides for the first time.
8. Love Song	Stidham’s filly has shown some talent on the turf although the three-year-old’s win came in off-turf route.

RACE 9

Virginia-restricted females go 1 1/16 miles over turf in an allowance, including several who won at Colonial Downs last summer.

1. Public Defender	With a Colonial win, Curtis rides for Cibelli after another win that was pulled off-turf. Won’t be far off and will close.
5. Venomous Vixen	Not the best summer at Colonial as a three-year-old yet Russell’s filly just won off a layoff on the turf.
6. Camanoe	Thomas brings a Catholic Boy filly East and gives the mount to Sheldon, look for an improved effort from the four-year-old.