Experts’ Kentucky Derby undercard stakes picks

  • userThe Biz
  • dateMay 3, 2025

Today’s blockbuster Kentucky Derby card — 14 races strong — includes plenty of top-quality stakes on the undercard. Among that: four Grade 1 contests in addition to the Derby, along with three other graded events.

We’ve reconvened our handicappers to discuss some of the biggest races on the card. Here’s what they came up with:

MORE KENTUCKY DERBY INFO

RACE 6: GRADE 2 PAT DAY MILE

Second-tier sophomores, including some Derby trail washouts, connect in this contest, always a fun race. Madaket Road is favored at 2-1.

Derby Bill WatsonJoseph AielloTed BlackEric RubinGary QuillNick HahnMackenzie Pfeiffer
1. Madaket Road5. Gate to Wire2. Built2. Built2. Built6. Gaming5. Gate to Wire
2. Built1. Madaket Road1. Madaket Road9. Perfect Force3. California Burrito1. Madaket Road3. California Burrito
6. Gaming4. Smoken Wicked6. Gaming6. Gaming5. Gate to Wire2. Built2. Built

RACE 7: GRADE 2 TURF SPRINT

Three-year-olds and up dash 5 1/2 furlongs on what figures to be wet turf. Nobals and One Timer are scratched, and Rogue Lightning is the lukewarm 7-2 favorite.

Derby Bill WatsonJoseph AielloTed BlackEric RubinGary QuillNick HahnMackenzie Pfeiffer
3. Nobals7. Think Big7. Think Big6. Run Carson3. Nobals7. Think Big7. Think Big
4. One Timer8. Rogue Lightning8. Rogue Lightning8. Rogue Lightning7. Think Big8. Rogue Lightning9. Boss Sully
1. Coppola4. One Timer9. Boss Sully4. One Timer4. One Timer3. Nobals5. Arrest Me Red

RACE 8: GRADE 1 CHURCHILL DOWNS

A strong field of 11 three-year-olds and up are signed on to go seven furlongs on the main track. The talented Maryland-bred Mindframe, whose only defeats have come in Grade 1 company, is the 3-1 morning line favorite. Rivals include the speedy New Jersey-bred Book’em Danno (8-1).

Derby Bill WatsonJoseph AielloTed BlackEric RubinGary QuillNick HahnMackenzie Pfeiffer
3. Book’em Danno7. Mindframe7. Mindframe6. Extra Anejo10. Nysos2. Banishing10. Nysos
1. Just Steel10. Nysos11. Mullikin2. Banishing11. Mullikin7. Mindframe6. Extra Anejo
5. Tejano Twist11. Mullikin10. Nysos11. Mullikin4. Giant Mischief3. Book’em Danno3. Book’em Danno

RACE 9: GRADE 1 AMERICAN TURF

A big field of sophomores are slated to tackle the Churchill lawn in this 1 1/16-mile contest. New Century (3-1) is favored, while Charlie’s to Blame, Spirit Rags, A. P. Kid, and Discreet Dancer are scratched.

Derby Bill WatsonJoseph AielloTed BlackEric RubinGary QuillNick HahnMackenzie Pfeiffer
6. Maximum Promise10. Iron Man Cal10. Iron Man Cal7. Zulu Kingdom5. Test Score5. Test Score7. Zulu Kingdom
7. Zulu Kingdom3. New Century2. Scipio5. Test Score7. Zulu Kingdom3. New Century5. Test Score
9. Giocoso2. Scipio3. New Century1. Warlander10. Iron Man Cal2. Scipio3. New Century

RACE 10: GRADE 1 DERBY CITY DISTAFF

Ways and Means headlines this group of fillies and mares set to sprint seven furlongs that’s been battered a bit by six scratches. That still leaves a field of 10, though.

Derby Bill WatsonJoseph AielloTed BlackEric RubinGary QuillNick HahnMackenzie Pfeiffer
14. Taxed2. Kopion7. Vahva2. Kopion1. Scylla9. Emery8. Ways and Means
6. Mystic Lake8. Ways and Means8. Ways and Means13. My Mane Squeeze13. My Mane Squeeze11. Positano Sunset9. Emery
7. Vahva13. My Mane Squeeze6. Mystic Lake11. Positano Sunset7. Vahva8. Ways and Means5. Haulin Ice

RACE 11: GRADE 1 TURF CLASSIC

Idratherbeblessed and Brilliant Berti are scratched, leaving a field of 10 four-year-olds and up to contest this nine-furlong turf test. The lead-in to the big one, this contest features 2023 Virginia Derby winner Integration, the 4-1 morning line favorite, along with Virginia-bred Gigante, winner of the 2023 Secretariat at Colonial Downs.

Derby Bill WatsonJoseph AielloTed BlackEric RubinGary QuillNick HahnMackenzie Pfeiffer
1. Integration7. Running Bee10. Spirit of St Louis8. Cameo Performance10. Spirit of St Louis12. Gigante10. Spirit of St Louis
10. Spirit of St Louis1. Integration1. Integration10. Spirit of St Louis1. Integration1. Integration1. Integration
11. Brilliant Berti4. Redistricting2. Gold Phoenix2. Gold Phoenix6. Taking Candy5. Idratherbeblessed7. Running Bee

OUR HANDICAPPERS ARE:

  • Nick Hahn, author of the eponymous Nick’s Picks for Colonial Downs.
  • Eric Rubin, host of Better Betting podcast
  • Gary Quill, co-host of Better Betting and former The Racing Biz Maryland handicapper
  • Derby Bill Watson, legendary former Colonial Downs on-air analylyst
  • Joseph Aiello handicaps Saratoga for The Racing Biz.
  • Ted Black is the Charles Town correspondent for The Racing Biz.
  • Mackenzie Pfeiffer is an on-air analyst for the Maryland Jockey Club

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