Laurel Park picks and ponderings: October 5, 2024
In which we pick the races from Laurel Park each day…
Post time: 12:25 p.m.
Carryovers:
Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 — $499
Jackpot Super High 5 — $1,078
Late Pick 5 — $0
Check out our other handicapping here!
RACE 1: CLAIMING $45,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 5 1/2 FURLONGS
1-8-2-7
This is probably the only scheduled grass race of the day that benefits from a surface switch. Many of these have excellent dirt form. #1 Lost and Confused (8-1) ran a career-best brisnet mark of 93 last out when he rallied wide and got up to beat Pennsylvania-bred allowance rivals at Parx. It’s an outlier from the rest of his form, but he had shown improvement throughout the season. #8 Full Irish (7-2) looked like a budding Maryland-bred star at the start of the year, winning back-to-back races with figures in the 90s. He hasn’t been seen since a flat third-place effort in late February, and now finds a soft spot in which to make his return. #2 Wickline (3-1) won impressively in gate-to-wire style last out at Colonial Downs, and makes his first start off the Andres Garibay claim from Brittany Russell.
RACE 2: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $20,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 6 FURLONGS
5-2-3-6
#5 Our Liberty Belle (4-1) foes first off the Jamie Ness claim, after another slowly-improvef effort at this level last out. She ran in the 80s twice towards the end of last year, and looks as if she’s working her way back into that form. #2 Anonymously (2-1) gets a much-needed drop in class, and should be hard to hold off with her usual stalking trip. #3 Bound by Destiny (3-1) showed speed and held third at this level last out with an 88, her best figure in months.
RACE 3: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $20,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 MILE
8-9-4-13
#8 Kerness (9-5) won in easy gate-to-wire style at Delaware Park last out, and should be on for an easy stroll against these types. #9 Business Model (12-1) gobbled up ground last out after falling far behind, but would muster no matter than fourth. Still, he should improve in his second start back on the circuit following a summer sojourn at Louisiana Downs. #4 Naked and Famous (7-2) started tailing off towards the start of the summer, and didn’t do much first off a brief freshening. He’ll hope to take a step forward here; if he does, he’ll be tough.
RACE 4: CLAIMING $20,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/16 MILES
1A-3-4-2
#1A Kick Startness (8-5) has won his last three races by a combined 25 1/4 lengths, winning in gate-to-wire fashion every time. There’s no reason to believe today will be any different. #3 Workislife (3-1) was scratched from a $12,500 spot a few days ago in favor of this spot. He’s won tow of his last three starts, including a sharp come-from-behind victory at Charles Town last out, and should pick up the pieces after Kick Startness runs away from them. #4 Motskari (9-2) has run his three best figures within his last five starts, and should rate a good trip near the leaders.
RACE 5: CLAIMING $20,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 MILE
14-9-7-4
#14 Le Griffon (15-1) ran a respectable 75 in the slop on Memorial Day weekend at Monmouth Park, by far his best dirt start. He gets the nod in a race without much dirt form. #9 Rapper Zapper (20-1) was scratched from the same spot as Workislife the other day to run here. He also ran a 75 in his most recent dirt try, which came in February on this strip, and has shown good late speed in recent grass tries. #7 Silverbullettwenty (12-1) ran in the 80s with some consistency going shorter over the winter; we’ll see how he does at today’s distance.
RACE 6: CLAIMING $30,000 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS
3-7-1-4
#3 Gentle Breeze (7-2) improved sharply second off an 11-month layoff last out, stepping up nine points to an 83 with a pace-pressing second. He ran huge races as a 2-year-old in Florida last year, and looks like he’s rounding back into that form. #7 Nancy Made My Day (15-1) scratched out of an off-the-grass spot to run here. He ran some promising races against better earlier in the year, with a peak figure of 87, but has tailed off in his last few. A switch back to dirt and a drop in class on this surface might wake him up. #1 Aaraj (2-1) has chased the pace and gotten second in two starts since coming back off a six-month layoff. His figures are in the mixnwith the other contenders, but Rick Dutrow horses tend to get overbet down here.
RACE 7: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT, 2-YEAR-OLDS, 1 MILE
6-9-14-4
#6 Real Eleve (9-5) was entered as a main-track-only for his debut, a sign that Brittany Russell thinks he’s better-suited for dirt than grass. He’ shown a long, steady worktab since mid-June, including a strong drill from the gate on September 29. I’ll watch the board with him. #9 Kitty’s Son (6-1) showed speed and stopped in last Saturday’s Laurel Futurity. It was the first time he showed that much early foot, and speed like that here might be good enough to wire these. #14 Pay Billy (15-1) finished a strong third on debut at Delaware despite ducking in late, and gets a much-needed addition of blinkers.
RACE 8: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W1X), 2-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 7 FURLONGS
5-6-1-2
#5 Wynsome Cat (5-2) broke her maiden in professional style last out, sitting the trip and kicking away for the victory with a 78. That’s not far below the 82 #6 Daze (4-5) ran on her debut win, and Wynsome Cat is likely to be a much better price. #1 Vino Limone (12-1) may be the best alternative to the two chalks. She gobbled up ground in debut and won by a nose, then faded going two turns in the Sorority Stakes next out. This distance should be more to her liking.
RACE 9: MAIDEN CLAIMING $30,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 MILE
7-9-11-3
#7 Dropping Lemons (8-1) showed speed and held second at this level last out. She faces a similar field here, and should last for a long time on the front end. #9 X Gene (8-1) faded after a wide trip last out, but ran a solid second on debut at Timonium two starts ago. Her backers will hope that version of her shows up here. #11 Mer Soleil (6-1) drops to this level for the first time, and seeks improvement second time on the circuit and first time on dirt.
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